ATL: IOTA - Remnants - Discussion
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skyline385
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Iceresistance
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Re: ATL: IOTA - Hurricane - Discussion
skyline385 wrote:Think we are seeing glimpses of a small eye on IR.
I'm seeing it too
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Bill 2015 & Beta 2020
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Re: ATL: IOTA - Hurricane - Discussion
Rocket fuel MPI in the exact region where Iota is right now.
And while there is high shear to the east, there is a sharp decrease in shear in the direction Iota's expected path (5 - 10 kts).
Btw ADT now also supports a cat 1 and has:
And while there is high shear to the east, there is a sharp decrease in shear in the direction Iota's expected path (5 - 10 kts).
Btw ADT now also supports a cat 1 and has:
CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
4.0 / 987.2mb/ 65.0kt
4.0 / 987.2mb/ 65.0kt
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Keldeo1997
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Re: ATL: IOTA - Hurricane - Discussion
4:00 AM EST Sun Nov 15
Location: 13.1°N 77.3°W
Moving: W at 6 mph
Min pressure: 985 mb
Max sustained: 80 mph
Location: 13.1°N 77.3°W
Moving: W at 6 mph
Min pressure: 985 mb
Max sustained: 80 mph
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Re: ATL: IOTA - Hurricane - Discussion
This eye is gonna look impressive once it’s cleared out.
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Iceresistance
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Re: ATL: IOTA - Hurricane - Discussion
Owasso wrote:This eye is gonna look impressive once it’s cleared out.
https://i.imgur.com/x4kbORZ.jpg
IR saying another deep CDO core developing again
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Bill 2015 & Beta 2020
Winter 2020-2021
All observations are in Tecumseh, OK unless otherwise noted.
Winter posts are focused mainly for Oklahoma & Texas.
Take any of my forecasts with a grain of salt, refer to the NWS, SPC, and NHC for official information
Never say Never with weather! Because ANYTHING is possible!
Winter 2020-2021
All observations are in Tecumseh, OK unless otherwise noted.
Winter posts are focused mainly for Oklahoma & Texas.
Take any of my forecasts with a grain of salt, refer to the NWS, SPC, and NHC for official information
Never say Never with weather! Because ANYTHING is possible!
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Iceresistance
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Re: ATL: IOTA - Hurricane - Discussion
NHC saying 130 mph at landfall. I'm very worried now for Honduras 
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Bill 2015 & Beta 2020
Winter 2020-2021
All observations are in Tecumseh, OK unless otherwise noted.
Winter posts are focused mainly for Oklahoma & Texas.
Take any of my forecasts with a grain of salt, refer to the NWS, SPC, and NHC for official information
Never say Never with weather! Because ANYTHING is possible!
Winter 2020-2021
All observations are in Tecumseh, OK unless otherwise noted.
Winter posts are focused mainly for Oklahoma & Texas.
Take any of my forecasts with a grain of salt, refer to the NWS, SPC, and NHC for official information
Never say Never with weather! Because ANYTHING is possible!
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Iceresistance
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Re: ATL: IOTA - Hurricane - Discussion
There is a large, well-defined dry slot wrapping around Iota, still image to see that dry slot.
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Bill 2015 & Beta 2020
Winter 2020-2021
All observations are in Tecumseh, OK unless otherwise noted.
Winter posts are focused mainly for Oklahoma & Texas.
Take any of my forecasts with a grain of salt, refer to the NWS, SPC, and NHC for official information
Never say Never with weather! Because ANYTHING is possible!
Winter 2020-2021
All observations are in Tecumseh, OK unless otherwise noted.
Winter posts are focused mainly for Oklahoma & Texas.
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Keldeo1997
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Iceresistance
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Re: ATL: IOTA - Hurricane - Discussion
EWRC or pinhole?
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Bill 2015 & Beta 2020
Winter 2020-2021
All observations are in Tecumseh, OK unless otherwise noted.
Winter posts are focused mainly for Oklahoma & Texas.
Take any of my forecasts with a grain of salt, refer to the NWS, SPC, and NHC for official information
Never say Never with weather! Because ANYTHING is possible!
Winter 2020-2021
All observations are in Tecumseh, OK unless otherwise noted.
Winter posts are focused mainly for Oklahoma & Texas.
Take any of my forecasts with a grain of salt, refer to the NWS, SPC, and NHC for official information
Never say Never with weather! Because ANYTHING is possible!
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Iceresistance
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Iceresistance
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Re: ATL: IOTA - Hurricane - Discussion
Stronger now
Advisory 8A
85 mph winds
982 MB
moving WNW at 6 mph
85 mph winds
982 MB
moving WNW at 6 mph
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Bill 2015 & Beta 2020
Winter 2020-2021
All observations are in Tecumseh, OK unless otherwise noted.
Winter posts are focused mainly for Oklahoma & Texas.
Take any of my forecasts with a grain of salt, refer to the NWS, SPC, and NHC for official information
Never say Never with weather! Because ANYTHING is possible!
Winter 2020-2021
All observations are in Tecumseh, OK unless otherwise noted.
Winter posts are focused mainly for Oklahoma & Texas.
Take any of my forecasts with a grain of salt, refer to the NWS, SPC, and NHC for official information
Never say Never with weather! Because ANYTHING is possible!
Re: ATL: IOTA - Hurricane - Discussion
Iota's history so far. An increase of 40 mph in between Nov 14, 4AM and Nov 15, 4AM so it's officially in a phase of rapid intensification (+35 mph in 24 hours) now.
Time / Pressure (mb) / Wind (mph)
Nov 13, 10AM / 1007 / 35
Nov 13, 4PM / 1006 / 40
Nov 13, 10PM / 1006 / 40
Nov 14, 4AM / 1005 / 40
Nov 14, 10AM / 1006 / 40
Nov 14, 1PM / 1002 / 50
Nov 14, 4PM / 995 / 60
Nov 14, 7PM / 995 / 60
Nov 14, 10PM / 990 / 70
Nov 15, 1AM / 989 / 75
Nov 15, 4AM / 985 / 80
Nov 15, 7AM / 982 / 85
Time / Pressure (mb) / Wind (mph)
Nov 13, 10AM / 1007 / 35
Nov 13, 4PM / 1006 / 40
Nov 13, 10PM / 1006 / 40
Nov 14, 4AM / 1005 / 40
Nov 14, 10AM / 1006 / 40
Nov 14, 1PM / 1002 / 50
Nov 14, 4PM / 995 / 60
Nov 14, 7PM / 995 / 60
Nov 14, 10PM / 990 / 70
Nov 15, 1AM / 989 / 75
Nov 15, 4AM / 985 / 80
Nov 15, 7AM / 982 / 85
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Re: ATL: IOTA - Hurricane - Discussion
When is the next recon flight taking off?
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Irene '11 Sandy '12 Hermine '16 5/15/2018 Derecho Fay '20 Isaias '20 Elsa '21 Henri '21 Ida '21
I am only a meteorology enthusiast who knows a decent amount about tropical cyclones. Look to the professional mets, the NHC, or your local weather office for the best information.
I am only a meteorology enthusiast who knows a decent amount about tropical cyclones. Look to the professional mets, the NHC, or your local weather office for the best information.
Re: ATL: IOTA - Hurricane - Discussion
aspen wrote:When is the next recon flight taking off?
Next mission should arrive at 1730z so in about 5 hours. At the moment they have four mission planned from now until 11z tomorrow.
Edit: looks like they already left so they might arrive like half an hour earlier since I think the journey takes about 4 - 4.5 hours.
000
NOUS42 KNHC 141625
REPRPD
WEATHER RECONNAISSANCE FLIGHTS
CARCAH, NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER, MIAMI, FL.
1130 AM EST SAT 14 NOVEMBER 2020
SUBJECT: TROPICAL CYCLONE PLAN OF THE DAY (TCPOD)
VALID 15/1100Z TO 16/1100Z NOVEMBER 2020
TCPOD NUMBER.....20-172
I. ATLANTIC REQUIREMENTS
1. TROPICAL STORM IOTA
FLIGHT ONE - TEAL 73 FLIGHT TWO - TEAL 71
A. 15/1730Z A. 15/2330Z
B. AFXXX 0331A IOTA B. AFXXX 0431A IOTA
C. 15/1045Z C. 15/1900Z
D. 13.7N 79.0W D. 13.9N 80.0W
E. 15/1700Z TO 15/2030Z E. 15/2300Z TO 16/0230Z
F. SFC TO 10,000 FT F. SFC TO 10,000 FT
FLIGHT THREE - TEAL 72 FLIGHT FOUR - TEAL 73
A. 16/0530Z A. 16/1130Z
B. AFXXX 0531A IOTA B. AFXXX 0631A IOTA
C. 16/0100Z C. 16/0715Z
D. 14.1N 80.8W D. 14.2N 81.6W
E. 16/0500Z TO 16/0830Z E. 16/1100Z TO 16/1430Z
F. SFC TO 10,000 FT F. SFC TO 10,000 FT
2. OUTLOOK FOR SUCCEEDING DAY: CONTINUE 6-HOURLY FIXES WHILE
SYSTEM REMAINS A THREAT.
II. PACIFIC REQUIREMENTS
1. NEGATIVE RECONNAISSANCE REQUIREMENTS.
2. OUTLOOK FOR SUCCEEDING DAY.....NEGATIVE.
NOTE: THE ATLANTIC WINTER STORM REQUIREMENTS ARE NEGATIVE.
$$
SEF
NNNN
NOUS42 KNHC 141625
REPRPD
WEATHER RECONNAISSANCE FLIGHTS
CARCAH, NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER, MIAMI, FL.
1130 AM EST SAT 14 NOVEMBER 2020
SUBJECT: TROPICAL CYCLONE PLAN OF THE DAY (TCPOD)
VALID 15/1100Z TO 16/1100Z NOVEMBER 2020
TCPOD NUMBER.....20-172
I. ATLANTIC REQUIREMENTS
1. TROPICAL STORM IOTA
FLIGHT ONE - TEAL 73 FLIGHT TWO - TEAL 71
A. 15/1730Z A. 15/2330Z
B. AFXXX 0331A IOTA B. AFXXX 0431A IOTA
C. 15/1045Z C. 15/1900Z
D. 13.7N 79.0W D. 13.9N 80.0W
E. 15/1700Z TO 15/2030Z E. 15/2300Z TO 16/0230Z
F. SFC TO 10,000 FT F. SFC TO 10,000 FT
FLIGHT THREE - TEAL 72 FLIGHT FOUR - TEAL 73
A. 16/0530Z A. 16/1130Z
B. AFXXX 0531A IOTA B. AFXXX 0631A IOTA
C. 16/0100Z C. 16/0715Z
D. 14.1N 80.8W D. 14.2N 81.6W
E. 16/0500Z TO 16/0830Z E. 16/1100Z TO 16/1430Z
F. SFC TO 10,000 FT F. SFC TO 10,000 FT
2. OUTLOOK FOR SUCCEEDING DAY: CONTINUE 6-HOURLY FIXES WHILE
SYSTEM REMAINS A THREAT.
II. PACIFIC REQUIREMENTS
1. NEGATIVE RECONNAISSANCE REQUIREMENTS.
2. OUTLOOK FOR SUCCEEDING DAY.....NEGATIVE.
NOTE: THE ATLANTIC WINTER STORM REQUIREMENTS ARE NEGATIVE.
$$
SEF
NNNN
Last edited by kevin on Sun Nov 15, 2020 7:20 am, edited 4 times in total.
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Iceresistance
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Re: ATL: IOTA - Hurricane - Discussion
aspen wrote:When is the next recon flight taking off?
They do one every 6 hours as long as Iota is a threat
Speaking of which:
AF307 Mission #3 into IOTA
Type: Unknown | Status: In Progress
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Bill 2015 & Beta 2020
Winter 2020-2021
All observations are in Tecumseh, OK unless otherwise noted.
Winter posts are focused mainly for Oklahoma & Texas.
Take any of my forecasts with a grain of salt, refer to the NWS, SPC, and NHC for official information
Never say Never with weather! Because ANYTHING is possible!
Winter 2020-2021
All observations are in Tecumseh, OK unless otherwise noted.
Winter posts are focused mainly for Oklahoma & Texas.
Take any of my forecasts with a grain of salt, refer to the NWS, SPC, and NHC for official information
Never say Never with weather! Because ANYTHING is possible!
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supercane4867
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Re: ATL: IOTA - Hurricane - Discussion
as terrible as Iota is...it sure is something to look at, that is a great picture of Iota
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tolakram
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Re: ATL: IOTA - Hurricane - Discussion
live visible floater
https://whirlwind.aos.wisc.edu/~wxp/goes16/grb/meso_vis_sqrt/meso2_60.html
source: https://www.aos.wisc.edu/weather/wx_obs/GOES16.html
https://whirlwind.aos.wisc.edu/~wxp/goes16/grb/meso_vis_sqrt/meso2_60.html
source: https://www.aos.wisc.edu/weather/wx_obs/GOES16.html
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M a r k
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