SIO: ALICIA - Post-Tropical

[mrbagyo]

92S INVEST 201109 0600 3.0S 90.0E SHEM 15 0

 https://twitter.com/WXappraiser/status/1325378664482054145

[TorSkk]

Under the impulse of a strong wave activity ahead of a positive MJO currently approaching the
African continent, a favourable context for cyclogenesis is present set up on the East of the basin.
The 0329UTC ASCAT swath show a still wide but closed clockwise circulation around 3°S/95°E.
In this favorable context, the different models reinforce this circulation during the next few days,
which is contrary to the more westerly circulation described in the paragraph above.
In this perspective of preferring this circulation at the eastern end of the basin, this weak system
should find environmental conditions rather favorable for its development and thus present a
moderate risk of formation of a moderate tropical storm within 3 to 4 days.
Examination of the next runs will make it possible to favor one or the other of the two circulations.

The risk of formation of a moderate tropical storm is moderate from Friday between the
Chagos Archipelago and the East of the basin.

[aspen]

Every single global model develops this within the next few days. There’s also modest agreement on at least a C1-intensity system.

[mrbagyo]

92S INVEST 201110 1200 3.6S 91.2E SHEM 15 1007

[underthwx]

Do WPAC systems have the same Category 1-5 classifications?...

[ElectricStorm]

Do WPAC systems have the same Category 1-5 classifications?...

Yeah from the JTWC they do. Some other places like Australia have thier own scale

[underthwx]

Do WPAC systems have the same Category 1-5 classifications?...

Yeah from the JTWC they do. Some other places like Australia have thier own scale

Yes, i was unsure if JTWC covered Australia as well...thanks for your reply!

[TorSkk]

This is the scale used by Meteo France which covers the basin (west of 90 degrees east)

[mrbagyo]

[mrbagyo]

ZCZC 436
WTIO30 FMEE 130036
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)
0.A WARNING NUMBER: 3/1/20202021
1.A TROPICAL DEPRESSION 1
2.A POSITION 2020/11/13 AT 0000 UTC:
WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 5.2 S / 85.0 E
(FIVE DECIMAL TWO DEGREES SOUTH AND
EIGHTY FIVE DECIMAL ZERO DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT: WEST 10 KT
3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 2.5/2.5/D 1.0/12 H
4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 999 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 30 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW): 93 KM
6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 100 SE: 100 SW: 100 NW: 100
7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1008 HPA / 700 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP
1.B FORECASTS:
12H: 2020/11/13 12 UTC: 5.8 S / 83.0 E, VENT MAX= 035 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 110 SE: 250 SW: 230 NW: 110
34 KT NE: 40 SE: 100 SW: 110 NW: 90
48 KT NE: 0 SE: 0 SW: 0 NW: 0
64 KT NE: 0 SE: 0 SW: 0 NW: 0
24H: 2020/11/14 00 UTC: 7.4 S / 80.7 E, VENT MAX= 045 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 120 SE: 260 SW: 230 NW: 110
34 KT NE: 40 SE: 110 SW: 120 NW: 90
48 KT NE: 0 SE: 0 SW: 0 NW: 0
64 KT NE: 0 SE: 0 SW: 0 NW: 0
36H: 2020/11/14 12 UTC: 9.4 S / 78.3 E, VENT MAX= 060 KT, SEVERE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 130 SE: 260 SW: 230 NW: 110
34 KT NE: 60 SE: 110 SW: 120 NW: 90
48 KT NE: 50 SE: 60 SW: 50 NW: 40
64 KT NE: 0 SE: 0 SW: 0 NW: 0
48H: 2020/11/15 00 UTC: 11.4 S / 76.0 E, VENT MAX= 075 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 140 SE: 270 SW: 230 NW: 110
34 KT NE: 60 SE: 120 SW: 130 NW: 90
48 KT NE: 50 SE: 60 SW: 50 NW: 60
64 KT NE: 30 SE: 30 SW: 30 NW: 60
60H: 2020/11/15 12 UTC: 13.7 S / 74.3 E, VENT MAX= 060 KT, SEVERE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 150 SE: 280 SW: 230 NW: 110
34 KT NE: 60 SE: 130 SW: 130 NW: 90
48 KT NE: 50 SE: 60 SW: 60 NW: 40
64 KT NE: 0 SE: 0 SW: 0 NW: 0
72H: 2020/11/16 00 UTC: 15.8 S / 73.6 E, VENT MAX= 050 KT, SEVERE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 170 SE: 290 SW: 230 NW: 110
34 KT NE: 60 SE: 140 SW: 140 NW: 100
48 KT NE: 60 SE: 60 SW: 60 NW: 40
64 KT NE: 0 SE: 0 SW: 0 NW: 0
2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK:
96H: 2020/11/17 00 UTC: 18.4 S / 73.1 E, VENT MAX= 035 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 190 SE: 300 SW: 230 NW: 110
34 KT NE: 80 SE: 150 SW: 150 NW: 100
48 KT NE: 0 SE: 0 SW: 0 NW: 0
64 KT NE: 0 SE: 0 SW: 0 NW: 0
120H: 2020/11/18 00 UTC: 20.4 S / 71.7 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT, FILLING
UP
28 KT NE: 200 SE: 310 SW: 230 NW: 110
34 KT NE: 0 SE: 0 SW: 0 NW: 0
48 KT NE: 0 SE: 0 SW: 0 NW: 0
64 KT NE: 0 SE: 0 SW: 0 NW: 0
2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATION:
T=CI=2.5
THE CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY CONTINUES TO STRENGTHEN AROUND TROPICAL
DEPRESSION 01-20202021 SINCE THE LAST 6 HOURS DEFINING A CURVED BAND
PATTERN. HOWEVER, THE LAST AMRS2 DATA FROM 1944UTC SHOW THAT THE
CIRCULATION IS STILL WIDE. BY DVORAK ANALYSIS OF 2.5, THE MAXIMUM
WINDS ARE THEN ESTIMATED AT 30KT QUITE FAR FROM THE CENTER AND MAINLY
IN THE SOUTHERN SEMICIRCLE.
NO CHANGE IN TERMS OF FORECAST. THE TROPICAL DEPRESSION 01-20202021
CONTINUES TO MOVE WESTWARD, GUIDED BY THE FLOW GENERATED BY THE
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE. THE SYSTEM SHOULD ACCELERATE ITS SOUTHWESTWARD
MOVEMENT OVER THE NEXT 18 HOURS. UNDER THE IMPULSE OF THE DYNAMICS
FURTHER SOUTH, THE RIDGE IS GRADUALLY SHIFTING EASTWARD AND WILL
ALLOW A NORTHERLY DIRECTIONAL FLOW FROM SUNDAY ONWARDS. THE NUMERICAL
MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON THIS GLOBAL TRACK. FURTHER, THE
UNCERTAINTY BECOMES MORE IMPORTANT IN RELATION WITH THE WEAK STEERING
FLOW, LETTING THE SYSTEM MOVE MORE SLOWLY.
ON THIS TRACK, THE ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE VERY FAVOURABLE OVER
THE NEXT 2 DAYS. THE CIRCULATION NEAR THE CENTER IS NOT YET SOLIDLY
ESTABLISHED AND THEREFORE THE INTENSIFICATION IS NOT REALLY FRANK
BEFORE THE NEXT 12 HOURS. ONCE THIS CIRCULATION IS MORE CONCENTRATED
AND THANKS TO A VERY GOOD DIVERGENCE, LITTLE SHEAR AND A VERY STRONG
OCEANIC POTENTIAL, THE INTENSIFICATION OF THE SYSTEM WILL BE MORE
NOTICEABLE FROM SATURDAY. AT THE END OF THE WEEKEND, HOWEVER,
CONDITIONS SHOULD DETERIORATE WITH A SIGNIFICANT DROP IN OCEAN
POTENTIAL SOUTH OF 15S AND A SIGNIFICANT INCREASE OF THE
WEST-NORTHWESTERLY SHEAR, LEADING TO AN IMPORTANT WEAKENING PHASE OF
THE INTENSITY OF THE SYSTEM WHICH WILL HAVE REACHED THE THRESHOLD OF
A TROPICAL CYCLONE.=
NNNN

[aspen]

The HWRF has been consistently forecasting a compact 950s major. With that kind of structure, it’s possible it will exceed the HWRF’s intensity.

[mrbagyo]

WTXS21 PGTW 120930
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT (INVEST 92S)//
RMKS/
1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
160 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 4.5S 89.7E TO 6.4S 82.0E WITHIN
THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY ISSUANCE
OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME. WINDS IN THE
AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 25 TO 30 KNOTS. METSAT IMAGERY AT
120600Z INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED NEAR 4.7S
89.0E. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD AT 07 KNOTS.
2. REMARKS: THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 92S) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED
NEAR 5.3S 88.8E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 4.7S 89.0E, APPROXIMATELY 991 NM
EAST OF DIEGO GARCIA. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY
DEPICTS FLARING DEEP CONVECTION AROUND A PARTIALLY EXPOSED, WELL-
DEFINED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) WITH ROBUST RADIAL
OUTFLOW. A 120720Z AMSR2 GW1 89GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE REVEALS
FRAGMENTED DEEP CONVECTIVE BANDING WRAPPING INTO THE LLCC FROM ALL
SIDES. 92S IS CURRENTLY IN A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH EXCELLENT
RADIAL OUTFLOW, LOW (10 TO 20 KNOTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR, AND WARM
(29 TO 30 CELSIUS) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES. GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN
GOOD AGREEMENT THAT 92S WILL TRACK WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD, INTENSIFYING
TO WARNING THRESHOLD IN 12 TO 24 HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE
WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 25 TO 30 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS
ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1004 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A
SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS HIGH.
3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY
130930Z.//
NNNN

[mrbagyo]

[ElectricStorm]

Haven't been paying much attention to this system but I am now after seeing the 0z HWRF run... 954mb major at hour 57. That's pretty strong for a November storm down there...

[mrbagyo]

Still no renumbering ?

92S INVEST 201113 0000 5.0S 85.8E SHEM 30 1004

[mrbagyo]

[mrbagyo]

ZCZC 956
WTIO30 FMEE 131236
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)
0.A WARNING NUMBER: 5/1/20202021
1.A TROPICAL DEPRESSION 1
2.A POSITION 2020/11/13 AT 1200 UTC:
WITHIN 30 NM RADIUS OF POINT 6.1 S / 83.0 E
(SIX DECIMAL ONE DEGREES SOUTH AND
EIGHTY THREE DECIMAL ZERO DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT: SOUTH-WEST 7 KT
3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 2.5/2.5/D 1.0/24 H
4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 999 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 30 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW): NIL
6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 240 SE: 350 SW: 240 NW: 240
7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1008 HPA / 700 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: MEDIUM
1.B FORECASTS:
12H: 2020/11/14 00 UTC: 7.3 S / 80.8 E, VENT MAX= 040 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
24H: 2020/11/14 12 UTC: 9.3 S / 78.5 E, VENT MAX= 050 KT, SEVERE
TROPICAL STORM
36H: 2020/11/15 00 UTC: 11.6 S / 76.2 E, VENT MAX= 060 KT, SEVERE
TROPICAL STORM
48H: 2020/11/15 12 UTC: 14.0 S / 74.5 E, VENT MAX= 070 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
60H: 2020/11/16 00 UTC: 16.1 S / 74.0 E, VENT MAX= 070 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
72H: 2020/11/16 12 UTC: 17.4 S / 73.6 E, VENT MAX= 060 KT, SEVERE
TROPICAL STORM
2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK:
96H: 2020/11/17 12 UTC: 20.0 S / 72.2 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT, FILLING UP
120H: 2020/11/18 12 UTC: 22.9 S / 70.7 E, VENT MAX= 025 KT, FILLING
UP
2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATION:
T=CI=2.5
IN IR AND VIS IMAGERY, THE CLOUD PATTERN SHOWS SIGNS OF IMPROVEMENT
COMPARED TO YESTERDAY DESPITE WARMER IR CLOUD TOPS RELATED TO THE
CONVECTIVE DIURNAL CYCLE OVER OCEANIC REGION. THE AMSR2 IMAGERY OF
0801Z SUGGESTS THAT THE LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION IS BEGINNING TO
CONSOLIDATE. THE SYSTEM REMAINS ESTIMATED AT 30 KT IN THE HIGH RANGE
OF THE AVAILABLE SUBJECTIVE DVORAK ESTIMATES (BETWEEN 20-30 KT).
STILL NO CHANGE IN TERMS OF FORECAST PHILOSOPHY. TROPICAL DEPRESSION
01-20202021 CONTINUES TO BE GUIDED BY THE STEERING FLOW GENERATED BY
THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE. THE SYSTEM SHOULD SOON ACCELERATE ITS
SOUTHWESTWARD MOVEMENT. UNDER THE IMPULSE OF THE DYNAMICS FURTHER
SOUTH, THE RIDGE IS GRADUALLY SHIFTING EASTWARD AND WILL LEAVE A
NORTHWARD DIRECTED STEERING FLOW FROM SUNDAY ONWARDS. THE NUMERICAL
MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON THIS GLOBAL TRAJECTORY. FROM MONDAY
ONWARDS, THE UNCERTAINTY BECOMES IMPORTANT IN RELATION TO THE WEAK
STEERING FLOW AND THE EXISTENCE OF TWO POSSIBLE SCENARIOS: EVACUATION
IN THE EXTRA-TROPICAL DOMAIN OR FILLING UP IN THE TROPICAL DOMAIN
NORTH OF THE RECONSTRUCTED LOW-LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC BELT.
ON THIS TRACK, THE ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE VERY FAVOURABLE OVER
THE NEXT 2 DAYS. WITH THE HELP OF STRENGTHENING EQUATORIAL WESTERLY
WINDS, THE INTENSIFICATION OF THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO BECOME SOON
MORE NOTICEABLE WITH A VERY GOOD DIVERGENCE, LITTLE SHEAR AND A VERY
STRONG OCEANIC POTENTIAL. AT THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK, CONDITIONS
ARE EXPECTED TO DETERIORATE WITH INSUFFICIENT OCEANIC POTENTIAL SOUTH
OF 17S, GRADUALLY INCREASING SHEAR ASSOCIATED WITH DRY
MID-TROPOSPHERIC AIR INTRUSIONS.=
NNNN

[mrbagyo]

92S INVEST 201113 1200 6.4S 83.4E SHEM 30 1004

WTXS21 PGTW 130930
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT (INVEST 92S) REISSUED//
REF/A/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/120921ZNOV20//
AMPN/REF A IS TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT.//
RMKS/
1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
160 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 5.0S 84.8E TO 8.8S 78.4E WITHIN
THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY ISSUANCE
OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME. WINDS IN THE
AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 25 TO 30 KNOTS. METSAT IMAGERY AT
130600Z INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED NEAR 5.4S
84.2E. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD AT 14 KNOTS.
2. REMARKS: THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 92S) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED
NEAR 5.0S 87.8E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 5.4S 84.2E, APPROXIMATELY 711 NM
EAST OF DIEGO GARCIA. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY
DEPICTS WELL ORGANIZED DEEP CONVECTIVE STRUCTURE OVER A TIGHTENING
LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). A 130803Z AMSR2 GW1 89GHZ
MICROWAVE IMAGE REVEALS FRAGMENTED DEEP CONVECTIVE BANDING WRAPPING
INTO THE LLCC FROM THE NORTH AND SOUTH. A 130408Z METOP-B ASCAT PASS
SHOWS A SLIGHTLY ELONGATED LLCC WITH A LARGELY ASYMMETRIC WIND FIELD
CONTAINING 25 TO 30 KNOT WINDS TO THE SOUTH. 92S IS CURRENTLY IN A
FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH EXCELLENT RADIAL OUTFLOW, LOW (10 TO 15
KNOTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR, AND WARM (29 CELSIUS) SEA SURFACE
TEMPERATURES. GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT 92S WILL
TRACK SOUTHWESTWARD INTENSIFYING TO WARNING THRESHOL IN 12 TO 24
HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 25 TO 30
KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1000 MB.
THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS HIGH. THIS SUPERSEDES REF A (WTXS21 PGTW
120930).
3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY
140930Z.//
NNNN

[Extratropical94]

This has been upgraded to MTS Alicia by the way

WTIO30 FMEE 131846
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER: 6/1/20202021
1.A MODERATE TROPICAL STORM 1 (ALICIA)

2.A POSITION 2020/11/13 AT 1800 UTC:
WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 6.4 S / 80.8 E
(SIX DECIMAL FOUR DEGREES SOUTH AND
EIGHTY DECIMAL EIGHT DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT: WEST-SOUTH-WEST 14 KT

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 2.5/2.5/D 0.5/6 H

4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 997 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 35 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW): 74 KM

6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 130 SE: 370 SW: 220 NW: 130
34 KT NE: 70 SE: 240 SW: 0 NW: 0


7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1008 HPA / 700 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP

1.B FORECASTS:
12H: 2020/11/14 06 UTC: 7.8 S / 78.6 E, VENT MAX= 040 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
24H: 2020/11/14 18 UTC: 10.0 S / 76.3 E, VENT MAX= 050 KT, SEVERE
TROPICAL STORM
36H: 2020/11/15 06 UTC: 12.5 S / 74.4 E, VENT MAX= 065 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
48H: 2020/11/15 18 UTC: 15.0 S / 73.6 E, VENT MAX= 075 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
60H: 2020/11/16 06 UTC: 16.7 S / 73.2 E, VENT MAX= 065 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
72H: 2020/11/16 18 UTC: 18.0 S / 72.9 E, VENT MAX= 050 KT, SEVERE
TROPICAL STORM

2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK:
96H: 2020/11/17 18 UTC: 19.8 S / 72.4 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT, FILLING UP
120H: 2020/11/18 18 UTC: 23.6 S / 73.1 E, VENT MAX= 025 KT, FILLING
UP

2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATION:
T=CI=2.5+

OVER THE LAST SIX HOURS, CONVECTIVE ACTIVE INCREASED NEAR THE CENTER
WITH AN IMPROVING CURVATURE. 1530Z ASCAT SWATH CONFIRM THIS
IMPRESSION WITH WINDS REACHING GALE FORCE IN THE EASTERN SEMI-CIRCLE.
HOWEVER THE INNER CORE IS STILL QUITE BROAD AND ELONGATED WHICH MAY
SLOW THE DEEPENING RATE AT SHORT RANGE. THIS SYSTEM WAS THEREFORE
NAMED ALICIA BY THE MAURITIUS METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE AT 1730Z.

STILL NO CHANGE IN TERMS OF FORECAST PHILOSOPHY. ALICIA CONTINUES TO
BE GUIDED BY THE STEERING FLOW GENERATED BY THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE.
THE SYSTEM SHOULD SOON ACCELERATE ITS SOUTHWESTWARD MOVEMENT. UNDER
THE IMPULSE OF THE DYNAMICS FURTHER SOUTH, THE RIDGE IS GRADUALLY
SHIFTING EASTWARD AND WILL LEAVE A NORTHWARD DIRECTED STEERING FLOW
FROM SUNDAY ONWARDS. THE NUMERICAL MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON
THIS GLOBAL TRAJECTORY. FROM MONDAY ONWARDS, THE UNCERTAINTY BECOMES
IMPORTANT IN RELATION TO THE WEAK STEERING FLOW AND THE EXISTENCE OF
TWO POSSIBLE SCENARIOS: EVACUATION IN THE EXTRA-TROPICAL DOMAIN OR
FILLING UP IN THE TROPICAL DOMAIN NORTH OF THE RECONSTRUCTED
LOW-LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC BELT. THE FIRST ONE SEEMS MORE LIKELY FOR NOW.

ON THIS TRACK, THE ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE VERY FAVOURABLE OVER
THE NEXT 2 DAYS. WITH THE HELP OF STRENGTHENING EQUATORIAL WESTERLY
WINDS, A VERY GOOD DIVERGENCE, LITTLE SHEAR AND A VERY STRONG OCEANIC
POTENTIAL, ALICIA MAY REACH TROPICAL CYCLONE LEVEL ON SUNDAY. AT THE
BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK, CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO DETERIORATE WITH
INSUFFICIENT OCEANIC POTENTIAL SOUTH OF 17S, AND INCREASING SHEAR
ASSOCIATED GRADUALLY WITH DRY MID-TROPOSPHERIC AIR INTRUSIONS.

[mrbagyo]

01S ALICIA 201114 0000 7.4S 79.7E SHEM 45 997