ATL: IOTA - Remnants - Discussion

[kevin]

The mission is over. The next one departs at 9 PM EST.

At least it looks like they got their recon issues figured out, otherwise I don't think we'd have so much recon right now during Iota's early phase.

[Laminar]

One swallow does not a summer make...

[cycloneye]

Forecast again to become a major.

FORECAST VALID 16/1800Z 13.8N 82.2W
MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT.
64 KT... 20NE 20SE 10SW 20NW.
50 KT... 40NE 40SE 20SW 40NW.
34 KT...110NE 90SE 50SW 100NW.

FORECAST VALID 17/0600Z 14.0N 83.5W...INLAND
MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT.
50 KT... 40NE 40SE 30SW 40NW.
34 KT...120NE 90SE 60SW 100NW.

[Visioen]

Very deep convection increasing near the center.

[aspen]

If Iota is able to develop a pinhole structure like Delta and Eta before it, I think a phase of RI is possible sometime tomorrow. Iota has begun to look better on IR imagery and might be in the process of building a core, and even without one, it was experiencing some rather rapid pressure falls during this afternoon’s recon flight.

I’m going to estimate a final peak intensity somewhere between 915-940 mbar and 125-140 kt. Once Iota finishes developing a core, the low shear, 29C SSTs, and conductive UL environment should lead to yet another RIing major. Of course this thing seems insistent on hitting the exact areas devastated by Eta. 2020 has a sick sense of “humor”.

[galaxy401]

Looks like Iota is finally ready to take off now. Slow movement is going to help it.

[kevin]

IR is turning pink:

[ElectricStorm]

Forecast again to become a major.

FORECAST VALID 16/1800Z 13.8N 82.2W
MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT.
64 KT... 20NE 20SE 10SW 20NW.
50 KT... 40NE 40SE 20SW 40NW.
34 KT...110NE 90SE 50SW 100NW.

FORECAST VALID 17/0600Z 14.0N 83.5W...INLAND
MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT.
50 KT... 40NE 40SE 30SW 40NW.
34 KT...120NE 90SE 60SW 100NW.

That forecast likely has it getting to 105kts like they did earlier since landfall is between those two points. I wonder why they dropped the forecast to below major on the last advisory? That seemed kind of odd to me

[aspen]

If the HWRF and HMON are correct, Iota should hit hurricane status sometime tomorrow morning, and have a structure ready for RI. It seems like Iota’s current pinhole structure will quickly meld into a slightly larger, more normal-sized core.

[supercane4867]

Iota is destined to explosively deepen in the next 2 days. Conditions are finally coming together for a historic storm.

[Keldeo1997]

I have a feeling that we will be seeing 8.0 RAW Ts again but won't be Cat 5 due to the cooler troposphere helping to cool the convection.

[aspen]

Tomorrow might be the big RI day, depending on how the core building is going, because the next 36 hours are when Iota will be going over the highest OHC; it drops off as it nears the Nicaragua coast.

[Owasso]

MW showing the formation of what appears to be the inner core?

[Hypercane_Kyle]

Going nuclear with deep convection.

[Sanibel]

Low riders are uncommon in the Caribbean...It will be interesting to see how strong conditions allow it to get...

[aspen]

4 more hours until recon arrives...this is gonna be a long night for me. I really want to see that first pass.

[HurricaneBelle]

IR is turning pink

here's hoping it doesn't go plaid

[cycloneye]

AF plane departs from Biloxi base. This overnight mission will be very important as Iota looks like is organizing very good now. Is going to be a long flight as it will take around 4 hours to arrive at the center.

[cainjamin]

Iota starting to look pretty scary tonight. I think it will be close to hurricane intensity by the time recon gets there

[Iceresistance]

Coldest cloud tops down to -95C