REMARKS:
230300Z POSITION NEAR 10.7N 49.7E.
23NOV20. TROPICAL CYCLONE 03A (GATI), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 416
NM EAST OF DJIBOUTI (CITY), HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 07
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED (EIR)
SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES THAT TC 03A HAS BEEN DECAPITATED, WITH
THE UPPER-LEVEL ROTATION MOVING RAPIDLY OFF TO THE WEST, WHILE THE
LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) HAS BECOME EXPOSED OVER
NORTHEASTERN SOMALIA. THE INITIAL POSITION IS PLACED WITH HIGH
CONFIDENCE BASED ON THE EXPOSED LLCC, SUPPORTED BY ANALYSIS OF THE
222156Z AMSR2 91GHZ COLORPCT MICROWAVE IMAGE WHICH CLEARLY SHOWS THE
LLCC EAST OF THE REMNANT CONVECTION. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS
ASSESSED AT 45 KNOTS WITH LOW CONFIDENCE, DUE TO A LACK OF ESTIMATES
OVER LAND, AND PRIMARILY RELIES UPON AN EMPIRICAL DECAY MODEL AFTER
LANDFALL AND THE OVERALL STRUCTURE. TC 03A IS FORECAST TO TRACK
WESTWARD UNDER THE STEERING INFLUENCE OF A MID-LEVEL SUBTROPICAL
RIDGE POSITIONED TO THE NORTH THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD AND AS IT
DECAYS FURTHER, WILL TRACK ALONG THE SOUTHERN SIDE OF THE COASTAL
MOUNTAINS ALONG THE NORTHERN SOMILIA COASTLINE. THE SYSTEM IS
FORECAST TO CONTINUE TO DECAY OVER THE RUGGED TERRAIN, FULLY
DISSIPATING AS A TROPICAL CYCLONE BY TAU 36. DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE
IS IN FAIR AGREEMENT, WITH THE BULK OF THE GUIDANCE SUPPORTING THE
JTWC TRACK, WITH THE NOTABLE EXCEPTION OF NAVGEM, WHICH IS THE SOLE
OUTLIER TO THE SOUTHWEST. THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK LIES CLOSE TO THE
MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE. NEXT WARNINGS AT
230900Z, 231500Z, 232100Z AND 240300Z.//
NNNN
230300Z POSITION NEAR 10.7N 49.7E.
23NOV20. TROPICAL CYCLONE 03A (GATI), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 416
NM EAST OF DJIBOUTI (CITY), HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 07
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED (EIR)
SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES THAT TC 03A HAS BEEN DECAPITATED, WITH
THE UPPER-LEVEL ROTATION MOVING RAPIDLY OFF TO THE WEST, WHILE THE
LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) HAS BECOME EXPOSED OVER
NORTHEASTERN SOMALIA. THE INITIAL POSITION IS PLACED WITH HIGH
CONFIDENCE BASED ON THE EXPOSED LLCC, SUPPORTED BY ANALYSIS OF THE
222156Z AMSR2 91GHZ COLORPCT MICROWAVE IMAGE WHICH CLEARLY SHOWS THE
LLCC EAST OF THE REMNANT CONVECTION. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS
ASSESSED AT 45 KNOTS WITH LOW CONFIDENCE, DUE TO A LACK OF ESTIMATES
OVER LAND, AND PRIMARILY RELIES UPON AN EMPIRICAL DECAY MODEL AFTER
LANDFALL AND THE OVERALL STRUCTURE. TC 03A IS FORECAST TO TRACK
WESTWARD UNDER THE STEERING INFLUENCE OF A MID-LEVEL SUBTROPICAL
RIDGE POSITIONED TO THE NORTH THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD AND AS IT
DECAYS FURTHER, WILL TRACK ALONG THE SOUTHERN SIDE OF THE COASTAL
MOUNTAINS ALONG THE NORTHERN SOMILIA COASTLINE. THE SYSTEM IS
FORECAST TO CONTINUE TO DECAY OVER THE RUGGED TERRAIN, FULLY
DISSIPATING AS A TROPICAL CYCLONE BY TAU 36. DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE
IS IN FAIR AGREEMENT, WITH THE BULK OF THE GUIDANCE SUPPORTING THE
JTWC TRACK, WITH THE NOTABLE EXCEPTION OF NAVGEM, WHICH IS THE SOLE
OUTLIER TO THE SOUTHWEST. THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK LIES CLOSE TO THE
MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE. NEXT WARNINGS AT
230900Z, 231500Z, 232100Z AND 240300Z.//
NNNN
BULLETIN NO. : 10(ARB/04/2020)
The severe cyclonic storm “GATI” over north Somalia moved nearly westwards with a speed
of about 09 kmph during past 06 hours and weakened into a Cyclonic Storm over the same region and lay
centred at 0530 hrs IST of 23rd November 2020 near Latitude 10.5°N and Longitude 50.0°E, 150 km
south-southwest of Ras Binnah (Somalia). It is very likely to move nearly westwards and weaken gradually
into a deep depression during next 6 hours.
The severe cyclonic storm “GATI” over north Somalia moved nearly westwards with a speed
of about 09 kmph during past 06 hours and weakened into a Cyclonic Storm over the same region and lay
centred at 0530 hrs IST of 23rd November 2020 near Latitude 10.5°N and Longitude 50.0°E, 150 km
south-southwest of Ras Binnah (Somalia). It is very likely to move nearly westwards and weaken gradually
into a deep depression during next 6 hours.
