Area SE of Bermuda (Is Invest 99L)

[ElectricStorm]

2. A non-tropical area of low pressure could form between the Bahamas
and Bermuda by early next week. The system could gradually develop
subtropical characteristics through the middle of next week while it
moves northeastward.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent.

They literally just don't stop coming

[Ryxn]

Could be our Lambda...

I think December will give us Mu and Nu

[underthwx]

Time will tell.... yall have a good night.... good night Ice

[cycloneye]

A non-tropical area of low pressure could form between the Bahamas
and Bermuda by early next week. The system could gradually develop
subtropical characteristics through the middle of next week while it
moves northeastward.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent.

[underthwx]

Could be our Lambda...

I think December will give us Mu and Nu

Hopefully Mu(fish storm)...cause I guessed in the poll, the season would end with Mu

[AnnularCane]

Could be our Lambda...

I think December will give us Mu and Nu

Gotta have Kappa first.

[cycloneye]

A non-tropical area of low pressure could form between the Bahamas
and Bermuda by early next week. The system could gradually develop
subtropical characteristics through the middle of next week while it
moves northeastward.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent.

[underthwx]

As of 7 am NHC outlook...chance that a non-tropical low may form through 5 days is 20%...If....any system that comes from this would move Northeastward over the Western Atlantic ocean

[MarioProtVI]

Down to 0/10.

1. A non-tropical area of low pressure could form over the western
Atlantic early next week. This system would only have a short
period of time to develop subtropical characteristics before it
moves northeastward and merges with a cold front by the middle of
the week.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...10 percent.

[Audrey2Katrina]

Could be our Lambda...

I think December will give us Mu and Nu

Gotta have Kappa first.

Thanks, I was just about to inquire if I had missed Kappa!

[Audrey2Katrina]

"Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
700 PM EST Sat Nov 21 2020

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

1. A broad trough of low pressure located near and north of the Turks
and Caicos Islands is producing disorganized showers and
thunderstorms. A low pressure area could form within the next couple
of days as the trough lifts northward, and there is a slight chance
it could briefly acquire subtropical characteristics early next week
before merging with a cold front. Later next week, this system may
have a second opportunity to develop subtropical characteristics if
it becomes separated from the front and meanders over the central
Atlantic.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...10 percent."

They finally made a yellow X on the map-- but they're waiting for that trough to create a subtropical system from this; but right now the chances aren't too high.

[underthwx]

"Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
700 PM EST Sat Nov 21 2020

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

1. A broad trough of low pressure located near and north of the Turks
and Caicos Islands is producing disorganized showers and
thunderstorms. A low pressure area could form within the next couple
of days as the trough lifts northward, and there is a slight chance
it could briefly acquire subtropical characteristics early next week
before merging with a cold front. Later next week, this system may
have a second opportunity to develop subtropical characteristics if
it becomes separated from the front and meanders over the central
Atlantic.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...10 percent."

They finally made a yellow X on the map-- but they're waiting for that trough to create a subtropical system from this; but right now the chances aren't too high.

Hmmm....that's interesting...I always thought once a system merged with a front, that it was pretty much a goner...

[AnnularCane]

"Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
700 PM EST Sat Nov 21 2020

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

1. A broad trough of low pressure located near and north of the Turks
and Caicos Islands is producing disorganized showers and
thunderstorms. A low pressure area could form within the next couple
of days as the trough lifts northward, and there is a slight chance
it could briefly acquire subtropical characteristics early next week
before merging with a cold front. Later next week, this system may
have a second opportunity to develop subtropical characteristics if
it becomes separated from the front and meanders over the central
Atlantic.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...10 percent."

They finally made a yellow X on the map-- but they're waiting for that trough to create a subtropical system from this; but right now the chances aren't too high.

Hmmm....that's interesting...I always thought once a system merged with a front, that it was pretty much a goner...

I thought so too, but this seems to be the season where anything goes.

Anyway, it's 10/20 now.

[CrazyC83]

I'd increase the probs seeing recent models, they are a bit more impressed once it breaks from the front.

[CyclonicFury]

UP TO 10/30

323
ABNT20 KNHC 240541
TWOAT

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
100 AM EST Tue Nov 24 2020

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

A broad area of low pressure located several hundred miles south of
Bermuda continues to produce disorganized showers and thunderstorms,
Strong upper-level winds are expected to inhibit development of the
system for the next day or so after the low merges with a frontal
system. By late Wednesday or Thursday, the system could become
separated from the front, allowing it to possibly develop some
subtropical characteristics while it meanders over the central
Atlantic.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...30 percent.

$$
Forecaster Stewart

[aspen]

I'd increase the probs seeing recent models, they are a bit more impressed once it breaks from the front.

This continues to be the case. All global models show at least weak development as this separates from the front. If this trend continues, the NHC might bump 5-day odds up to 40% or 50% later today.

[wxman57]

Watch for the NHC naming a subtropical storm west of Portugal this weekend.

[AnnularCane]

How common is it for them to actually separate from a front after merging with one?

[aspen]

Watch for the NHC naming a subtropical storm west of Portugal this weekend.

I’m pretty surprised there’s a good model consensus for that system as well. All but the ICON show development (it shows this area briefly becoming maybe a weak TC). We could possibly see Kappa and Lambda in the subtropics within the next week.

[cycloneye]

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
100 PM EST Tue Nov 24 2020

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

A non-tropical area of low pressure located a couple of hundred
miles south-southeast of Bermuda has merged with a frontal system
and is producing gale-force winds, along with showers and
thunderstorms to the east of its center. By Thursday, the system
could become separated from the front, allowing it to possibly
develop some subtropical characteristics later this week while it
meanders over the central Atlantic. For more information on this
system, see the High Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather
Service.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...30 percent.

&&

High Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service can be
found under AWIPS header NFDHSFAT1, WMO header FZNT01 KWBC, and
online at ocean.weather.gov/shtml/NFDHSFAT1.php

$$
Forecaster Reinhart/Beven