Well today saw record high temps in the 70s and 80s from the Ohio Valley over into the Mid Atlantic and for most except the southern most areas of these two regions this warmth should be out of here by tomorrow and as well the southern areas by tomorrow night as the first of two shots of colder air moves in with the second shot on Friday beeing the coldest of the season so far for alot of the eastern US with LES kicking into high gear from Friday afternoon through most of Saturday. and Temps falling back to highs in the 30s to 40s in most places from the Mid Atlantic/Ohio Valley on north and some in the northern most areas and where the LES takes over will be hard pressed to get to 30 on Saturday....................
I will have more on this later with a closer look for some cities and what they may see.......................All in all as i pointed out (First to do so btw) in my snowcover/ Other updates thread over a week ago the SE ridge should for the most part be gone by Midmonth...................I will update that as well in a short bit...............
Winter like Temps/Pirecip on the way
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StormCrazyIowan
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wx247
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It has gotten colder here. Brrr is right Jacki. 
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The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.
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StormCrazyIowan
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StormCrazyIowan
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"Well today saw record high temps in the 70s and 80s from the Ohio Valley over into the Mid Atlantic and for most except the southern most areas of these two regions this warmth should be out of here by tomorrow and as well the southern areas by tomorrow night as the first of two shots of colder air moves in with the second shot on Friday beeing the coldest of the season so far for alot of the eastern US with LES kicking into high gear from Friday afternoon through most of Saturday. and Temps falling back to highs in the 30s to 40s in most places from the Mid Atlantic/Ohio Valley on north and some in the northern most areas and where the LES takes over will be hard pressed to get to 30 on Saturday....................
I will have more on this later with a closer look for some cities and what they may see.......................All in all as i pointed out (First to do so btw) in my snowcover/ Other updates thread over a week ago the SE ridge should for the most part be gone by Midmonth...................I will update that as well in a short bit..............."
I agree w/ you that the SE ridge is gone after the 20th...and that there will be problems with LES as the cold air and NW flow moves over the lakes...(and yes i do think there is the possibility that some squalls will jump the mountains given that vorticity max over the SE lakes on the 18z GFS at 96hr...also note that there is some signs of H5 UVM ahead of the s/w).
However following the cold shot...the pattern will turn zonal and the SE ridge will remain in place...however its influence will be diminished. so IOW...instead of having SW winds blowtorching the EUS...we/ll have more of a westerly flow and Polar pacific air (which is not great but an improvement from the present).
Also...watch the block in SCAND for potential retrogression later in the month...as it could set us up for another NAO tanking.
I will have more on this later with a closer look for some cities and what they may see.......................All in all as i pointed out (First to do so btw) in my snowcover/ Other updates thread over a week ago the SE ridge should for the most part be gone by Midmonth...................I will update that as well in a short bit..............."
I agree w/ you that the SE ridge is gone after the 20th...and that there will be problems with LES as the cold air and NW flow moves over the lakes...(and yes i do think there is the possibility that some squalls will jump the mountains given that vorticity max over the SE lakes on the 18z GFS at 96hr...also note that there is some signs of H5 UVM ahead of the s/w).
However following the cold shot...the pattern will turn zonal and the SE ridge will remain in place...however its influence will be diminished. so IOW...instead of having SW winds blowtorching the EUS...we/ll have more of a westerly flow and Polar pacific air (which is not great but an improvement from the present).
Also...watch the block in SCAND for potential retrogression later in the month...as it could set us up for another NAO tanking.
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LMolineux
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Ok RNS lets think her a bit. I hate to keep on picking your brain but i really am learnign for you and trying to throw it into my head also and working on it with my ideas.
But I am trying to figure out why this SE Ridge is holding tough and will continue to return. But to how Zonal and how far south will this Jet setup is a big question. In fact wasnt 92-93 winter sorta the same setup in a way. And what did we have on the heals of a quick south pac storm then skirted over LA Cali. and knocked the Se Ridge out of the way allowing for a triple phase to happen. I know that wa s arare occrance but do you think we could see that happen once again but a mont earlier in Feb. As i am thinking fo a major storm in Feb to ride up the coast from the gulf.
But I am trying to figure out why this SE Ridge is holding tough and will continue to return. But to how Zonal and how far south will this Jet setup is a big question. In fact wasnt 92-93 winter sorta the same setup in a way. And what did we have on the heals of a quick south pac storm then skirted over LA Cali. and knocked the Se Ridge out of the way allowing for a triple phase to happen. I know that wa s arare occrance but do you think we could see that happen once again but a mont earlier in Feb. As i am thinking fo a major storm in Feb to ride up the coast from the gulf.
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LMolineux
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Stormsfury wrote:So much for that 2º below normal in the Southeast forecast ... (was it CPC??)
SF
Unfortunately i have to agree what a big bust i feel is going to occur and it is goign to hurt bigtiem we all now have to adjust in a big way on and in our forecasts. Honestly i cant do Long Range now due to this but i am gonna ahve to take it 3 to 8 days out tops now because my brain is racked now. But seriously we now have to also take in account for these major solar flairs and storms. Because in all honesty i think they will alter the global patterns in a way we are not used to. These are things that have been passed around over time and might be coming true now.
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Stormsfury
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LMolineux wrote:Stormsfury wrote:So much for that 2º below normal in the Southeast forecast ... (was it CPC??)
SF
Unfortunately i have to agree what a big bust i feel is going to occur and it is goign to hurt bigtiem we all now have to adjust in a big way on and in our forecasts. Honestly i cant do Long Range now due to this but i am gonna ahve to take it 3 to 8 days out tops now because my brain is racked now. But seriously we now have to also take in account for these major solar flairs and storms. Because in all honesty i think they will alter the global patterns in a way we are not used to. These are things that have been passed around over time and might be coming true now.
Outside of the tropics (and BTW, this year was the FIRST year I've done a seasonal outlook with specific numbers), I've never really done a serious winter outlook before ... only basis I've used before are the generalized pattern occurring and what I MIGHT think would happen ... I still have a LOT to learn about teleconnections/etc. ... so if I ever issue a winter weather outlook, it definitely won't be this year ...
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LMolineux
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Well INDY any change in wind direction and hold cold it is up there and also at the surface it just might happen dont count it out especially after my ordeal today. Started out the day with a fog and low deck of clouds cleared right out. Then as it had WSW winds i quickly warmed to 73 for my high at 11:54am. Then by 4 i was in the upper 50's with a Stiff ENE wind with gusts to near 20mph at times. Now it is 52 and with drizzle and fog. This si a typlical backdoor cold front ordeal but it really dropped much further south and west then i had thought it would. I even expected it to move back north after 4 or 5pm and it just sat south and west of me holding me in this cool damp air. I am not complaining but i am sayign dont underestimate a small shift in the pattern or weather.
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IndianaWx
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At this time it doesn't look like there will be fetch over Lk. Michigan worth mentioning, and if we don't have much of a fetch...LES will keep down to VERY minimal if any.
Now...Lk. Superior may be a diff. answer. They may see some Lake effect snow showers.
Interesting set-up and we'll see if it works out
Now...Lk. Superior may be a diff. answer. They may see some Lake effect snow showers.
Interesting set-up and we'll see if it works out
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The ridge is hanging tough for one main reason and two secondary reasons (at least from what i can see). the main reason is the solar activity.
this solar impact is three fold. first...it causes the NH PV to contract and strengthen the westerlies...enhancing zonal patterns (especially important following this next cold shot).
secondly...the tendency for above normal heights in the the equatorial regions and mid-latitudes as a result of the chemical effects of the geomagnetic activity on ozone...which promotes warming...thermal ridging...and above normal heights...leading to above normal temperatures. while the polar regions cool...resulting in lowering heights and cooling temps. reminicent of a weak ATL thermohaline circulation. in all...during these periods...the contrast in heights between the equatorial regions and the polar regions is increased (as well as the thermal gradinet or temperature difference) which leads to less in the way of high latitude blocking.
overall point...the SE ridge may have been bholstered by the effects of the solar activity.
furthermore...high solar activity effects the strength of specifc global features...most specifically the icelandic low and alleutian low.
in periods where solar activity is high...one may expect a stronger icelandic low and a weaker alleutian low. thus the RNA pattern is more common than a PNA pattern, with a zonal flow the most common of both. (example...the entire 01/02 winter)
RNA pattern ----> trough in the west...ridge in the east...hudsons bay vortex is weaker than normal. combine this with high solar activiyt and a +NAO one has a very warm pattern.
PNA Pattern----> opposite of the RNA. ridge in the west trough in the east. hudsons bay vortex is stronger than normal. combine this with low solar activity and a -NAO one has the makings of the coldest weather pattern possible for the eastern part of the country.
The southeast ridge is just the normal effect produced by thos factors however the solar activity is the kicker. for in times where it is not high...the SE ridge is proimarly forced by terrestrial climate factors.
Also note that the warm winter of 01/02 was (aside from the solar activity)dictated by the pacific SSTA configuration (shown below):
http://www.osdpd.noaa.gov/PSB/EPS/SST/d ... 9.2001.gif
note that there is warm water to the northwest of HI and cold water in the gulf of AK...all the way to the west toward siberia. this creates a pattern favorable for the positive phases of the Eastern pacific Oscillation and western pacific Oscillation (which work hand in hand...producing similar downstream effects). Consault the figures below:
+EPO:
http://www.cdc.noaa.gov/~gtb/tele/epo.cmp.gif
+WPO:
http://www.cdc.noaa.gov/~gtb/tele/wpo.cmp.gif
Notice that these indicies were mostly positive in the 01/02 winter... however notice that lately...they have been very negative.
this would indicate the tendency for pronounced blocking from eastern siberia back toward alaska. dictated by our current SSTA profiles in the pacific. notice the difference between this year and 2001:
http://www.osdpd.noaa.gov/PSB/EPS/SST/d ... 3.2003.gif
notice we have warm water surrounding the cold pool from siberia to the west coast of North America...radically different from 01/02. thus the result is different.
it was the solar influence in the winter of 2001/02 that lead to the -NAO despite the similar Atlantic tripole to what is normal for periods when the NAO is mostly negative (warm water overall,,,with the greatest anomalies centered in the north atlantic and the equatorial regions...with slight cooling in the center of both warm pools.)
Another winter 01.02 killer...the fact that it was an ENSO neutral - West QBO witner following a La Nina east winter. Not a good sign at all.
the solar activity just blew these things out of proportion...otherwise (IMO) 01.02 would have been similar to 1996/97.
the closest match to this years N. PAC SSTA is OCT-DEC 1995 preceeding the winter of 1995/96.
hope this clears some things up for everyone...
this solar impact is three fold. first...it causes the NH PV to contract and strengthen the westerlies...enhancing zonal patterns (especially important following this next cold shot).
secondly...the tendency for above normal heights in the the equatorial regions and mid-latitudes as a result of the chemical effects of the geomagnetic activity on ozone...which promotes warming...thermal ridging...and above normal heights...leading to above normal temperatures. while the polar regions cool...resulting in lowering heights and cooling temps. reminicent of a weak ATL thermohaline circulation. in all...during these periods...the contrast in heights between the equatorial regions and the polar regions is increased (as well as the thermal gradinet or temperature difference) which leads to less in the way of high latitude blocking.
overall point...the SE ridge may have been bholstered by the effects of the solar activity.
furthermore...high solar activity effects the strength of specifc global features...most specifically the icelandic low and alleutian low.
in periods where solar activity is high...one may expect a stronger icelandic low and a weaker alleutian low. thus the RNA pattern is more common than a PNA pattern, with a zonal flow the most common of both. (example...the entire 01/02 winter)
RNA pattern ----> trough in the west...ridge in the east...hudsons bay vortex is weaker than normal. combine this with high solar activiyt and a +NAO one has a very warm pattern.
PNA Pattern----> opposite of the RNA. ridge in the west trough in the east. hudsons bay vortex is stronger than normal. combine this with low solar activity and a -NAO one has the makings of the coldest weather pattern possible for the eastern part of the country.
The southeast ridge is just the normal effect produced by thos factors however the solar activity is the kicker. for in times where it is not high...the SE ridge is proimarly forced by terrestrial climate factors.
Also note that the warm winter of 01/02 was (aside from the solar activity)dictated by the pacific SSTA configuration (shown below):
http://www.osdpd.noaa.gov/PSB/EPS/SST/d ... 9.2001.gif
note that there is warm water to the northwest of HI and cold water in the gulf of AK...all the way to the west toward siberia. this creates a pattern favorable for the positive phases of the Eastern pacific Oscillation and western pacific Oscillation (which work hand in hand...producing similar downstream effects). Consault the figures below:
+EPO:
http://www.cdc.noaa.gov/~gtb/tele/epo.cmp.gif
+WPO:
http://www.cdc.noaa.gov/~gtb/tele/wpo.cmp.gif
Notice that these indicies were mostly positive in the 01/02 winter... however notice that lately...they have been very negative.
this would indicate the tendency for pronounced blocking from eastern siberia back toward alaska. dictated by our current SSTA profiles in the pacific. notice the difference between this year and 2001:
http://www.osdpd.noaa.gov/PSB/EPS/SST/d ... 3.2003.gif
notice we have warm water surrounding the cold pool from siberia to the west coast of North America...radically different from 01/02. thus the result is different.
it was the solar influence in the winter of 2001/02 that lead to the -NAO despite the similar Atlantic tripole to what is normal for periods when the NAO is mostly negative (warm water overall,,,with the greatest anomalies centered in the north atlantic and the equatorial regions...with slight cooling in the center of both warm pools.)
Another winter 01.02 killer...the fact that it was an ENSO neutral - West QBO witner following a La Nina east winter. Not a good sign at all.
the solar activity just blew these things out of proportion...otherwise (IMO) 01.02 would have been similar to 1996/97.
the closest match to this years N. PAC SSTA is OCT-DEC 1995 preceeding the winter of 1995/96.
hope this clears some things up for everyone...
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