ATL: IOTA - Remnants - Discussion

[Ryxn]

So it should be upgraded at 10 EST?

[Hypercane_Kyle]

Dropsonde is 920 mb with a 33 knot wind. So maybe ~919 mb.

[underthwx]

So it should be upgraded at 10 EST?

If they have confirmed Cat 5 level data...yes

[Kazmit]

I still don't think the satellite appearance compared to Eta.

[kevin]

If it becomes 140 kts at the 10AM advisory that means it has intensified by 60 kts in 24 hours, the same intensification rate as hurricane Rita.

[us89]

Dropsonde is 920 mb with a 33 knot wind. So maybe ~919 mb.

Normal rule of thumb is 1 mb for every 10 kt of wind, so 917 seems like a better guess.

[shiny-pebble]

Whatever is going on with the eyewall seems to be nearing completion. A larger eye maybe clearing out?

That's what I've been thinking. The eye has been rotating around that "outer" eyewall but there are no signs of a double wind maximum??

[Buck]

I still don't think the satellite appearance compared to Eta.

https://img.techpowerup.org/201116/goes13402020321v5gxb0.jpg

https://img.techpowerup.org/201103/goes01402020308hkxiq0.jpg

Remarkable though... the similarities. Fraternal twins.

[Hypercane_Kyle]

So it should be upgraded at 10 EST?

12z ATCF was upped to 140 knots, so yes, it'll be upgraded at 10 am EST.

[supercane4867]

Whatever is going on with the eyewall seems to be nearing completion. A larger eye maybe clearing out?

https://i.imgur.com/JLppYx9.gif

That's what I've been thinking. The eye has been rotating around that "outer" eyewall but there are no signs of a double wind maximum??

Most likely it's eyewall melding instead of eyewall replacement. The magic internal process in ultra strong tropical cyclones

[Ryxn]

I still don't think the satellite appearance compared to Eta.

https://img.techpowerup.org/201116/goes13402020321v5gxb0.jpg

https://img.techpowerup.org/201103/goes01402020308hkxiq0.jpg

I agree. Eta had amazing presentation. So does Iota though. Will be interesting what post-season analysis brings light to.

[supercane4867]

I still don't think the satellite appearance compared to Eta.

https://img.techpowerup.org/201116/goes13402020321v5gxb0.jpg

https://img.techpowerup.org/201103/goes01402020308hkxiq0.jpg

Iota has not hit her peak yet. So be patient

[tolakram]

724
URNT12 KNHC 161359
VORTEX DATA MESSAGE AL312020
A. 16/13:16:30Z
B. 13.46 deg N 081.70 deg W
C. 700 mb 2439 m
D. 920 mb
E. 205 deg 33 kt
F. CLOSED
G. C12
H. 108 kt
I. 020 deg 7 nm 13:14:30Z
J. 117 deg 140 kt
K. 022 deg 8 nm 13:14:00Z
L. 143 kt
M. 231 deg 7 nm 13:24:30Z
N. 303 deg 129 kt
O. 230 deg 9 nm 13:25:00Z
P. 16 C / 3050 m
Q. 24 C / 3040 m
R. 12 C / NA
S. 12345 / 7
T. 0.02 / 1 nm
U. AF303 0631A IOTA OB 10
MAX FL WIND 147 KT 335 / 9 NM 12:18:00Z
;

[NotSparta]

So it should be upgraded at 10 EST?

12z ATCF was upped to 140 knots, so yes, it'll be upgraded at 10 am EST.

12z ATCF is still 135kt, what we saw here is an OFCL forecast point, not best track

[tolakram]

L. 143 kt on the outbound trip.

[Kazmit]

Why did recon just do a 180?

[tomatkins]

This season has desperately tried to produce a category 5 over the last couple months and it looks like we finally got there with Iota! Can’t believe the strongest storm of the season is occurring at this point! Let’s see if the NHC pulls the trigger.

Reminds me of those families where its like 6 girls - you know they were going to keep going until they could get a boy.

Same here - you got your Cat 5 2020 Atlantic Hurricane season - you can wrap it up now.

[chaser1]

L. 143 kt on the outbound trip.

And was that in fact a 9 NM eye?

[skyline385]

Drop was 920mb with 33 kts winds and they still went with 920mb fix?

[tolakram]

L. 143 kt on the outbound trip.

And was that in fact a 9 NM eye?

C12, 12 miles