ATL: IOTA - Remnants - Discussion

[kevin]

Seems like Iota is starting to recover from its hiccup, new cold clouds near the center just fired in the last few frames.

[cheezyWXguy]

Or could the system just be too large to intensify quickly? It is a large system and if memory serves me.right, large systems take time

On IR it almost looks kind of like Ike when the core got totally blown out after going over most of the length of Cuba, but microwave shows that's not really the case.

Agreed, not the case here. Just structural changes going on, Iota’s appearance has changed quite a bit, even in the last 6 hours

[hurricaneCW]

There's no hiccup, the storm is continuing to intensify but it's a larger hurricane so you're seeing the pressure drops first.

Fully expect a 145-155mph storm when it's done.

[ScottNAtlanta]

This is looking like just a temporary hiccup. Iota is very well organized with a closed eye, and over the last several runs, the HMON and HWRF have dropped the idea of an EWRC. One is still possible but I doubt it could occur in time. I think we might have another RI-until-landfall scenario on our hands...just stop it 2020.

The likelihood of a 20 nm closed eye undergoing EWRC is pretty slim, its already large enough and stabilized...

20 nm isn’t that big. I’d say an EWRC is possible, but perhaps dry air might erode some outer bands and prevent them from becoming an outer eyewall.

Recon said it was elliptical 20 x 30 miles

[ScottNAtlanta]

Extrapolated pressure down to 974 and not quite at center yet

[aspen]

Extrapolated pressure now down to ~972 mbar.

[ElectricStorm]

Welp so much for that dry slot... Eye starting to pop out on IR... I was hoping it was going to struggle but it's not. This is awful for CA....

[ScottNAtlanta]

Now that there is a closed round eye, the winds ought to pick up rather quickly

[Kazmit]

How many more passes can recon make? It's using up a lot of fuel going all the way down there and back.

[aspen]

In 65 minutes, between 16:49z and 17:54z, Iota’s minimum extrapolated pressure dropped from 975.8 mbar to 972.2 mbar. That’s a fast deepening rate of 3.3 mb/hr. If a 2.5-3.5 mb/hr rate continues for the next 12 hours, Iota would get down to no higher than 945-950 mbar.

[aspen]

How many more passes can recon make? It's using up a lot of fuel going all the way down there and back.

Seems like they only do two for these southern Caribbean systems. Fortunately, another AF plane is on the runway and should take off soon, and will arrive in the late afternoon/early evening.

[cycloneye]

They remained at 80 kts on Best Track.

31L IOTA 201115 1800 13.2N 78.9W ATL 80 974

[kevin]

Seems like an eye is popping out on IR:

[cycloneye]

Downgraded to 75kts.

31L IOTA 201115 1800 13.2N 78.9W ATL 75 974

[Iceresistance]

Downgraded to 75kts.

31L IOTA 201115 1800 13.2N 78.9W ATL 75 974

Why weaker!? It looks stronger!

[kevin]

It looks like Iota is ramping up again just after recon left. The next recon just arrive at the perfect time to see how much Iota has strenghtened since the last passes since we'll probably see continuous strengthening from now on unless an EWRC happens. Considering that it looks like an eye is popping out, I assume the winds will pick up fairly quickly and that the following recon mission will find a considerably stronger storm. I'm guessing in the 960s and 85 - 95 kts.

[cheezyWXguy]

Downgraded to 75kts.

31L IOTA 201115 1800 13.2N 78.9W ATL 75 974

Why weaker!? It looks stronger!

Recon found weaker winds, but given recent satellite trends I would say the winds will be coming up soon

[supercane4867]

Even at a steady deepening rate of 1mb/hr would put landfall pressure in the 940mb range. If a round of RI occurs we may see sub 920mb readings.

[galaxy401]

Downgraded to 75kts.

31L IOTA 201115 1800 13.2N 78.9W ATL 75 974

Why weaker!? It looks stronger!

I think it's more of a correction rather than it weakening. Iota probably wasn't strengthening as quickly as we thought overnight. Pressure continues to drop so it's probably going to ramp up again soon.

[ElectricStorm]

Downgraded to 75kts.

31L IOTA 201115 1800 13.2N 78.9W ATL 75 974

Why weaker!? It looks stronger!

Remember it's a lot easier for deep convection to fire in November. As we just saw with Eta, it's best to go by what recon says rather than what it looks like. Still should become a monster though. And honestly by the next advisory it will likely be back up to at least 80kts as the pressure is still steadily falling