ATL: IOTA - Models

[aspen]

HWRF gets this north faster than the official NHC cone, due to what seems to be some center reformations. It gets to around 15N by 42-48 hours. This run is likely to miss CA again.

[aspen]

18z HWRF is down to 945 mbar by 78 hours and misses the Nic-Hond “bump”, although it is further south than previous runs.

[Iceresistance]

18z HWRF is down to 945 mbar by 78 hours and misses the Nic-Hond “bump”, although it is further south than previous runs.

What is the cool pool looking like when this is expected to be this strong?

[Iceresistance]

18z HWRF is down to 945 mbar by 78 hours and misses the Nic-Hond “bump”, although it is further south than previous runs.

EDIT: Why has the HMON not started yet?

[ElectricStorm]

HWRF peaks at 940mb north of Honduras heading for Belize. Trending south so the NHC forecast track/intensity looks pretty good to me for now. No matter what happens it's likely going to be a disaster for CA unfortunately

[blp]

TVCN 00z plotted. You can see the delay now from previous plots. 72hrs still not inland.

[ElectricStorm]

0z GFS peaks at 960mb before landfall.

[ElectricStorm]

HMON stronger and more south than it's last run...927mb as it skirts Honduras to the north...
HWRF peaks at 942mb north of Honduras
I just can't imagine what the people of CA have gone through/will go through first with Eta, now Iota...

[kevin]

06z ICON landfalls at the Nicaragua/Honduras border, 72 hours. I have a hard time believing Iota will move so fast considering ICON initialized it at 13.4N, 75.7W but in reality Iota is now at 13.6N, 74.5W according to Tropical Tidbits. So ICON initialized more than 1 degree too far to the west. I think roughly 84 hours from now, which is about what the NHC has and also what 00z GFS showed, is more realistic.

Edit: GFS also just started and initialized at 13.7N, 74.6W so that's a pretty good initialization. We'll see what it does with Iota this time.

[kevin]

GFS peaks at 72 hours as 955 mbar, strongest GFS run for Iota to date. Then it stalls and makes landfall at the Nicaragua/Honduras border at 78 - 84 hours.

[kevin]

HMON is still north of the other models but it now also goes for a Honduras landfall at 78 hours. So we have most models with a Honduras/Nicaragua border landfall and HWRF/HMON with a landfall further north in Honduras. It seems that the latest southern center reformation makes a northern miss of Honduras more unlikely. Landfall seems to be 72 - 84 hours from now.
HMON peaks as a borderline cat 5, 932 mbar and 133 kts.

[underthwx]

HMON is still north of the other models but it now also goes for a Honduras landfall at 78 hours. So we have most models with a Honduras/Nicaragua border landfall and HWRF/HMON with a landfall further north in Honduras. It seems that the latest southern center reformation makes a northern miss of Honduras more unlikely. Landfall seems to be 72 - 84 hours from now.
HMON peaks as a borderline cat 5, 932 mbar and 133 kts.

https://i.imgur.com/iCJ9zqw.png

After CA...you thinking Iota is EPAC bound?

[kevin]

06z HWRF still north of Honduras by about the same margin as the previous run. Peaks with 943 mbar, 114 kts. So we have the HWRF solution which misses Honduras, the 'most other models' solutions at the Nicaragua/Honduras border and the inbetween HMON solution which is slightly delayed and into northern Honduras.

[kevin]

HMON is still north of the other models but it now also goes for a Honduras landfall at 78 hours. So we have most models with a Honduras/Nicaragua border landfall and HWRF/HMON with a landfall further north in Honduras. It seems that the latest southern center reformation makes a northern miss of Honduras more unlikely. Landfall seems to be 72 - 84 hours from now.
HMON peaks as a borderline cat 5, 932 mbar and 133 kts.

https://i.imgur.com/iCJ9zqw.png

After CA...you thinking Iota is EPAC bound?

It's possible, but I'm not that certain about it yet. The HWRF solution would of course not make this an EPAC storm and so is the case with HMON. Most other models do show a possibility, but they take it over pretty much all of Honduras and parts of Belize before reaching the EPAC so I'm not sure if there will be a lot left by that time. Usually the eventual solution is the inbetween option of most models. I don't think it'll get as far north as HWRF currently forecasts, but I think it might make landfall further north in Honduras like HMON is showing. In that case I highly doubt it'll get into the EPAC. But as I mentioned before, if both HMON and HWRF are completely wrong and it makes landfall at the border or even further south, there is definitely a possibility for it to get into the EPAC.

[underthwx]

HMON is still north of the other models but it now also goes for a Honduras landfall at 78 hours. So we have most models with a Honduras/Nicaragua border landfall and HWRF/HMON with a landfall further north in Honduras. It seems that the latest southern center reformation makes a northern miss of Honduras more unlikely. Landfall seems to be 72 - 84 hours from now.
HMON peaks as a borderline cat 5, 932 mbar and 133 kts.

https://i.imgur.com/iCJ9zqw.png

After CA...you thinking Iota is EPAC bound?

It's possible, but I'm not that certain about it yet. The HWRF solution would of course not make this an EPAC storm and so is the case with HMON. Most other models do show a possibility, but they take it over pretty much all of Honduras and parts of Belize before reaching the EPAC so I'm not sure if there will be a lot left by that time. Usually the eventual solution is the inbetween option of most models. I don't think it'll get as far north as HWRF currently forecasts, but I think it might make landfall further north in Honduras like HMON is showing. In that case I highly doubt it'll get into the EPAC. But as I mentioned before, if both HMON and HWRF are completely wrong and it makes landfall at the border or even further south, there is definitely a possibility for it to get into the EPAC.

Appreciate it Kevin....and good morning!

[cycloneye]

HWRF caved and now hits land but despite that is still the outlier.

[kevin]

12z ICON into northern Nicaragua, landfall at 69 hours and peaks with 970 mbar.

[aspen]

12z GFS has a nicely stacked TC within the next 24 hours.

[kevin]

12z GFS into the border, landfalls at 72 hours. Peaks at 956 mbar at 66 hours.

[chaser1]

Seems to me that ICON and UK are best initialized and trending southward with eventual landfall.