Texas Winter 2020-2021

[harp]

The Euro looks to have a lot more frozen precip south of Dallas

we better not miss to the south again

Can you post it?

[Brent]

The Euro looks to have a lot more frozen precip south of Dallas

we better not miss to the south again

Can you post it?

A lot of it looks to be icy? further south and in Louisiana but

[Cerlin]

I think showing plenty of snow south of DFW is a great thing if we want snow in North Texas. Most snowstorms that have shown wintry weather for DFW a week out go north to Oklahoma. These storm systems usually have a more northern trend as the runs go on...*usually*...but I am liking this setup a lot and hopefully the models continue to agree on some kind of system happening around the 9th/10th.

[Brent]

I think showing plenty of snow south of DFW is a great thing if we want snow in North Texas. Most snowstorms that have shown wintry weather for DFW a week out go north to Oklahoma. These storm systems usually have a more northern trend as the runs go on...*usually*...but I am liking this setup a lot and hopefully the models continue to agree on some kind of system happening around the 9th/10th.

that is the good news... we got screwed by the north trend last week, maybe we can benefit from one?

[WinterMax]

Seems to me like the CMC runs unrealistically cold, 5 to 10 degrees colder than the other models pretty regularly.

[gpsnowman]

Steve McCauley is keeping tabs on the system for next weekend. Says it is originating from Russia/Mongolia. Makes no promises but something for sure to watch regarding winter weather potential. Weather sure is amazing.

[Ntxw]

We're still hanging in the 120-150 hour range which is still a ways away.

I wouldn't get too worried about any set of runs just yet (or too excited). We got about 2-3 more days of trending to do before we even hit the NAM range. Pattern is ripe though and only getting better. Some good Pacific improvements.

[Cpv17]

I don’t have much confidence in this system yet. Definitely not getting my hopes up. The GFS is trending the wrong direction.

[TexasF6]

CMC puts a bonafide blizzard in Central Texas, AUSTIN INCLUDED!!!!!!!!!!!!! I know it's our Crazy Uncle, but bring it!!! The pattern is similar to King Euro. Porta? Thoughts? #ChampTime?

[Texas Snow]

Just remember that the Canadian had similar looking totals for the NYE storm over Dallas a week out and we got nothing.

[bubba hotep]

12z GFS is basically a perfect vort pass for DFW but surface temps are torching...

[Cerlin]

12z GFS is basically a perfect vort pass for DFW but surface temps are torching...

That was always one of the biggest issues with this blocking pattern—a lack of cold air buildup in Canada makes it way more difficult to get a cold shot here and we’d have to rely on a lot of wet bulb cooling and luck

[bubba hotep]

12z GFS is basically a perfect vort pass for DFW but surface temps are torching...

CMC shifted north with our system but is also warmer. It looks like there is a little kicker s/w between the mid-week system and the main system that sends down a reinforcing shot of cold air but it is missing on the 12z runs. This allows ridging b/w the two systems and temps warm up.

[cheezyWXguy]

12z GFS is basically a perfect vort pass for DFW but surface temps are torching...

Yep, this is why I’m not living/dying by surface depictions. This pattern is perfect, but the gfs depicts temps not getting below 40. It’s so close, and basically shows what it did yesterday, but with a warmer airmass in place. With 2 very different outcomes depicted based off such a similar pattern, how would we know at this point which one will be correct?

[Haris]

We need a southern track of the storm or else the warm nose will have everyone miss out. Need a track over San Antonio area ish

[bubba hotep]

12z GFS is basically a perfect vort pass for DFW but surface temps are torching...

CMC shifted north with our system but is also warmer. It looks like there is a little kicker s/w between the mid-week system and the main system that sends down a reinforcing shot of cold air but it is missing on the 12z runs. This allows ridging b/w the two systems and temps warm up.

CMC warms up more than previous runs b/w systems but still pulls down plenty of cold air on the backside. However, temps are borderline when the CMC drops a lot of this "snow"

[Ntxw]

12z GFS is basically a perfect vort pass for DFW but surface temps are torching...

Yep, this is why I’m not living/dying by surface depictions. This pattern is perfect, but the gfs depicts temps not getting below 40. It’s so close, and basically shows what it did yesterday, but with a warmer airmass in place. With 2 very different outcomes depicted based off such a similar pattern, how would we know at this point which one will be correct?

One thing to note. The last storm that missed us dug so far to the south into MX and moved much slower thus ahead of it was much much warmer on top of the warm air advection it was putting out. We will actually be starting out colder ahead of it (especially above the surface.)

I don't know if this translates to cold temps at the surface but from a standpoint of air masses, while not really cold it is better pre-conditioning than the last storm for I-35.

[bubba hotep]

12z GFS-P is a pounding for Oklahoma and this would match up with the trends so far this winter.

[Ntxw]

12z GFS is basically a perfect vort pass for DFW but surface temps are torching...

CMC shifted north with our system but is also warmer. It looks like there is a little kicker s/w between the mid-week system and the main system that sends down a reinforcing shot of cold air but it is missing on the 12z runs. This allows ridging b/w the two systems and temps warm up.

Ukmet only goes out to 144 but at that point it has a very deep full continental trough (very +PNA) to the west so that would be a colder solution. I'm curious which camp the Euro will go for?

[Brent]

12z euro mostly just south of DFW again further south looks more like ice