ATL: IOTA - Remnants - Discussion

[Hypercane_Kyle]

So it should be upgraded at 10 EST?

12z ATCF was upped to 140 knots, so yes, it'll be upgraded at 10 am EST.

12z ATCF is still 135kt, what we saw here is an OFCL forecast point, not best track

Didn't notice that. In that case, 135 knots. A little baffled by that decision. 2016 definitely didn't have a Category 5 then.

[talkon]

12z ATCF is still 135kt, what we saw here is an OFCL forecast point, not best track

It's the 3 hour forecast point though, which is the advisory point, so it should be 140kt in the upcoming advisory.

[supercane4867]

Eye clearly warming again on IR. Next recon should find an even stronger Iota

[chaser1]

L. 143 kt on the outbound trip.

And was that in fact a 9 NM eye?

C12, 12 miles

Thank you, too much coffee this morning lol

[NDG]

 https://twitter.com/webberweather/status/1328338703002050561

[Owasso]

Another center pass.

[tolakram]

12z ATCF was upped to 140 knots, so yes, it'll be upgraded at 10 am EST.

12z ATCF is still 135kt, what we saw here is an OFCL forecast point, not best track

Didn't notice that. In that case, 135 knots. A little baffled by that decision. 2016 definitely didn't have a Category 5 then.

There's been no decision yet.

[kevin]

https://i.postimg.cc/MpPHmB02/image.png

Another center pass.

Maybe the hurricane hunters read the thread that was asking for a third pass . Looks like we'll get a direct pass through the northern eyewall this time.

[Hypercane_Kyle]

12z ATCF is still 135kt, what we saw here is an OFCL forecast point, not best track

Didn't notice that. In that case, 135 knots. A little baffled by that decision. 2016 definitely didn't have a Category 5 then.

There's been no decision yet.

135 knot @ 12z ATCF is very much a decision. Whether-or-not they go with 140 knots at 10 am is the question. I'm inclined to think they will, but we'll see.

Obviously, semantics at the end of the day.

[NDG]

L. 143 kt on the outbound trip.

And was that in fact a 9 NM eye?

C12, 12 miles

That's in nautical miles, so is 13.8 miles in diameter to be exact.

[KWT]

They are probably just waiting for recon to finish its mission to decide on initial intensity.

No point in having another situation like last night where its a cat-3 for 40 minutes and then data finds its strengthened rapidly. Better to wait and confirm whether its 140 or 145kts.

No way in hell is this 135kts anymore, more than eonugh data to justify an upgrade, several post season 5's have stayed/been upgraded for less.

As others have said, if this isn't a 5 now, then neither should Lorenzo or Matthew be a 5.

[wx98]

Recon did a loop in the eye and Cantore is on TWC talking about them going through “two” eyes and it having an EWRC

[GCANE]

Massively dry eye.
30% RH.
Very little chance this will have an EWRC before landfall.

[FLpanhandle91]

Iota once again proving that a clear and warm eye matters a lot in regards to storm intensity.

[supercane4867]

[supercane4867]

Recon doing a south-north pass. I think it may capture the strongest wind this time.

[Nancy Smar]

31L IOTA 201116 1200 13.5N 81.6W ATL 140 917

AL, 31, 2020111612, , BEST, 0, 135N, 816W, 140, 917, HU,

[ElectricStorm]

31L IOTA 201116 1200 13.5N 81.6W ATL 140 917

There it is... Unbelievable

[kevin]

Extrapolated Sfc. Pressure 916.7 mbar on the third pass.

[Hypercane_Kyle]

31L IOTA 201116 1200 13.5N 81.6W ATL 140 917

Alright, now it's real. To be a fly in the room at the NHC. Probably some heated debates, but at least they're following the standard they set during Matthew in 2016.