ARB: GATI - Ex-Very Severe Cyclonic Storm

[StormTracker89]

Baffled how poorly they are handling this. In fact 06z just came out early from JTWC and they somehow went with only 55 kt despite a legit eye popping out on satellite. Wtf.

Very likely that JTWC will go higher for the actual 06Z best track. This is likely just an initial guess on the position. I mean raw ADT is up to 5.7 now that the ADT shifted to the eye technique. http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/adt/odt03A.html

[ElectricStorm]

This is absolutely ridiculous. Especially for a storm about to make landfall. Calling a likely hurricane a depression is about as bad as it gets...

[doomhaMwx]

Even the HWRF didn't see this coming...

 https://twitter.com/doomhaMwx/status/1330382043063197696

[Nancy Smar]

03A THREE 201122 0600 10.4N 52.6E IO 90 972
03A THREE 201122 0000 10.4N 53.8E IO 65 989
03A THREE 201121 1800 10.8N 55.6E IO 45 1001

[StormTracker89]

I'd say it safe to assume that NO model predicted this anomalous event. https://rammb-data.cira.colostate.edu/tc_realtime/loop.asp?product=diagplot&storm_identifier=io032020&starting_image=2020io03_diagplot_202011220000.png

[StormTracker89]

This has got to be one of the biggest busts in model intensity guidance on record, followed closely by 25W from a couple weeks ago. Both RI events were completely missed by all models (global, meso, even TC-scale). Is there something wrong with the models or is it just a "2020 thing"?

[doomhaMwx]

This has got to be one of the biggest busts in model intensity guidance on record, followed closely by 25W from a couple weeks ago. Both RI events were completely missed by all models (global, meso, even TC-scale). Is there something wrong with the models or is it just a "2020 thing"?

I believe this was to be expected from the globals since generally, they are poor at handling small-sized TCs.

[StormTracker89]

This has got to be one of the biggest busts in model intensity guidance on record, followed closely by 25W from a couple weeks ago. Both RI events were completely missed by all models (global, meso, even TC-scale). Is there something wrong with the models or is it just a "2020 thing"?

I believe this was to be expected from the globals since generally, they are poor at handling small-sized TCs.

I totally agree with you on the global models, they don't handle any TC well from an intensity perspective and most especially small TC's like this one. However, I would have anticipated that HWRF, or COAMPS-TC to have caught onto at least some degree of intensification, vice the straight weakening that it showed in both this case, and 25W. That is what is most surprising to me, that these mesoscale models (HWRF in particular) supposedly very skilled at TC intensity have totally missed two RI events in two weeks.

[EquusStorm]

Holy crap this came outta nowhere all of a sudden. Hard to believe they held it that low when the eye/eyewall started to develop, but seeing three areas of invest side by side in the Arabian Sea is pretty wild too.

[mrbagyo]

pretty nice looking depression huh

[Nancy Smar]

03A THREE 201122 0600 10.4N 52.6E IO 100 964
03A THREE 201122 0000 10.6N 53.9E IO 60 992

[StormTracker89]

2020NOV22 061500 3.8 991.0 61.0 3.8 4.4 5.8 1.7T/6hr OFF OFF OFF OFF 13.15 -64.41 EYE 17 IR -78.4 10.41 -52.43 ARCHER MSG1 17.6

[mrbagyo]

[StormTracker89]

12 hours, 34 minutes. Wow.

[MarioProtVI]

03A THREE 201122 0600 10.4N 52.6E IO 100 964
03A THREE 201122 0000 10.6N 53.9E IO 60 992

JTWC finally caught up after like 4 amendments...

[StormTracker89]

Unless some miracle occurs in the next 12 hours, and the system falls apart or shifts track dramatically, this will be by far the strongest storm to ever make landfall in Somalia. While the area of landfall is relatively sparsely populated, there's likely to be little warning of such an intense (pretty much unprecedented) TC inbound.

[EquusStorm]

It's getting silly

[doomhaMwx]

BULLETIN NO. : 03(ARB/04/2020)

The deep depression over southwest Arabian Sea moved rapidly west-southwestwards with a
speed of 45 kmph during past 06 hours, intensified into a Cyclonic Storm ―GATI‖ and lay centred at 0830
hrs IST of today 22nd November 2020 over southwest Arabian Sea near Latitude 10.7° N and Longitude
53.8°E, about 210 km south of Socotra (Yemen), 290 km east-southeast of Ras Binnah (Somalia) and 360
km east-southeast of Alula (Somalia). It is very likely to move west-southwestwards and intensify further
into a severe cyclonic storm during next 12 hours. It is very likely to cross Somalia coast around 10.5° N
(south of Ras Binnah (Somalia)) during early hours of 23rd November as a severe cyclonic storm with a
wind speed of 100-110 kmph gusting to 120 kmph.

REMARKS:
220900Z POSITION NEAR 10.3N 52.0E.
22NOV20. TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 03A (GATI), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 466
NM EAST-SOUTHEAST OF ADEN, YEMEN, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 14 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. TC 03A IS CLASSIFIED AS A MIDGET SYSTEM AND
HAS RAPIDLY INTENSIFIED SINCE 21/12Z (30-35 KNOTS) TO THE CURRENT
INTENSITY OF 100 KNOTS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY
DEPICTS A VERY SMALL SYSTEM WITH A COMPACT EYEWALL (ABOUT 60NM
DIAMETER) WITH A 15NM ROUND EYE, WHICH SUPPORTS THE CURRENT POSITION
WITH GOOD CONFIDENCE. THE CURRENT INTENSITY ASSESSMENT OF 100 KNOTS
IS BASED ON A PGTW DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATE OF T5.5 (102 KNOTS)
WITH AN OFF-WHITE EYE AND SURROUNDING LIGHT GRAY YIELDING A DATA-T
5.0 PLUS A +0.5 EYE ADJUSTMENT YIELDING A FINAL-T ESTIMATE OF T5.5.
ADT OBJECTIVE ESTIMATES ARE SUBSTANTIALLY LOWER, WHICH IS TYPICAL
WITH VERY SMALL SYSTEMS, BUT HAVE INCREASED TO 4.3 (72 KNOTS) WITH A
RAW T# OF 5.8 AT 22/0745Z. A 22/0445Z ASCAT-A UHR IMAGE SHOWED
MAXIMUM WINDS OF 61 KNOTS, WHICH REPRESENTS THE UPPER LIMIT OF THE
ASCAT WINDS. THE 34-KNOT AND 50-KNOT WIND RADII HAVE BEEN ADJUSTED
BASED ON A DETAILED ANALYSIS OF THE ASCAT IMAGERY. OVERALL, UPPER-
LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH LOW VERTICAL
WIND SHEAR AND NEAR-RADIAL OUTFLOW. TC 03A IS FORECAST TO TRACK
WESTWARD UNDER THE STEERING INFLUENCE OF A MID-LEVEL SUBTROPICAL
RIDGE POSITIONED TO THE NORTH THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. WITH THE
EXCEPTION OF AVNO AND AEMN, THE BULK OF THE GUIDANCE REMAINS IN FAIR
AGREEMENT AND SUPPORTS THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK WITH MODERATE
CONFIDENCE. THE 22/00Z ECMWF ENSEMBLE ALSO INDICATES A HIGH
PROBABILITY OF A WESTWARD TRACK. TC 03A SHOULD MAKE LANDFALL NEAR
TAU 09 OVER THE MOUNTAINOUS REGION OF NORTHEAST SOMALIA AND IS
EXPECTED TO RAPIDLY WEAKEN AS IT TRACKS INLAND WITH DISSIPATION
FORECASTED BY TAU 48. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 220600Z IS
23 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 221500Z, 222100Z, 230300Z AND 230900Z.//
NNNN

[mrbagyo]

TERRA Satellite (MODIS) made a direct pass over Cyclonic Storm Gati

[mrbagyo]

CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
4.6 / 981.1mb/ 79.6kt


Final T# Adj T# Raw T#
4.6 4.8 5.7

Estimated radius of max. wind based on IR : 20 km

Center Temp : +17.5C Cloud Region Temp : -60.5C

Scene Type : EYE

Subtropical Adjustment : OFF

Extratropical Adjustment : OFF