Texas Winter 2020-2021

[bubba hotep]

40s and rain on the GFS again

Looks colder aloft but no major changes despite looking better earlier in the run at H5.

[orangeblood]

40s and rain on the GFS again

Looks colder aloft but no major changes despite looking better earlier in the run at H5.

Much colder aloft, any heavy precip temps will plummet. GFS surface reflection looks off!!!

[Ntxw]

Yeah 850mb temps are quite different between 18z and 12z much colder aloft. Windshield wipe . That's kind of what you want for a trend, you want cold 850mb temps, good vortmax, and saturated lower levels (not too cold and dry).

18z


12z

[Ntxw]

For comparison here was the 12z Euro for the same period.

[orangeblood]

For comparison here was the 12z Euro for the same period.

Euro shows this scenario on 12Z quite well. Heavier precip pulls cold air aloft down to surface while light precip doesn’t.... it’s why snow accumulations are further south across central Texas even though North Texas gets precip, it’s just on the lighter side

[JDawg512]

The battle for which region wins the winter weather prize has begun. Austin vs DFW...

I'm on team Austin...!

[Brent]

The battle for which region wins the winter weather prize has begun. Austin vs DFW...

I'm on team Austin...!

DFW hasn't won in over 5 years lmao

Austin won in 17 or 18

GEFS mean doesn't seem overly excited

[TexasF6]

The battle for which region wins the winter weather prize has begun. Austin vs DFW...

I'm on team Austin...!

LET'S GO TEAM AUSTIN!!!!

[Haris]

Team Austin AND team Dallas

[Brent]

Team Austin AND team Dallas

Yeah honestly why not I hate how it's a competition

Especially when DFW has always lost lol

[Texas Snow]

Team Austin AND team Dallas

Yeah honestly why not I hate how it's a competition

Especially when DFW has always lost SINCE I MOVED HERE lol

FIFY

[Brent]

Team Austin AND team Dallas

Yeah honestly why not I hate how it's a competition

Especially when DFW has always lost SINCE I MOVED HERE lol

FIFY

[gpsnowman]

Team Austin AND team Dallas

Yeah honestly why not I hate how it's a competition

Especially when DFW has always lost SINCE I MOVED HERE lol

FIFY

To be fair he was here for our last snow in 2015. I will not vouch after that though.

[Brent]

Yeah honestly why not I hate how it's a competition

Especially when DFW has always lost SINCE I MOVED HERE lol

FIFY

To be fair he was here for our last snow in 2015. I will not vouch after that though.

I mean I even took several vacations and it still didn't snow really lmao

[rwfromkansas]

I moved here in late 2014, so I had a couple of good snows, then zip. The way some of those set up was to give me good snow when people east got rain in Dallas, so I thought I was well-positioned in western Tarrant just west of 35, but ever since, that hasn't helped me. Lol. I was still far too east....or north when Waco or somebody else got it.

[bubba hotep]

18z GFS-P is a big Oklahoma snowstorm. It looks like the 18z Euro EPS has more members with a snowstorm centered over N. TX vs. 12z. This is going to be a wild ride with multiple s/w crashing in under the block. We probably won't truly start to pin things down until the 1st one is clearing out (Wed/Thur) and the middle kicker is resolved.

Thursday evening should start to pin things down as our system is just coming onshore?

[Brent]

18z GFS-P is a big Oklahoma snowstorm. It looks like the 18z Euro EPS has more members with a snowstorm centered over N. TX vs. 12z. This is going to be a wild ride with multiple s/w crashing in under the block. We probably won't truly start to pin things down until the 1st one is clearing out (Wed/Thur) and the middle kicker is resolved.

Thursday evening should start to pin things down as our system is just coming onshore?

https://i.ibb.co/k4q1Y76/ecmwf-z500a-Norm-namer-5.png

The Oklahoma snow was cute at first but I'm over it now lol time for someone else to cash in

[Cerlin]

Man OKC has gotten almost a foot of snow this year...that’s more than DFW’s last 7 years combined. And if you only include the last 5 years, that’s almost a foot of snow more! I’d love to see this next system break that trend.

[Brent]

GFS is again rain for DFW although there is some snow in East Texas

CMC looking interesting again for DFW

[Brent]

Haha interesting isn't the word for this February 2010 redux