Texas Winter 2020-2021

[Ntxw]

Euro is definitely on the colder route and went the old CMC run.

So as it stands snow for North of DFW and snow for South of DFW depending on which model and which run you like!

[South Texas Storms]

One thing I'm noticing in the models regarding the weekend system is a lack of ice. This looks to be either a rain or snow event...thankfully freezing rain looks unlikely at this time.

[Ntxw]

Euro is definitely on the colder route and went the old CMC run.

So as it stands snow for North of DFW and snow for South of DFW depending on which model and which run you like!

To add I would take what the Euro is putting up at 500mb and 850mb temps. You can always shift and trend wetter but that's a good look. We all know what it means to be the bullseye a week out..

[rwfromkansas]

Man, DFW can't catch a break. Lol. I will say, if it can lay some snow north, it will help in marginal setups in the future, unless the upper air is torching.

But, come on. We will see. Nice to have an active pattern. With this continuing, I am confident it will be our turn. Central OK missed out on the first couple snows, and then they got it big the last time.

[South Texas Storms]

And another snow event for south central TX at the end of the 12z Euro run in 9-10 days. This run should go in the model snow hall of fame for Austin!

[Ntxw]

And another snow event for south central TX at the end of the 12z Euro run in 9-10 days. This run should go in the model snow hall of fame for Austin!

I got a good feeling for you guys!

We were already in a big run of blocking that's only getting even more blockier. It will not take much to snow! As I mentioned in a post before if we can just get one or two hits, we will look back at reanalysis maps and point how it was an insanely blocky winter on par with some of the best ones.

[Haris]

If I get 2 snowstorms in 10 days here, I’m gonna faint

[bubba hotep]

The most DFWlol snow run ever... We just need a big Oklahoma snowstorm during the day 10-15 range to make it perfect!

[Ralph's Weather]

I am loving what we are seeing on the models.

[cheezyWXguy]

I am loving what we are seeing on the models.

Honestly, I’m liking it too for dfw. It wouldn’t be far fetched to watch the northern camp and the southern camp converge in the middle. Doesn’t mean much at this point to not be in the bullseye

[Brent]

The most DFWlol snow run ever... We just need a big Oklahoma snowstorm during the day 10-15 range to make it perfect!

https://i.ibb.co/W51HHc8/DFWlol.png

Come on north trend don't fail us now

[Portastorm]

(channeling my inner Wxman57) Austin peeps ... don't get too excited just yet. The 0z Euro ensemble members were far from overwhelming in supporting what the operational run showed. I have not seen the 12z data yet but Houston-area met Matt Lanza tweeted the same ... not much support from the individual members. He is not bullish on the H-towns snow threat.

[amawea]

I am loving what we are seeing on the models.

Don't blink.

[Ntxw]

FWIW the midweek system is a pretty potent one that's going to bring down (aloft) cold air that will stick around. Again nothing majorly cold for the time of year but chilly enough ahead and keeps it that way until reinforcing shot arrives. Snow in Arkansas and thunderstorms in Houston.

[bubba hotep]

12z EPS members seems split b/w either an Oklahoma event or a Central Texas event, only a few members show a N. TX event.

[Cerlin]

I’m just saying, I don’t think it’s a good thing to be in the bullseye 5-6 days out. DFW was in the bullseye then last time and it didn’t work...I anticipate many changes to the model runs as the event gets closer

[gpsnowman]

Wow I had to work a few hours and catching up on all the posts. Some region is going to get nailed. Hopefully DFW obviously.

[Texas Snow]

NWSFWD looking for some clarity as well

Late Saturday into Sunday another shortwave will dig into the
Southern Plains. The latest model runs provide no additional
clarity on potential track of the surface low. The GFS maintains
that the low will track somewhere across North Texas. This
solution leaves a larger portion of the region in the warm sector,
favoring an all-liquid precipitation type and potentially a chance for
thunderstorms Sunday afternoon. Alternatively, the ECMWF and
Canadian bring the track much further south, which introduces the
potential for wintry precipitation to mix in with the cold rain
across parts of North and Central Texas. In the absence of a
consensus or better run-to-run consistency, no mention of thunder
or frozen precipitation has been included in the gridded
forecast.

Watch the low and see which model starts caving first.

[bubba hotep]

Through 120hr, the 18z GFS is more amped up out west vs 12z. This should result in the system digging a bit more and not being as flat/progressive as 12z.

[Brent]

40s and rain on the GFS again