ATL: IOTA - Remnants - Discussion

[cheezyWXguy]

Objective satellite estimates suggest Iota has already peaked. We'll see if they are correct.

Does that reconcile with what you are seeing? Eye temps look warmer and cdo temps look colder to me than before

[ColdMiser123]

The CDO is more asymmetric compared to before, which is evidence of higher shear, forecast by guidance to increase before landfall later tonight. However, the best convection remains upshear of the shear vector, so continued intensification should probably take place as long as that happens.

Regardless of exact intensity, another catastrophic, high impact event is on the way for Nicaragua.

[Iceresistance]

https://www.weathernerds.org/satellite/ ... rnerds.png

[underthwx]

https://www.weathernerds.org/satellite/sessions/GOES16_1km_ir_202011161715_11.25_15.75_-84.50_-80.75_ir1_ltng16_hgwy_warn_weathernerds.png

Iota inbound to CA....that's a great image!!!

[Iceresistance]

It's seems like that Recon is going to make the first pass from the NNW

[supercane4867]

Objective satellite estimates suggest Iota has already peaked. We'll see if they are correct.

Does that reconcile with what you are seeing? Eye temps look warmer and cdo temps look colder to me than before

ADT doesn’t resolve structural evolution very well. The CDO width has been shrinking along with the eye that’s why numbers have leveled off.

[Fancy1001]

What are the chances of two category fives (I know that Etta wasn't a category 5 at landfall but I swear it will be upgraded in the postseason analysis) making landfall in the same or almost same location less than a month apart.

[Iceresistance]

https://www.weathernerds.org/satellite/sessions/GOES16_1km_ir_202011161715_11.25_15.75_-84.50_-80.75_ir1_ltng16_hgwy_warn_weathernerds.png

Iota inbound to CA....that's a great image!!!

Thanks, this image format type will stay like that until landfall

[underthwx]

https://www.weathernerds.org/satellite/sessions/GOES16_1km_ir_202011161715_11.25_15.75_-84.50_-80.75_ir1_ltng16_hgwy_warn_weathernerds.png

Iota inbound to CA....that's a great image!!!

Thanks, this image format type will stay like that until landfall

Your welcome.....

[Fancy1001]

What are the chances of two category fives (I know that Eta wasn't a category 5 at landfall but I swear it will be upgraded in the postseason analysis) making landfall in the same or almost same location less than a month apart.

Never

I asked what are the chances of it happening, not has it ever happened before (to our knowledge since we only have about 170 years worth of records to go on.)

[Iceresistance]

What are the chances of two category fives (I know that Eta wasn't a category 5 at landfall but I swear it will be upgraded in the postseason analysis) making landfall in the same or almost same location less than a month apart.

Never

I asked what are the chances of it happening, not has it ever happened before (to our knowledge since we only have about 170 years worth of records to go on.)

I was talking about it never happened before

[tolakram]

https://www.weathernerds.org/satellite/sessions/GOES16_1km_ir_202011161715_11.25_15.75_-84.50_-80.75_ir1_ltng16_hgwy_warn_weathernerds.png

Iota inbound to CA....that's a great image!!!

Thanks, this image format type will stay like that until landfall

Do not direct embed images from any other site other than an image hosting site.

[Iceresistance]

Iota inbound to CA....that's a great image!!!

Thanks, this image format type will stay like that until landfall

Do not direct embed images from any other site other than an image hosting site.

Sorry about that, I was talking about the position of the image to Iota, I'll use Gifyu from now on.

[supercane4867]

[aspen]

Looks like recon is coming in directly from the north, which was one of the weakest parts in last flight. The strongest quadrant was the NW.

[TheDreamTraveler]

What are the chances of two category fives (I know that Etta wasn't a category 5 at landfall but I swear it will be upgraded in the postseason analysis) making landfall in the same or almost same location less than a month apart.

I'm almost certain that's unprecedented. If it has happened then I've never heard of it before

[Iceresistance]

This thing is still improving



(Note: This is a Gifyu image)

[supercane4867]

WV loop suggests further intensification. Let's see if recon confirms

[wx98]

Gonna say it’s probably about the same as earlier. Maybe a few mbar higher or lower.

[Hypercane_Kyle]

Definitely leveled off: Lowest pressure still 917 mb, SFMR 132 knots (I believe someone pointed out earlier though that this is not the strongest quadrant)