ATL: IOTA - Remnants - Discussion

[underthwx]

live visible floater

https://whirlwind.aos.wisc.edu/~wxp/goes16/grb/meso_vis_sqrt/meso2_60.html

source: https://www.aos.wisc.edu/weather/wx_obs/GOES16.html

That is also really cool....thankyou for providing that

[gfsperpendicular]

SHIPS says 22% chance of a 5, and a very good chance that we are looking at a major this time tomorrow

[aspen]

Iota’s outflow is absolutely nuts. Once the eyewall finally solidifies, the eye should clear out pretty quickly. I’ll bet Iota becomes a major by the 10pm advisory.

[Do_For_Love]

Iota's history so far. An increase of 40 mph in between Nov 14, 4AM and Nov 15, 4AM so it's officially in a phase of rapid intensification (+35 mph in 24 hours) now

That makes, what, 9 hurricanes thus far this year that have rapidly intensified (Hanna, Laura, Sally, Teddy, Delta, Epsilon, Zeta, Eta, Iota)? That's gotta be pushing a record if not setting one. I mean Iota's RI in mid-November was basically assumed by everyone. Just insane.

[wx98]

Iota's history so far. An increase of 40 mph in between Nov 14, 4AM and Nov 15, 4AM so it's officially in a phase of rapid intensification (+35 mph in 24 hours) now

That makes, what, 9 hurricanes thus far this year (Hanna, Laura, Sally, Teddy, Delta, Epsilon, Zeta, Eta, Iota)? That's gotta be pushing a record if not setting one. I mean Iota's RI in mid-November was basically assumed by everyone. Just insane.

There’s been 13 hurricanes. The record is 15 from 2005.

[Do_For_Love]

Iota's history so far. An increase of 40 mph in between Nov 14, 4AM and Nov 15, 4AM so it's officially in a phase of rapid intensification (+35 mph in 24 hours) now

That makes, what, 9 hurricanes thus far this year (Hanna, Laura, Sally, Teddy, Delta, Epsilon, Zeta, Eta, Iota)? That's gotta be pushing a record if not setting one. I mean Iota's RI in mid-November was basically assumed by everyone. Just insane.

There’s been 13 hurricanes. The record is 15 from 2005.

I mean Hurricanes that have Rapidly Intensified - I'll edit my post to make that clearer.

[kevin]

Iota's history so far. An increase of 40 mph in between Nov 14, 4AM and Nov 15, 4AM so it's officially in a phase of rapid intensification (+35 mph in 24 hours) now

That makes, what, 9 hurricanes thus far this year that have rapidly intensified (Hanna, Laura, Sally, Teddy, Delta, Epsilon, Zeta, Eta, Iota)? That's gotta be pushing a record if not setting one. I mean Iota's RI in mid-November was basically assumed by everyone. Just insane.

Not sure about all years, but I compared it with 2005 based on the NHC reports and that season had 7 rapidly intensifying hurricanes (data below). Btw I think Patricia holds the world record for fastest intensification in terms of wind speed with 105 kts in 24 hours.

Name / Wind speed increase in 24 hours (kt)
Dennis / 50
Emily / 40
Katrina / 50
Rita / 60
Stan / 30
Wilma / 95 (record intensification in the Atlantic basin)
Beta / 30

[aspen]

If the HWRF is right, Iota’s eye should begin clearing later this afternoon, perhaps around the 4pm advisory.

The current NHC forecast track would lead to Iota generating about 10.5 ACE. However, odds are it’ll be a major much sooner than the track says, and I think there’s a good chance it will peak with winds of at least 125 kt. A combination of a higher peak and a longer duration as a major could get it to 15 ACE or so.

[skyline385]

Mid November system btw

[kevin]

Iota's center starts rotating rapidly in the last few frames:

[skyline385]

NHC bumped max winds to 130mph in the last advisory

[Do_For_Love]

Not sure about all years, but I compared it with 2005 based on the NHC reports and that season had 7 rapidly intensifying hurricanes (data below). Btw I think Patricia holds the world record for fastest intensification in terms of wind speed with 105 kts in 24 hours.

That's a great point of comparison. The fact that 2020 is beating out 2005 in the amount of RI hurricanes pretty much says it all on that subject lol.

[tiger_deF]

This may be some of the best outflow I've ever seen in a storm in the Atlantic. Perfect ventilation in all 4 quadrants

[kevin]

This may be some of the best outflow I've ever seen in a storm in the Atlantic. Perfect ventilation in all 4 quadrants

If you removed the country borders and showed this to me last year with the question what we were looking at I'd probably say that it's a soon to be wpac monster in September. But instead it's the Atlantic in November. Absolutely perfect ventilation indeed.

[Hypercane_Kyle]

Wow.

[aspen]

November 2020 feels like a crossover between July 2005 and August 2007 — a pair of abnormally powerful and impressive systems for the month like July ‘05, and a pair of Central America majors with a TS in between like August ‘07.

[Owasso]

10:00 AM EST Sun Nov 15
Location: 13.3°N 78.5°W
Moving: WNW at 9 mph
Min pressure: 978 mb
Max sustained: 90 mph

[Owasso]

Now forecast to peak at 120kts (140mph).

[ElectricStorm]

Warm spot starting to form on IR... I don't think we are all that far away from seeing the eye pop out

[underthwx]

Wow.

https://i.imgur.com/5iUw8XK.jpg

classic lookin cyclone