ATL: IOTA - Remnants - Discussion

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kevin
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Re: ATL: IOTA - Hurricane - Discussion

#621 Postby kevin » Sun Nov 15, 2020 4:30 pm

What a difference 5 hours can make:

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Re: ATL: IOTA - Hurricane - Discussion

#622 Postby kevin » Sun Nov 15, 2020 4:32 pm

ADT is also noticing the improving structure, raw T# shot up to 6.1. Final T value still at 4.4 right now. Recon is now 300 miles from the center so we'll probably get a center pass in about 1.5 hours.
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Re: ATL: IOTA - Hurricane - Discussion

#623 Postby aspen » Sun Nov 15, 2020 4:36 pm

Lots of hot towers are firing around the eye. Based on the greatly improving structure and the deepening rate from last flight, I think Iota might be in the 955-965 mbar range by the time recon arrives. However, it’s also possible the deepening rate has significantly slowed for the time being and is waiting for winds to catch up.
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Re: ATL: IOTA - Hurricane - Discussion

#624 Postby Iceresistance » Sun Nov 15, 2020 4:36 pm

Eye is still getting warmer. . .
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Re: ATL: IOTA - Hurricane - Discussion

#625 Postby SouthDadeFish » Sun Nov 15, 2020 4:39 pm

Just as I feared, we have a pretty thick cyan ring. All signs point to RI... This just sucks.

 https://twitter.com/MikeFischerWx/status/1328089680408170498


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Re: ATL: IOTA - Hurricane - Discussion

#626 Postby underthwx » Sun Nov 15, 2020 4:41 pm

SouthDadeFish wrote:Just as I feared, we have a pretty thick cyan ring. All signs point to RI... This just sucks.

https://twitter.com/MikeFischerWx/status/1328089680408170498

Sucks is a good word for it
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Re: ATL: IOTA - Hurricane - Discussion

#627 Postby Iceresistance » Sun Nov 15, 2020 4:51 pm

Ohhh nooo :eek:

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Re: ATL: IOTA - Hurricane - Discussion

#628 Postby Nimbus » Sun Nov 15, 2020 4:54 pm

Forecast to be a tropical storm by the time it reaches the border with Honduras.
Watching the water vapor loop and there is no hope for Nicaragua..
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Re: ATL: IOTA - Hurricane - Discussion

#629 Postby aspen » Sun Nov 15, 2020 4:55 pm

skyline385 wrote:It might shrink but doesnt look like its going pinhole, just looks to be clearing up slowly. Convection near the center also doesn't seem to be anywhere close to what we saw on Eta and the CDO is smaller as well.

https://i.imgur.com/x1JqknW.jpg

Eta also has a small CDO, until it truly went nuclear and the CDO more than doubled in size. I wouldn’t be surprised if Iota does something similar overnight.
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Re: ATL: IOTA - Hurricane - Discussion

#630 Postby Iceresistance » Sun Nov 15, 2020 4:57 pm

Eye temperture down to -30C! It was -50C just 20 minutes ago!


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Re: ATL: IOTA - Hurricane - Discussion

#631 Postby Iceresistance » Sun Nov 15, 2020 5:10 pm

Now -20C! WIth lightning!

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Re: ATL: IOTA - Hurricane - Discussion

#632 Postby cycloneye » Sun Nov 15, 2020 5:12 pm

Here we go. The AF plane decends to operational altitud.
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Re: ATL: IOTA - Hurricane - Discussion

#633 Postby Iceresistance » Sun Nov 15, 2020 5:22 pm

cycloneye wrote:Here we go. The AF plane decends to operational altitud.

And it's in!
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Re: ATL: IOTA - Hurricane - Discussion

#634 Postby kevin » Sun Nov 15, 2020 5:23 pm

Just as a reminder, the last center pass was at 17:54z and measured 972.2 mbar. It's now 22:20z so four and a half hours have passed. So the next center pass should be about 4.5 - 5 hours after the last one. This should be a good indicator of how fast it's strengthening. Below is a list with the expected pressure for different strenthening rates (using 4.5 - 5 hours as the time that has passed):

1.0 mb/h: 967 - 968 mbar
1.5 mb/h: 965 mbar
1.75 mb/h: 963 - 964 mbar <- old definition of rapid deepening
2.0 mb/h: 962 - 963 mbar
2.5 mb/h: 960 - 961 mbar
Last edited by kevin on Sun Nov 15, 2020 5:28 pm, edited 4 times in total.
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Re: ATL: IOTA - Hurricane - Discussion

#635 Postby Iceresistance » Sun Nov 15, 2020 5:24 pm

Got cold very fast, around -61C

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Re: ATL: IOTA - Hurricane - Discussion

#636 Postby Keldeo1997 » Sun Nov 15, 2020 5:24 pm

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RAW T up to 6.3
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Re: ATL: IOTA - Hurricane - Discussion

#637 Postby Ian2401 » Sun Nov 15, 2020 5:25 pm


raw T will always be skewed in November as we saw in Eta bc of colder upper atmospheric conditions making it easier for cold cloud tops to form
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Re: ATL: IOTA - Hurricane - Discussion

#638 Postby aspen » Sun Nov 15, 2020 5:27 pm


It’s still in the clearing stages with massive hot towers firing and rotating around the eyewall. The eye will warm and cool for a while before stabilizing and fully clearing.
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Re: ATL: IOTA - Hurricane - Discussion

#639 Postby EquusStorm » Sun Nov 15, 2020 5:28 pm

The symmetry in this is incredible. The last 36 hours have featured some of the most phenomenal structural improvements in that short a time you'll ever see
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Re: ATL: IOTA - Hurricane - Discussion

#640 Postby Iceresistance » Sun Nov 15, 2020 5:30 pm

aspen wrote:

It’s still in the clearing stages with massive hot towers firing and rotating around the eyewall. The eye will warm and cool for a while before stabilizing and fully clearing.

It got up to -30 to -20C at one point, yikes!
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