ATL: IOTA - Remnants - Discussion

[supercane4867]

The CDO is not quite smooth yet, suggesting that the system has not peaked.

https://i.imgur.com/JZe0Xf8.gif

How much more can this system possibly go? This is already insane, but the fact that Iota is seemingly not done is terrifying.

Most likely it won't stop until hitting land or MPI, which is around 150-155kt for the region.

[ScottNAtlanta]

It looked to me like they might have only sampled the left side of the eye, and they didnt hit it in the center.

[Owasso]

It looked to me like they might have only sampled the left side of the eye, and they didnt hit it in the center.

I'm inclined to agree. Gotta wait for that second pass and for the dropsonde of course.

[kevin]

It looked to me like they might have only sampled the left side of the eye, and they didnt hit it in the center.

They didn't get below 18 kts FL and 31 kts SFMR so maybe they indeed didn't hit the true center of the eye. Perhaps that's also why there's no news from the NHC yet, maybe they're waiting for the second pass.

[ScottNAtlanta]

I hope the people on the plane took their motion sickness meds...I cant even imagine how bumpy that ride is.

[tolakram]

175
URNT12 KNHC 161253
VORTEX DATA MESSAGE AL312020
A. 16/12:21:00Z
B. 13.47 deg N 081.59 deg W
C. 700 mb 2427 m
D. 921 mb
E. 345 deg 1 kt
F. CLOSED
G. C12
H. 140 kt
I. 337 deg 8 nm 12:18:30Z
J. 058 deg 147 kt
K. 335 deg 9 nm 12:18:00Z
L. 107 kt
M. 054 deg 7 nm 12:23:00Z
N. 161 deg 130 kt
O. 054 deg 7 nm 12:23:00Z
P. 10 C / 3060 m
Q. 25 C / 3046 m
R. 9 C / NA
S. 12345 / 7
T. 0.02 / 1 nm
U. AF303 0631A IOTA OB 03
MAX FL WIND 147 KT 335 / 9 NM 12:18:00Z
;

[tolakram]

H. 140 kts is the key

[ScottNAtlanta]

Got the vortex msg...confirmed 140kt wind at surface

[KWT]

175
URNT12 KNHC 161253
VORTEX DATA MESSAGE AL312020
A. 16/12:21:00Z
B. 13.47 deg N 081.59 deg W
C. 700 mb 2427 m
D. 921 mb
E. 345 deg 1 kt
F. CLOSED
G. C12
H. 140 kt
I. 337 deg 8 nm 12:18:30Z
J. 058 deg 147 kt
K. 335 deg 9 nm 12:18:00Z
L. 107 kt
M. 054 deg 7 nm 12:23:00Z
N. 161 deg 130 kt
O. 054 deg 7 nm 12:23:00Z
P. 10 C / 3060 m
Q. 25 C / 3046 m
R. 9 C / NA
S. 12345 / 7
T. 0.02 / 1 nm
U. AF303 0631A IOTA OB 03
MAX FL WIND 147 KT 335 / 9 NM 12:18:00Z
;

Well that seals the deal with regards to a cat-5 then, 140kts confirmed and that 147kt FL wind is also a good back up.

I wouldn't be surprised if they find a little higher as they plunge through the NE quad either.

[ElectricStorm]

Time for an upgrade...

[Owasso]

12nm eye. Contracted yet again.

[NotoSans]

NHC is quite skeptical towards SFMR at high intensities (e.g. Eta has a 135kt SFMR log but NHC decides to stick with 130kt). A blend of flight-level adjusted winds and SFMR yields an intensity of 136kt, so it is unclear if NHC will pull the trigger.

[ScottNAtlanta]

Wow...15 degree Celsius differential in/out of the eye

[kevin]

I think the 140 kt vortex data at the surface seals the deal regarding a cat 5.

[supercane4867]

Hurricane Iota, the second ever November CAT5 in the Atlantic basin

[aspen]

The best track keeps Iota at 135 kt, but bumps the pressure down to 921 mbar. Odds are they’ll go with a Cat 5 at 10am because they’ve been going 5 kt above the BT winds for the last several advisories. Assuming recon isn’t leaving, their next pass should confirm a sub-920 Cat 5.

[ScottNAtlanta]

I was looking, and if they went with the standard names to be retired...we'd retire 3 out of the Greek Alphabet
Delta, Eta, and Iota

[mrbagyo]

[ElectricStorm]

Dropsonde only at 121kts but that's in the E eyewall

[cheezyWXguy]

https://i.imgur.com/X48oFAw.jpg

If that is to be interpreted as a double eyewall, I am thinking it could be a meld, given the lack of a double wind maxima and how close the outer eyewall is to the inner