ATL: IOTA - Remnants - Discussion

[ElectricStorm]

That’s a rather conservative forecast peak right now. Maybe they will revise later, but I seriously doubt this only strengthens a mere 10kt more...

Do they update the full forecast on the intermediate advisories? Or just the full advisories? It could still be the forecast peak from the last advisory if that's the case.

[us89]

That’s a rather conservative forecast peak right now. Maybe they will revise later, but I seriously doubt this only strengthens a mere 10kt more...

Do they update the full forecast on the intermediate advisories? Or just the full advisories? It could still be the forecast peak from the last advisory if that's the case.

Just full advisories. My bet is the next pass will support a cat 4 and they will issue a special advisory.

[ClarCari]

That’s a rather conservative forecast peak right now. Maybe they will revise later, but I seriously doubt this only strengthens a mere 10kt more...

That's the old intensity forecast. A new one has yet to be issued.

They update them every advisory I think. Or at least I swore they used to. Even in Intermediate advisories I would remember seeing updates to the forecast.

Ehh I guess we’ll see in 3 hours...

[ElectricStorm]

That’s a rather conservative forecast peak right now. Maybe they will revise later, but I seriously doubt this only strengthens a mere 10kt more...

Do they update the full forecast on the intermediate advisories? Or just the full advisories? It could still be the forecast peak from the last advisory if that's the case.

Just full advisories. My bet is the next pass will support a cat 4 and they will issue a special advisory.

Yeah I thought they only did it on full advisories

[ElectricStorm]

Second recon pass incoming. Might see close to Cat 4 in NW quad...

[ElectricStorm]

Final T# Adj T# Raw T#
6.1 6.0 6.8

Final T's now over 6.0

[Owasso]

931mb extrap...

[ElectricStorm]

931mb extrap...

What the heck Iota!?

[Hypercane_Kyle]

WHAT?!?!?!

931.3 mb
(~ 27.50 inHg)

SFMR:

121 knots
(~ 139.2 mph)

[galaxy401]

931 mb WOW!!!!

Cat 4 winds found too!

[hurricaneCW]

This will be another near Cat 5 at 150-155mph though it could reach that coveted 160 mph Cat 5.

Very impressive on IR with excellent outflow on all sides.

[Owasso]

SFMR is 121kts and unflagged. Backed up with a rather impressive 134kt FL.

[Hypercane_Kyle]

That was a 13 mb drop between a single pass...

This feels like a fever dream.

[CrazyC83]

That supports at least 120 kt, if not 125 kt, for the intensity.

[ElectricStorm]

That supports at least 120 kt, if not 125 kt, for the intensity.

I smell a special advisory. This is unbelievable

[MarioProtVI]

Yeah I expect a special advisory imminently. Rapidly approaching Cat 5 two weeks after Eta almost did so.

[AxaltaRacing24]

That was a 13 mb drop between a single pass...

This feels like a fever dream.

the atlantic (especially the caribbean) is truly unreal this year. so consistent

[CrazyC83]

SFMR is 121kts and unflagged. Backed up with a rather impressive 134kt FL.

Considering the pressure drop, I'd go with 125 kt.

[ColdMiser123]

Definitely a Category 4, both FL wind and SFMR support an intensity of around 120 kt in the NW quadrant.

Need dropsonde data to confirm that 13 mb drop between passes in extrapolated pressure is legit.

[ElectricStorm]

If that 931mb is confirmed by a dropsonde, I think NHC needs to forecast a Cat 5. Nothing stopping it at this point