ATL: IOTA - Remnants - Discussion

[tolakram]

Didn't notice that. In that case, 135 knots. A little baffled by that decision. 2016 definitely didn't have a Category 5 then.

There's been no decision yet.

135 knot @ 12z ATCF is very much a decision. Whether-or-not they go with 140 knots at 10 am is the question. I'm inclined to think they will, but we'll see.

Obviously, semantics at the end of the day.

The NHC is the final arbiter not the automated tropical cyclone forecasting system. They use it, and someone at the NHC may have set the latest point, but it's not the same as an actual advisory.

[FLpanhandle91]

Looks like a little hiccup in intensity between the second and third pass.

[kevin]

The entire storm2k thread right now:

[aspen]

Looks like Iota is leveling off for the time being, possibly due to the suspected eyewall meld. Still likely sub-920.

[wx98]

Slightly weaker that pass. Hmmm...

[Kazmit]

31L IOTA 201116 1200 13.5N 81.6W ATL 140 917

Alright, now it's real. To be a fly in the room at the NHC. Probably some heated debates, but at least they're following the standard they set during Matthew in 2016.

They may have been a bit trigger-happy with Matthew since it was the first cat 5 in 9 years.

[supercane4867]

Looks like Iota is leveling off for the time being, possibly due to the suspected eyewall meld. Still likely sub-920.

It has all day today to intensity and CDO will likely cool again once we hit nighttime. Let’s hope the upcoming recon missions will all succeed.

[MarioProtVI]

31L IOTA 201116 1200 13.5N 81.6W ATL 140 917

AL, 31, 2020111612, , BEST, 0, 135N, 816W, 140, 917, HU,

I have a good feeling they’re gonna go against this.

[NotoSans]

NHC started to question the validity of SMFR winds in high intensities in 2017 (especially Irma and Jose), and it has consistently said that reanalysis will be conducted on these storms as well as Matthew once validation on SMFR winds is completed. So one shouldn't be surprised that NHC isn't following the "standard" set in Matthew'16.

[Hypercane_Kyle]

There's been no decision yet.

135 knot @ 12z ATCF is very much a decision. Whether-or-not they go with 140 knots at 10 am is the question. I'm inclined to think they will, but we'll see.

Obviously, semantics at the end of the day.

The NHC is the final arbiter not the automated tropical cyclone forecasting system. They use it, and someone at the NHC may have set the latest point, but it's not the same as an actual advisory.

Hm, my understanding has always been the NHC has always input the initial conditions into the ATCF ahead of the official advisory. Is that not correct?

[Kazmit]

31L IOTA 201116 1200 13.5N 81.6W ATL 140 917

AL, 31, 2020111612, , BEST, 0, 135N, 816W, 140, 917, HU,

I have a good feeling they’re gonna go against this.

It's the best track, it's literally the NHC.

[skyline385]

Well this was a weak pass

[ElectricStorm]

31L IOTA 201116 1200 13.5N 81.6W ATL 140 917

AL, 31, 2020111612, , BEST, 0, 135N, 816W, 140, 917, HU,

I have a good feeling they’re gonna go against this.

I think they'll go 140 since they have revised it already. But it is kinda odd there wasn't even a single salmon barb on the strongest side of the storm that pass

[Iceresistance]

Recon made the pass as if to say 'Were outta here!'

They are not wasting any time getting back to their base.

[NotSparta]

AL, 31, 2020111612, , BEST, 0, 135N, 816W, 140, 917, HU, 64, NEQ, 30, 30, 25, 30, 1009, 210, 10, 0, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, IOTA, D, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, genesis-num, 066,

Looks like best track is now saying Cat 5 as well

[Kazmit]

Next recon will be arriving around noon, let's see if it continues strengthening until then.

[mrbagyo]

absence of radar data from San Andres is a bummer

[ElectricStorm]

Too bad I'll be driving to class when the advisory comes out. Oh the suspense lol

[supercane4867]

Well this was a weak pass

It had 2 passes of 140kt+ SFMR before that so one pass doesn’t mean much

[EquusStorm]

Hard to believe we get to witness something like this; it's a November for the ages. Sure are fortunate in the US that the ridiculous favorability of the WCarib didn't translate as well to the MDR during peak