ATL: IOTA - Models

[kevin]

These should be interesting, here are the HWRF and HMON 12z overviews. I'll update them as the information comes in.

HWRF
Time (hr) / MSLP (mb) / Wind (kt)
00 / 1004 / 42
03 / 1002 / 40
06 / 995 / 46
09 / 989 / 58
12 / 989 / 55
15 / 988 / 54
18 / 986 / 56
21 / 981 / 63
24 / 982 / 63
27 / 983 / 62
30 / 977 / 60
33 / 973 / 58
36 / 970 / 73 <- cat 1
39 / 967 / 68
42 / 960 / 83
45 / 954 / 82
48 / 949 / 84 <- cat 2
51 / 949 / 86
54 / 947 / 93
57 / 942 / 102 <- cat 3
60 / 938 / 110
63 / 940 / 110
66 / 940 / 108
69 / 943 / 105 <- Honduras landfall, inland
72 / 948 / 101 - inland
---- inland

HMON
Time (hr) / MSLP (mb) / Wind (kt)
00 / 1006 / 32
03 / 1002 / 43
06 / 998 / 44
09 / 994 / 43
12 / 995 / 50
15 / 992 / 51
18 / 986 / 56
21 / 983 / 65 <- cat 1
24 / 983 / 69
27 / 980 / 70
30 / 976 / 70
33 / 973 / 71
36 / 967 / 74
39 / 962 / 76
42 / 956 / 86 <- cat 2
45 / 952 / 92
48 / 952 / 95
51 / 950 / 96 <- cat 3
54 / 945 / 103
57 / 937 / 109
60 / 930 / 136 <- cat 4
63 / 938 / 111 <- Nicaragua landfall, inland
66 / 957 / 66 - inland
---- inland

[aspen]

The HWRF seems to be overdoing EWRCs on this run. The first EWRC begins when this is just a newly intensified Cat 1, and the second one begins like 12-18 hours later.

[kevin]

All HWRF and HMON peaks so far:

HWRF
run / MSLP peak (mbar) / Wind peak (kt)
12z nov 13 / 943 / 114
18z nov 13 / 940 / 122
00z nov 14 / 942 / 116
06z nov 14 / 942 / 114
12z nov 14 / 938 / 110

HMON
run / MSLP peak (mbar) / Wind peak (kt)
12z nov 13 / 943 / 127
00z nov 14 / 927 / 125
06z nov 14 / 932 / 133
12z nov 14 / 930 / 136

[kevin]

18z HWRF and HMON. HMON shows rapid strengthening up until landfall with once again a high-end cat 4 now already at 54 hours. HMON shifted north by about 0.4 degrees compared to 12z so now a border landfall. HWRF is a bit faster and further south this time and already seems to have some land interaction at 48 - 51 hours which prevents further strengthening in the last hours before landfall but it still has a strong hurricane landfall near the Nicaragua/Honduras border.

HWRF
Time (hr) / MSLP (mb) / Wind (kt)
03 / 992 / 58
06 / 994 / 50
09 / 992 / 62
12 / 989 / 55
15 / 983 / 63
18 / 983 / 67 <- cat 1
21 / 982 / 79
24 / 978 / 69
27 / 973 / 81
30 / 971 / 88 <- cat 2
33 / 968 / 89
36 / 962 / 94
39 / 955 / 94
42 / 952 / 103 <- cat 3
45 / 950 / 98
48 / 947 / 97
51 / 946 / 96
54 / 948 / 94
57 / 951 / 92 <- border landfall, inland
60 / 955 / 77
--- inland

HMON
Time (hr) / MSLP (mb) / Wind (kt)
00 / 998 / 42
03 / 994 / 47
06 / 993 / 48
09 / 990 / 59
12 / 985 / 61
15 / 981 / 71 <- cat 1
18 / 980 / 68
21 / 978 / 79
24 / 972 / 91 <- cat 2
27 / 965 / 96 <- cat 3
30 / 964 / 86
33 / 960 / 82
36 / 955 / 105
39 / 954 / 103
42 / 952 / 104
45 / 945 / 114 <- cat 4
48 / 937 / 119
51 / 933 / 121
54 / 930 / 135
57 / 933 / 130
60 / 941 / 114 <- border landfall, inland
63 / 956 / 76 - inland
--- inland

[Deshaunrob17]

I've never been a big fan of hurricane models until this year.... They've surely improved in performance and they have been much more reliable than global model

Well the GFS PARA was the best in my opinion for global models

Iota seems to be be following the hurricane model’s predictions in terms of intensity

[kevin]

This thread will most likely go quiet now that Iota is ramping up and we're all moving to the discussion thread, but here's one (probably) last HWRF/HMON overview.

HWRF
Time (hr) / MSLP (mb) / Wind (kt)
00 / 987 / 62
03 / 981 / 61
06 / 980 / 65 <- cat 1
09 / 978 / 74
12 / 969 / 82
15 / 965 / 84 <- cat 2
18 / 962 / 91
21 / 959 / 96 <- cat 3
24 / 953 / 106
27 / 951 / 111
30 / 949 / 106
33 / 950 / 100
36 / 947 / 105
39 / 945 / 107
42 / 945 / 109
45 / 947 / 109
48 / 946 / 108
51 / 948 / 107 <- Honduras landfall, inland
54 / 953 / 104 - inland
--- inland

HMON
Time (hr) / MSLP (mb) / Wind (kt)
00 / 988 / 58
03 / 977 / 80 <- cat 1
06 / 971 / 86<- cat 2
09 / 970 / 87
12 / 968 / 93
15 / 964 / 98 <- cat 3
18 / 961 / 102
21 / 957 / 99
24 / 954 / 105
27 / 952 / 106
30 / 951 / 109
33 / 947 / 114 <- cat 4
36 / 943 / 115
39 / 939 / 126
42 / 937 / 127
45 / 938 / 124
48 / 941 / 116
51 / 948 / 104 <- Honduras landfall, inland
54 / 956 / 90 - inland
57 / 970 / 65 - inland
--- inland

[Iceresistance]

The HWRF seems to be overdoing EWRCs on this run. The first EWRC begins when this is just a newly intensified Cat 1, and the second one begins like 12-18 hours later.

It looks like the HWRF is spamming the code 'EWRC'

[supercane4867]

The sheer size of the system is making winds lagging behind pressure drop for now. A gigantic eye will eventually emerge if HWRF were to be believed.

[SconnieCane]

The sheer size of the system is making winds lagging behind pressure drop for now. A gigantic eye will eventually emerge if HWRF were to be believed.

https://i.imgur.com/tgl9Smt.png

We got our pinhole, now we get our mega-eye.

[Nimbus]

The HWRF seems to be overdoing EWRCs on this run. The first EWRC begins when this is just a newly intensified Cat 1, and the second one begins like 12-18 hours later.

It looks like the HWRF is spamming the code 'EWRC'

Hey its Sunday even computers can wishcast.

[Owasso]