Texas Winter 2020-2021

[gpsnowman]

Larry Cosgrove hasn’t said much but that he’s leaning more toward sleet with a little snow at end right now. Hopefully can get some deeper cold.

Our old friend Steve McCauley anticipates some heavy, wet flakes with some accumulations with this system. My confidence level just went way up!!!!!

[gpsnowman]

Haha Brent you beat me to it!!!

[Ntxw]

I don't know if anyone saw Steve McCauley's post on Facebook but he seems to think someone around here will have a real snow

https://i.ibb.co/pR5nBK1/Screenshot-20201227-142311.png

Unless something drastic changes, I think winter storm watches may be warranted by Tuesday or Wednesday.

I don't think we will see significant upper flow changes but minor details highlighted by Bubba. I'm looking for the surface low to really deepen, and then we can maybe throw up the "B" word. I think the bigger concern may be that it gets so wrapped up the moisture plot will go too far east. There is usually a hard cutoff with such a wrapped up system...I mean the panhandle at this point may get nothing.

[cheezyWXguy]

Man this situation seems to be coming around, I was skeptical until I saw how the 12z suite came in. Haven’t seen this board light up like this in a long time, it’s refreshing. Still a fair amount of time for things to change but so far so good.

[Brent]

Man this situation seems to be coming around, I was skeptical until I saw how the 12z suite came in. Haven’t seen this board light up like this in a long time, it’s refreshing. Still a fair amount of time for things to change but so far so good.

I've become such a huge skeptic as much as I want it to snow but I have to admit this one feels different this isn't like those flizzard setups of the past few years

[bubba hotep]

FWD chimes in

[Brent]

FWD chimes in

https://pbs.twimg.com/media/EqPtDT8VQAEoQkp?format=jpg&name=medium

The AFD is still kind of meh but it's coming around considering they didn't even mention snow til yesterday

The models are in good agreement in wrapping precipitation around
the back side of this low across much of North and Central Texas
on Thursday, and have included high end chance PoPs in most areas.
MOS guidance from both the GFS and Euro actually depict
likely/categorical PoPs, and may have gone too low with
precipitation chances for Thursday. Uncertainty with the exact
track of the upper low is what held me back from going higher. Of
greater concern is the precipitation type. Kept mention of a
rain/snow mix across the western and northern counties for
Thursday, though believe (at this point anyway) that surface
temperatures will be too warm for accumulations. In leaning toward
the colder Euro solution, expanded the mention of snow into some
of our northeast, east central and southern zones as well on
Thursday. This may have been a bit aggressive this early, but
given the deepening trend of the Euro solution felt there was at
least some appreciable chance of a mix in these counties Thursday
morning. If the NBM guidance is to be believed, by afternoon, the
low level thermal profile may be a tad too warm in many places for
any snow to occur. Needless to say, there is still tremendous
uncertainty with the evolution of this portion of the forecast,
and how the upper low develops over us will play a key role.

[bubba hotep]

12z EPS for KDFW

[Haris]

EWX begins to discuss

[rwfromkansas]

What’s the NBM guidance mentioned? Never heard of that.

[Texas Snow]

What’s the NBM guidance mentioned? Never heard of that.

The National Blend of Models (NBM) is a nationally consistent and skillful suite of calibrated forecast guidance based on a blend of both NWS and non-NWS numerical weather prediction model data and post-processed model guidance. The goal of the NBM is to create a highly accurate, skillful and consistent starting point for the gridded forecast. This new way to produce NDFD grids will be helpful providing forecasters with a suite of information to use for their forecasts. The NBM is considered an important part of the efforts to evolve NWS capabilities to achieve a Weather-Ready Nation.

[bubba hotep]

18z GFS is another step in the right direction with better northern stream s/w timing.

[Haris]

Nightmare is ICON run

[HockeyTx82]

Nightmare is ICON run

What do you mean?

[Haris]

Nightmare is ICON run

What do you mean?

Low turns way too early to the north giving the snow only to the panhandle

[Texas Snowman]

I don't know if anyone saw Steve McCauley's post on Facebook but he seems to think someone around here will have a real snow

https://i.ibb.co/pR5nBK1/Screenshot-20201227-142311.png

Unless something drastic changes, I think winter storm watches may be warranted by Tuesday or Wednesday.

I don't think we will see significant upper flow changes but minor details highlighted by Bubba. I'm looking for the surface low to really deepen, and then we can maybe throw up the "B" word. I think the bigger concern may be that it gets so wrapped up the moisture plot will go too far east. There is usually a hard cutoff with such a wrapped up system...I mean the panhandle at this point may get nothing.

The “B” word?!?

Expect a strong rebuttal from Wxman57 any moment now, in “3, 2, 1....”

[cheezyWXguy]

Gfs starting to look like the cmc with those accumulations on the 18z. Still too warm for me to be comfortable but trending in the right direction

[bubba hotep]

18z GFS is another step in the right direction with better northern stream s/w timing.

Now for the gratuitous snow map

[EnnisTx]

I don't know if anyone saw Steve McCauley's post on Facebook but he seems to think someone around here will have a real snow

https://i.ibb.co/pR5nBK1/Screenshot-20201227-142311.png

Unless something drastic changes, I think winter storm watches may be warranted by Tuesday or Wednesday.

I don't think we will see significant upper flow changes but minor details highlighted by Bubba. I'm looking for the surface low to really deepen, and then we can maybe throw up the "B" word. I think the bigger concern may be that it gets so wrapped up the moisture plot will go too far east. There is usually a hard cutoff with such a wrapped up system...I mean the panhandle at this point may get nothing.

The “B” word?!?

Expect a strong rebuttal from Wxman57 any moment now, in “3, 2, 1....”

Let’s all hope he sticks with the tropical weather and doesn’t jinx us with the Heat
monger blues!

[Brent]

18z GFS is another step in the right direction with better northern stream s/w timing.

Now for the gratuitous snow map

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs/2020122718/gfs_asnow_scus_22.png

Where do I sign up