Florida Weather

[NDG]

Yes, the NAO is going negative over the next couple of weeks, will keep FL below average over all, so enjoy it while you can.
Mike Ventrice is already talking about a flip in the pattern for the second half of December, back to a more typical La Nina warm pattern for the SE US.

[gatorcane]

New York, NY is reporting 63F right now heading down to 47F tonight and Orlando is also 63F right now heading down to 42F tonight and 38F tomorrow night (37F in New York). Yikes not often you see that.

[gatorcane]

Euro thinks Florida will be mostly below normal temp-wise the next 10 days with trough after trough swinging through the eastern seaboard.

[chaser1]

Euro thinks Florida will be mostly below normal temp-wise the next 10 days with trough after trough swinging through the eastern seaboard.

https://i.postimg.cc/hPP81jb5/ecmwf-z500a-Norm-us-fh72-240.gif

Yup, was noticing that. Typically it seems like it's the GFS that tends to overplay troughs in the long range. I'm rooting for the EURO though! This cool-down is Mother Natures way of sayin' "hey, i'm sorry about the hurricane season on crack.... enjoy a few weeks of cool tranquility".

[NDG]

Yep, a -NAO, +PNA and -AO is a good recipe for below average temps for FL over the next 7-10 days, no need to look at the models to see that.
Enjoy it while you can, sypnotic pattern will be flipping for the second half of December, so a warmer than average Christmas will most likely be in the forecast.

[psyclone]

KPIE low: 45
KTPA low: 41
As is often the case temps didn't get as low as forecast. Nevertheless it felt frigid last night. Even super freezer Brooksville was denied a freeze with a low of 33. The rebound is underway. more cool weather is on the way but not cold...it's just not cold enough upstream which really caps the extent of below normal anomalies here. Works for me. Cold weather fans...soak it up now...for I am working on a return of our loyal winter Nina friend...the southeast ridge

[boca]

So we can essentially cancel are pseudo winter about Dec 15th or so. I was planning on a trip your way to St Pete beach treasure island and hoping for 75 for a high and 55 for a low the last week in December.

[psyclone]

So we can essentially cancel are pseudo winter about Dec 15th or so. I was planning on a trip your way to St Pete beach treasure island and hoping for 75 for a high and 55 for a low the last week in December.

Your desired temp range would be a few degrees above normal for us so that's a most reasonable wish...near to just a touch above normal.

[gatorcane]

The GFS is showing cold in the long-range as well not to mention another potent front swinging through Florida early next week

[toad strangler]

Going to perhaps just hit 80 today 12/5 but no sign of 80's again on the Treasure Coast through at least 12/11 !

[AdamFirst]

Frost on the windshields here this morning. Coldest I can remember it being here in several years. Quite nice, actually!

[gatorcane]

Indeed quite a long stretch for Florida standards of well below normal temps in December, not something we have seen much in recent years. It is particularly impressive that the cold has penetrated deep into the SE part of Florida with the NW wind vector allowing little to no help from the Gulf Stream. Boca should be happy, he has been skeptical we would see much of any cold weather with winds shifting to the NE after each front. Such is not the case this time.

But we shall see if we continue to get strong cold fronts or whether this is our winter this week. No indications of any arctic blasts in the long-range yet but freeze season is knocking on the door so shouldn’t be long before models start to show the blasts. Whether they actually come to fruition is the question.

[toad strangler]

Had light frost on the vehicle windshields this morning in Port Saint Lucie West. So refreshing.

[boca]

Indeed quite a long stretch for Florida standards of well below normal temps in December, not something we have seen much in recent years. It is particularly impressive that the cold has penetrated deep into the SE part of Florida with the NW wind vector allowing little to no help from the Gulf Stream. Boca should be happy, he has been skeptical we would see much of any cold weather with winds shifting to the NE after each front. Such is not the case this time.

But we shall see if we continue to get strong cold fronts or whether this is our winter this week. No indications of any arctic blasts in the long-range yet but freeze season is knocking on the door so shouldn’t be long before models start to show the blasts. Whether they actually come to fruition is the question.

I am very happy and as long as the NAO can stay on the negative side we should continue getting cold shots. I’m hearing from other posters that the southeast ridge will come back the last half of December which will end this cold fun.

[SFLcane]

 https://twitter.com/ericblake12/status/1337015985044336645

[FlaWeatherDude]

Well it looks like the SE ridge will not return later this month. Models have trended stronger with Arctic and Greenland blocking!

[boca]

The NAO is slowly creeping back to positive after the next few days and our temps will be seasonal nothing cold and nothing too warm, very boring weather in my opinion.

[Hurricane Alexis]

There's something strange about the persistent slight chance of showers forecast from the NWS for coastal Miami this night. It has been continuous showers since around 5 pm and the look on the radar is the same as it was then. Usually they bump the chances when the unexpected happens.

[psyclone]

The CPC outlooks over the next few weeks show normal to somewhat above normal conditions. I'm not seeing significant cold but we're not seeing torch weather either. It's been a nice start to winter with plenty of chilly but not freezing weather. Lots of wood smoke hanging in the air at night around here smells good and tells us the fireplaces and firepits are getting some love.

[boca]

Interesting 18zGFS has the rain/snow line at the Florida/Georgia border at 384 hours which is equivalent to a cat 5 hitting Miami but still eye candy hoping for an arctic front.