ARB: GATI - Ex-Very Severe Cyclonic Storm

[mrbagyo]

These communities are in for a terrible surprise

Xaafuun


Hurdiya


Ashira

[mrbagyo]

eye temp keeps increasing - now at almost 19C
2020NOV22 091500 4.6 981.1 79.6 4.6 4.9 5.7 1.7T/6hr OFF OFF OFF OFF 18.92 -58.96 EYE 20 IR -78.4 10.40 -51.88 ARCHER MSG1 17.2

[mrbagyo]

[mrbagyo]

Gati's current eye temp is now higher than the highest ADT eye temp recorded on both Kyarr and Amphan

[doomhaMwx]

BULLETIN NO. : 04(ARB/04/2020)

The cyclonic storm “GATI” over southwest Arabian Sea moved further rapidly west-southwestwards
with a speed of about 50 kmph during past 06 hours, intensified into a Severe Cyclonic Storm ―GATI‖
and lay centred at 1130 hrs IST of today 22nd November 2020 over southwest Arabian Sea near Latitude
10.4° N and Longitude 52.6°E, about 290 km south-southeast of Socotra (Yemen), 180 km east-southeast
of Ras Binnah (Somalia) and 270 km east-southeast of Alula (Somalia). It is very likely to continue to move
west-southwestwards and cross Somalia coast around 10.5° N (south of Ras Binnah (Somalia)) during
early hours of 23rd November as a very severe cyclonic storm with a wind speed of 120-130 kmph gusting
to 145 kmph.

[Ed_2001]

Eye has warmed but convection is warming as well, the storm has likely peaked. I would personally give it 105-110 knots right now given presentation, going to be the strongest storm to hit Somalia by a wide margin. This part of Somalia is relatively sparsely* populated, but underdeveloped communities that sits right at the coast, a flat topography, slow response by forecasting agencies, and an area with very little experience with mature tropical cyclones is never a good combination.

[mrbagyo]

[doomhaMwx]

Frustratingly, SATCON has not updated since ~22Z.

[al78]

With a solid near perfect circular eyewall in microwave imagery, that was looking like a strong cat 4/cat 5 earlier. The JTWC had it at 40 kts late yesterday evening, now it is 100 kts. It is very rare I see an agency go from 40 kts to 100 kts in one advisory. This is one of the worst case scenarios, a storm that forms near land then bombs incredibly fast on approach, leaving almost no time for preparation.

[doomhaMwx]

IMD has upgraded to a VSCS (typhoon-equivalent). Also, please change the thread title.

BULLETIN NO. : 05(ARB/04/2020)

The severe cyclonic storm “GATI” over southwest Arabian Sea moved rapidly westwards with a
speed of about 32 kmph during past 06 hours, intensified further into a Very Severe Cyclonic Storm
―GATI‖ and lay centred at 1430 hrs IST of today 22nd November 2020 over southwest Arabian Sea near
Latitude 10.4° N and Longitude 52.0°E, about 320 km south-southwest of Socotra (Yemen) and 120 km
southeast of Ras Binnah (Somalia). It is very likely to move nearly westwards and cross Somalia coast
around 10.5° N (south of Ras Binnah (Somalia)) around midnight of 22nd November as a very severe
cyclonic storm with a wind speed of 130-140 kmph gusting to 155 kmph

03A GATI 201122 1200 10.4N 51.5E IO 90 974

[mrbagyo]

AQUA (MODIS)

[aspen]

I went to sleep looking at a well organized TS, and I wake up to see that it had bombed out into a major just 12 hours after being designated.

What. The. Hell.

[doomhaMwx]

Making landfall now. This is solidly the strongest TC to hit Somalia on JTWC, as well as IMD records (which goes back to 1891). Both show no typhoon-equivalent landfall in Somalia before.


 https://twitter.com/doomhaMwx/status/1330507224804945926

[doomhaMwx]

 https://twitter.com/GOESguy/status/1330515151536197634

[doomhaMwx]

BULLETIN NO. : 06(ARB/04/2020)

The very severe cyclonic storm “GATI” over southwest Arabian Sea moved westwards with
a speed of about 18kmph during past 06 hours and lay centred at 1730 hrs IST of today 22nd November
2020 over southwest Arabian Sea near Latitude 10.4° N and Longitude 51.5°E, about 40 km east of
Somalia coast and 90 km south-southeast of Ras Binnah (Somalia). It is very likely to move nearly
westwards and cross Somalia coast around 10.5°N to the south of Ras Binnah (Somalia) within next three
hours as a very severe cyclonic storm with a wind speed of 130-140 kmph gusting to 155 kmph.

REMARKS:
221500Z POSITION NEAR 10.5N 51.0E.
22NOV20. TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 03A (GATI), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 408
NM EAST-SOUTHEAST OF ADEN, YEMEN, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 10 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. TC 03A, WHICH REMAINS CLASSIFIED AS A
MIDGET SYSTEM, PEAKED AT 100 KNOTS AT 22/06Z. ANIMATED ENHANCED
INFRARED (EIR) SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES SIGNIFICANT WEAKENING
WITH WARMING CLOUD TOPS AS THE SYSTEM APPROACHES THE COAST OF
NORTHEAST SOMALIA. HOWEVER, EIR STILL DEPICTS A RAGGED 12NM EYE,
WHICH SUPPORTS THE CURRENT POSITION WITH GOOD CONFIDENCE.
ADDITIONALLY, A 221223Z SSMI 85GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE REVEALS A COMPACT
EYEWALL SURROUNDING A SMALL MICROWAVE EYE FEATURE WITH SPIRAL
BANDING OVER THE WESTERN AND SOUTHERN SEMICIRCLES. THE CURRENT
INTENSITY IS ASSESSED AT 90 KNOTS BASED ON A PGTW DVORAK ESTIMATE OF
T5.0/5.5 (90/102 KNOTS); 22/1145-1215Z ADT ESTIMATES OF 4.9 (87-88
KNOTS); AND A SATCON ESTIMATE OF 85 KNOTS. OVERALL, UPPER-
LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH LOW VERTICAL
WIND SHEAR AND NEAR-RADIAL OUTFLOW. TC 03A IS FORECAST TO TRACK
WESTWARD UNDER THE STEERING INFLUENCE OF A MID-LEVEL SUBTROPICAL
RIDGE POSITIONED TO THE NORTH THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. WITH THE
EXCEPTION OF AVNO AND AEMN, THE BULK OF THE GUIDANCE REMAINS IN FAIR
AGREEMENT AND SUPPORTS THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK WITH MODERATE
CONFIDENCE. THE 22/00Z ECMWF ENSEMBLE ALSO INDICATES A HIGH
PROBABILITY OF A WESTWARD TRACK. TC 03A SHOULD MAKE LANDFALL NEAR
TAU 03 OVER THE MOUNTAINOUS REGION OF NORTHEAST SOMALIA AND IS
EXPECTED TO RAPIDLY WEAKEN AS IT TRACKS INLAND WITH DISSIPATION
FORECASTED BY TAU 48. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 221200Z IS
24 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 222100Z, 230300Z, 230900Z AND 231500Z.//
NNNN

[wxman57]

Interesting that IMD is forecasting Gati to reach 80 mph winds AFTER it has moved inland into Somalia and is weakening (1730Z today). Previously, they only had a "High" chance of development after models had it inland and dissipating. Hard to tell if they're that clueless or that they just don't care.

[supercane4867]

Poor IMD can't even afford windows 10

 https://twitter.com/kevishader/status/1330537951659503616

[supercane4867]

AVHRR pass



Landfall loop

[doomhaMwx]

Meteosat-8 | Meteosat-11 | FY-4A
Nov 22 10:00am UTC

[Ed_2001]

 https://twitter.com/GaroweOnline/status/1330633352416792581