ATL: IOTA - Remnants - Discussion

[Hypercane_Kyle]

80 knots was akin the NHC's "best guess" without recon data.

75 knots is the true value as measured by recon. No weakening has occurred.

[cycloneye]

What is this up and down? Again up to 80 kts.

31L IOTA 201115 1800 13.2N 78.9W ATL 80 974

[Iceresistance]

What is this up and down? Again up to 80 kts.

31L IOTA 201115 1800 13.2N 78.9W ATL 80 974

I'm saying borderline 75-80 knots.

[supercane4867]

What is this up and down? Again up to 80 kts.

31L IOTA 201115 1800 13.2N 78.9W ATL 80 974

Best track numbers are just temporary and subject to change. Only advisory intensity are official operational estimates.

[wxman57]

Max FL from recon was about 74 kts last mission. Peak SFMR about 67 kts. However, pressure had fallen. Clearly, its smaller eye (before) must have collapsed and a new, larger eye is forming. That's the only way you can get a lower wind speed with a lower pressure - a decreased pressure gradient. This caused wind to drop as pressure fell. New eye is pretty large but it is starting to shrink. I would expect it to shrink down to 10-12nm across by tomorrow. That will tighten the pressure gradient and ramp up the winds.

[us89]

Looks like there's a bit of lightning in the eyewall...more intensification coming.

[Iceresistance]

Looks like there's a bit of lightning in the eyewall...more intensification coming.

More Eta flashbacks. . .

[kevin]

I think that what we saw of Iota a few hours ago is probably the least organized it'll be structure-wise up until landfall. Since the new larger eyewall seems quite solid, I don't expect another EWRC before landfall even though they can of course always occur. So unfortunately for Nicaragua and Honduras I think continuous strengthening up until landfall is a likely scenario. The eye is now also noticeable on visible, it's got that classic look to it. Remember that it's still 24 - 30 hours until landfall in very favorable conditions.

[Iceresistance]

Eye temp. now up to -55C

[aspen]

Max FL from recon was about 74 kts last mission. Peak SFMR about 67 kts. However, pressure had fallen. Clearly, its smaller eye (before) must have collapsed and a new, larger eye is forming. That's the only way you can get a lower wind speed with a lower pressure - a decreased pressure gradient. This caused wind to drop as pressure fell. New eye is pretty large but it is starting to shrink. I would expect it to shrink down to 10-12nm across by tomorrow. That will tighten the pressure gradient and ramp up the winds.

I think the eye-collapse explanation is correct, because the HWRF was very insistent on a tiny core transitioning to a larger one, and we did see a very tight core yesterday.

Satellite imagery suggests the new eye is indeed shrinking, although due to overshooting hot towers, we’ll need recon to confirm its exact size.

[Chemmers]

It is definitely trying to go pin hole

[Iceresistance]

It is definitely trying to go pin hole

You might be right

[Iceresistance]

Advisory #10

90 mph
974 MB
Moving west at 9 mph
Expected to be at 140 mph at landfall

[Iceresistance]

Iota is having a hard time getting it circular.

[wx98]

4:00 PM EST Sun Nov 15
Location: 13.3°N 79.3°W
Moving: W at 9 mph
Min pressure: 974 mb
Max sustained: 90 mph

[skyline385]

It might shrink but doesnt look like its going pinhole, just looks to be clearing up slowly. Convection near the center also doesn't seem to be anywhere close to what we saw on Eta and the CDO is smaller as well.

[Kazmit]

Looks like a major on satellite. I think recon will find winds of at least cat 2 strength.

[Iceresistance]

Eye Temp. now up to -48C

[SouthDadeFish]

Yeahhh this is not good. RI is well underway. Iota may give Eta's peak intensity a run for its money... Although I wonder if Eta mixed up the water near the coast of Nicaragua enough to prevent that kind of a ceiling.

[Iceresistance]

Yeahhh this is not good. RI is well underway. Iota may give Eta's peak intensity a run for its money... Although I wonder if Eta mixed up the water near the coast of Nicaragua enough to prevent that kind of a ceiling.

No sign of upwelling or a cold water trail from Eta.