ATL: IOTA - Remnants - Discussion
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Iceresistance
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Re: ATL: IOTA - Hurricane - Discussion
Almost in! 140 knot FL winds
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Bill 2015 & Beta 2020
Winter 2020-2021
All observations are in Tecumseh, OK unless otherwise noted.
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Winter 2020-2021
All observations are in Tecumseh, OK unless otherwise noted.
Winter posts are focused mainly for Oklahoma & Texas.
Take any of my forecasts with a grain of salt, refer to the NWS, SPC, and NHC for official information
Never say Never with weather! Because ANYTHING is possible!
Re: ATL: IOTA - Hurricane - Discussion
925 mbar extrapolated, and they still haven’t hit the exact center yet.
I hope they spin around and go back through the NW quadrant again, to confirm the maximum winds again.
I hope they spin around and go back through the NW quadrant again, to confirm the maximum winds again.
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Irene '11 Sandy '12 Hermine '16 5/15/2018 Derecho Fay '20 Isaias '20 Elsa '21 Henri '21 Ida '21
I am only a meteorology enthusiast who knows a decent amount about tropical cyclones. Look to the professional mets, the NHC, or your local weather office for the best information.
I am only a meteorology enthusiast who knows a decent amount about tropical cyclones. Look to the professional mets, the NHC, or your local weather office for the best information.
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supercane4867
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Re: ATL: IOTA - Hurricane - Discussion
The halo like feature surrounding the eye makes me think it's attempting an eyewall melding
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Hypercane_Kyle
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Re: ATL: IOTA - Hurricane - Discussion
aspen wrote:925 mbar extrapolated, and they still haven’t hit the exact center yet.
I hope they spin around and go back through the NW quadrant again, to confirm the maximum winds again.
Probably not, they only have fuel for two passes.
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My posts are my own personal opinion, defer to the National Hurricane Center (NHC) and other NOAA products for decision making during hurricane season.
Re: ATL: IOTA - Hurricane - Discussion
supercane4867 wrote:The halo like feature surrounding the eye makes me think it's attempting an eyewall melding
https://i.imgur.com/p3RBxuO.jpg
If so, the next recon plane should arrive when it completes, and this pass should determine if one is going on.
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Irene '11 Sandy '12 Hermine '16 5/15/2018 Derecho Fay '20 Isaias '20 Elsa '21 Henri '21 Ida '21
I am only a meteorology enthusiast who knows a decent amount about tropical cyclones. Look to the professional mets, the NHC, or your local weather office for the best information.
I am only a meteorology enthusiast who knows a decent amount about tropical cyclones. Look to the professional mets, the NHC, or your local weather office for the best information.
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eastcoastFL
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Re: ATL: IOTA - Hurricane - Discussion
Hypercane_Kyle wrote:aspen wrote:925 mbar extrapolated, and they still haven’t hit the exact center yet.
I hope they spin around and go back through the NW quadrant again, to confirm the maximum winds again.
Probably not, they only have fuel for two passes.
Isn’t it on their way home?
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The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.
Re: ATL: IOTA - Hurricane - Discussion
Weird to see such a tight core and such a ragged mess to the North East.
Last edited by sponger on Mon Nov 16, 2020 8:27 am, edited 1 time in total.
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Hypercane_Kyle
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Re: ATL: IOTA - Hurricane - Discussion
SFMR of 143 knots, pressure of 913 mb. Guaranteed Cat 5, IMO.
Last edited by Hypercane_Kyle on Mon Nov 16, 2020 8:27 am, edited 1 time in total.
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supercane4867
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Re: ATL: IOTA - Hurricane - Discussion
kevin wrote:Extrapolated Sfc. Pressure 913.5 mbar, 143 kt SFMR.
Should support 145kt. It is a 5
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ElectricStorm
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Re: ATL: IOTA - Hurricane - Discussion
kevin wrote:Extrapolated Sfc. Pressure 913.5 mbar, 143 kt SFMR.
Ok. It's time to upgrade... This is the definition of a 5
Last edited by ElectricStorm on Mon Nov 16, 2020 8:27 am, edited 1 time in total.
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B.S Meteorology, University of Oklahoma '25
Please refer to the NHC, NWS, or SPC for official information.
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Re: ATL: IOTA - Hurricane - Discussion
Hypercane_Kyle wrote:SFMR of 143 knots, pressure of 913 mb.
Wow!
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The following post is NOT an official forecast and should not be used as such. It is just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is NOT endorsed by any professional institution including storm2k.org For Official Information please refer to the NHC and NWS products.
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Iceresistance
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Re: ATL: IOTA - Hurricane - Discussion
eastcoastFL wrote:Hypercane_Kyle wrote:aspen wrote:925 mbar extrapolated, and they still haven’t hit the exact center yet.
I hope they spin around and go back through the NW quadrant again, to confirm the maximum winds again.
Probably not, they only have fuel for two passes.
Isn’t it on their way home?
No, moving towards the SW
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Bill 2015 & Beta 2020
Winter 2020-2021
All observations are in Tecumseh, OK unless otherwise noted.
Winter posts are focused mainly for Oklahoma & Texas.
Take any of my forecasts with a grain of salt, refer to the NWS, SPC, and NHC for official information
Never say Never with weather! Because ANYTHING is possible!
Winter 2020-2021
All observations are in Tecumseh, OK unless otherwise noted.
Winter posts are focused mainly for Oklahoma & Texas.
Take any of my forecasts with a grain of salt, refer to the NWS, SPC, and NHC for official information
Never say Never with weather! Because ANYTHING is possible!
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eastcoastFL
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Re: ATL: IOTA - Hurricane - Discussion
Anyone else notice the new lemon right where Iota is?
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Personal Forecast Disclaimer:
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.
Re: ATL: IOTA - Hurricane - Discussion
eastcoastFL wrote:Anyone else notice the new lemon right where Iota is?
Yes. Will have to wait for later. It’s unreal..
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Re: ATL: IOTA - Hurricane - Discussion
143kt unflagged it appears
Last edited by Owasso on Mon Nov 16, 2020 8:29 am, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: ATL: IOTA - Hurricane - Discussion
Hypercane_Kyle wrote:SFMR of 143 knots, pressure of 913 mb. Guaranteed Cat 5, IMO.
Cuba 1932, your time has come. You had a good run though.
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Irene '11 Sandy '12 Hermine '16 5/15/2018 Derecho Fay '20 Isaias '20 Elsa '21 Henri '21 Ida '21
I am only a meteorology enthusiast who knows a decent amount about tropical cyclones. Look to the professional mets, the NHC, or your local weather office for the best information.
I am only a meteorology enthusiast who knows a decent amount about tropical cyclones. Look to the professional mets, the NHC, or your local weather office for the best information.
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Hypercane_Kyle
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Re: ATL: IOTA - Hurricane - Discussion
Weather Dude wrote:kevin wrote:Extrapolated Sfc. Pressure 913.5 mbar, 143 kt SFMR.
Ok. It's time to upgrade... This is the definition of a 5
A 10 mph increase usually isn't enough to warrant a special advisory. They'll probably wait until 10 am EST.
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eastcoastFL
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Re: ATL: IOTA - Hurricane - Discussion
Iceresistance wrote:eastcoastFL wrote:Hypercane_Kyle wrote:
Probably not, they only have fuel for two passes.
Isn’t it on their way home?
No, moving towards the SW
Right but hey have to head North to get back home don’t they?
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Personal Forecast Disclaimer:
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.
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ElectricStorm
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Re: ATL: IOTA - Hurricane - Discussion
Hypercane_Kyle wrote:Weather Dude wrote:kevin wrote:Extrapolated Sfc. Pressure 913.5 mbar, 143 kt SFMR.
Ok. It's time to upgrade... This is the definition of a 5
A 10 mph increase usually isn't enough to warrant a special advisory. They'll probably wait until 10 am EST.
They could still send out one of those updates and then wait for the full advisory for the discussion and forecast. Like they did earlier for Cat 4
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