Texas Winter 2020-2021

Winter Weather Discussion

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EnnisTx
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Re: Texas Winter 2020-2021

#501 Postby EnnisTx » Wed Dec 30, 2020 1:22 pm

Brent wrote:
EnnisTx wrote:
Brent wrote:
true and i'd love for it to happen here but I'm not holding my breath or deciding til tomorrow



Would definitely be nice to see it here. I just bought some retirement property out in Tuscola Southwest of Abilene. Can't wait to get out that way so that I have a real shot at winter weather in the future.


awesome

their elevation is so much better than ours that explains a lot about these setups always being west


Yep. Elevation is around 1,970' vs 605' in Arlington. Big difference there and if it does snow there's a 300' foot mini mountain behind me.
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Re: Texas Winter 2020-2021

#502 Postby TXdaddy217 » Wed Dec 30, 2020 2:40 pm

Brent wrote:Im seriously considering driving to Abilene for this one :spam:

I'm hoping for a good snow event here. Our local news stations always play down the snow threat by saying "Wintry Mix" :cheesy:
Hope they dont jinx us this time.
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Re: Texas Winter 2020-2021

#503 Postby Yukon Cornelius » Wed Dec 30, 2020 2:41 pm

Looks like some snow is trying to mix in with the rain up this way.
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Re: Texas Winter 2020-2021

#504 Postby TropicalTundra » Wed Dec 30, 2020 2:47 pm

Light rain and Wind here. 48 degrees. Really want to get to see some flakes here. :spam:
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Re: Texas Winter 2020-2021

#505 Postby Brent » Wed Dec 30, 2020 2:53 pm

TXdaddy217 wrote:
Brent wrote:Im seriously considering driving to Abilene for this one :spam:

I'm hoping for a good snow event here. Our local news stations always play down the snow threat by saying "Wintry Mix" :cheesy:
Hope they dont jinx us this time.


The hi res models look really good over there I would expect a ramp up in wording when the NWS updates
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Re: Texas Winter 2020-2021

#506 Postby TropicalTundra » Wed Dec 30, 2020 3:12 pm

TXdaddy217 wrote:
Brent wrote:Im seriously considering driving to Abilene for this one :spam:

I'm hoping for a good snow event here. Our local news stations always play down the snow threat by saying "Wintry Mix" :cheesy:
Hope they dont jinx us this time.


LIGHT SNOW IN ABILENE CURRENTLY...

Image
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Re: Texas Winter 2020-2021

#507 Postby TarrantWx » Wed Dec 30, 2020 3:21 pm

The 18z HRRR just barely gets the Western half of the metroplex in on the action too. Hopefully it keeps shifting East.

Image
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Re: Texas Winter 2020-2021

#508 Postby Lagreeneyes03 » Wed Dec 30, 2020 4:37 pm

TarrantWx wrote:The 18z HRRR just barely gets the Western half of the metroplex in on the action too. Hopefully it keeps shifting East.

https://m1.pivotalweather.com/maps/models/hrrr/2020123018/040/sn10_acc.us_sc.png


Can you imagine this all shifting east 25 miles each run....
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Re: Texas Winter 2020-2021

#509 Postby Brent » Wed Dec 30, 2020 4:50 pm

Lagreeneyes03 wrote:
TarrantWx wrote:The 18z HRRR just barely gets the Western half of the metroplex in on the action too. Hopefully it keeps shifting East.

https://m1.pivotalweather.com/maps/models/hrrr/2020123018/040/sn10_acc.us_sc.png


Can you imagine this all shifting east 25 miles each run....


Seriously I'm not optimistic but we so deserve it lol
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Re: Texas Winter 2020-2021

#510 Postby gpsnowman » Wed Dec 30, 2020 4:58 pm

Lagreeneyes03 wrote:
TarrantWx wrote:The 18z HRRR just barely gets the Western half of the metroplex in on the action too. Hopefully it keeps shifting East.

https://m1.pivotalweather.com/maps/models/hrrr/2020123018/040/sn10_acc.us_sc.png


Can you imagine this all shifting east 25 miles each run....

Why yes, yes I can.
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Re: Texas Winter 2020-2021

#511 Postby cheezyWXguy » Wed Dec 30, 2020 5:34 pm

Anyone else notice that the 18z NAM brings flurries really close to dfw on Saturday morning?
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Re: Texas Winter 2020-2021

#512 Postby rwfromkansas » Wed Dec 30, 2020 6:07 pm

Western Tarrant where I am will have a very close shave. Still betting on it being too warm for anything but flurries.
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Re: Texas Winter 2020-2021

#513 Postby Wntrwthrguy » Wed Dec 30, 2020 6:53 pm

Back on December 7, 2017 Austin received snow from a setup that sounds similar to this one where the low moved overhead. I remember that snow wasn’t forecasted. Is someone able to provide the reasoning why this won’t happen tomorrow?
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Re: Texas Winter 2020-2021

#514 Postby EnnisTx » Wed Dec 30, 2020 7:10 pm

Wntrwthrguy wrote:Back on December 7, 2017 Austin received snow from a setup that sounds similar to this one where the low moved overhead. I remember that snow wasn’t forecasted. Is someone able to provide the reasoning why this won’t happen tomorrow?


It's not forcast to move over Austin.
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Re: Texas Winter 2020-2021

#515 Postby TropicalTundra » Wed Dec 30, 2020 7:21 pm

Wntrwthrguy wrote:Back on December 7, 2017 Austin received snow from a setup that sounds similar to this one where the low moved overhead. I remember that snow wasn’t forecasted. Is someone able to provide the reasoning why this won’t happen tomorrow?


The low was north of Austin in that setup, this low is supposed to go over the gulf where it will bring in the warm waters I think
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Re: Texas Winter 2020-2021

#516 Postby Brent » Wed Dec 30, 2020 7:30 pm

TropicalTundra wrote:
Wntrwthrguy wrote:Back on December 7, 2017 Austin received snow from a setup that sounds similar to this one where the low moved overhead. I remember that snow wasn’t forecasted. Is someone able to provide the reasoning why this won’t happen tomorrow?


The low was north of Austin in that setup, this low is supposed to go over the gulf where it will bring in the warm waters I think


If I recall it also went east to the southeast this one cuts north over Dallas which is even unfavorable up here unfortunately
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Re: Texas Winter 2020-2021

#517 Postby EnnisTx » Wed Dec 30, 2020 8:08 pm

Brent wrote:
TropicalTundra wrote:
Wntrwthrguy wrote:Back on December 7, 2017 Austin received snow from a setup that sounds similar to this one where the low moved overhead. I remember that snow wasn’t forecasted. Is someone able to provide the reasoning why this won’t happen tomorrow?


The low was north of Austin in that setup, this low is supposed to go over the gulf where it will bring in the warm waters I think


If I recall it also went east to the southeast this one cuts north over Dallas which is even unfavorable up here unfortunately


We would need it to move more towards Louisiana for it to help us.
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Re: Texas Winter 2020-2021

#518 Postby Brent » Wed Dec 30, 2020 8:15 pm

EnnisTx wrote:
Brent wrote:
TropicalTundra wrote:
The low was north of Austin in that setup, this low is supposed to go over the gulf where it will bring in the warm waters I think


If I recall it also went east to the southeast this one cuts north over Dallas which is even unfavorable up here unfortunately


We would need it to move more towards Louisiana for it to help us.


yeah if you notice where the snow is... it's behind the low or after the low passes you... if this was going over Houston/Shreveport like the Sunday runs it would have been a more classic snowstorm
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Re: Texas Winter 2020-2021

#519 Postby EnnisTx » Wed Dec 30, 2020 8:43 pm

Brent wrote:
EnnisTx wrote:
Brent wrote:
If I recall it also went east to the southeast this one cuts north over Dallas which is even unfavorable up here unfortunately


We would need it to move more towards Louisiana for it to help us.


yeah if you notice where the snow is... it's behind the low or after the low passes you... if this was going over Houston/Shreveport like the Sunday runs it would have been a more classic snowstorm


Here's hoping it moves about 60 miles further East than forcast.
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Re: Texas Winter 2020-2021

#520 Postby Portastorm » Wed Dec 30, 2020 9:22 pm

As y’all pointed out, the track of the upper level disturbance for the Austin snow event of December 7, 2017, was very different than what is predicted for tomorrow. The upper level trough in 2017 was much deeper and the disturbance tracked out of Mexico and thru South Texas. EWX has a complete analysis here:

https://www.weather.gov/ewx/wxevent-20171207
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