
Texas Winter 2020-2021
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Re: Texas Winter 2020-2021
It has been years since I have been jacked up for a winter storm. March 2015 to be exact. Man, this could be the whopper we have been waiting for. Still several days out, what could possibly go wrong??? 

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- Texas Snow
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Re: Texas Winter 2020-2021
gpsnowman wrote:It has been years since I have been jacked up for a winter storm. March 2015 to be exact. Man, this could be the whopper we have been waiting for. Still several days out, what could possibly go wrong???
Ban user for jinx related comments


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Re: Texas Winter 2020-2021
South Texas Storms wrote:12z Euro Ensemble looks good. Trended snowier across the northern half of the state.
Yes, it does...backs up the Euro. Definitely a great trend, goes from this to this in past 12 hrs...These are mean numbers too, some really big storms among the suite range!!


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Re: Texas Winter 2020-2021
Texas Snow wrote:gpsnowman wrote:It has been years since I have been jacked up for a winter storm. March 2015 to be exact. Man, this could be the whopper we have been waiting for. Still several days out, what could possibly go wrong???
Ban user for jinx related comments![]()
Just trying my best to contain my childlike glee in case something awful happens.

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Re: Texas Winter 2020-2021
gpsnowman wrote:It has been years since I have been jacked up for a winter storm. March 2015 to be exact. Man, this could be the whopper we have been waiting for. Still several days out, what could possibly go wrong???
Seriously?! You know better. Don't make me suspend your account.

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Any forecasts under my name are to be taken with a grain of salt. Get your best forecasts from the National Weather Service and National Hurricane Center.
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Re: Texas Winter 2020-2021
CMC says 13 inches of snow for me, can't wait to see not a single flake fall like it did to me New Years eve



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Summer's for hibernation, Winter’s my vacation
Don't use my posts as forecast, I'm a complete meteorology noob! I just like cold weather, alright?
All observations I post are for Temple, Texas unless otherwise stated.
Don't use my posts as forecast, I'm a complete meteorology noob! I just like cold weather, alright?
All observations I post are for Temple, Texas unless otherwise stated.
Re: Texas Winter 2020-2021
Portastorm wrote:gpsnowman wrote:It has been years since I have been jacked up for a winter storm. March 2015 to be exact. Man, this could be the whopper we have been waiting for. Still several days out, what could possibly go wrong???
Seriously?! You know better. Don't make me suspend your account.
Haha ok I will behave myself better. Nothing will go wrong!! Snow for all!!!
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Re: Texas Winter 2020-2021
These NAM runs starting later is going to be some nail biters. So many will look to see how much, if any.
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The above post and any post by Ntxw is NOT an official forecast and should not be used as such. It is just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is NOT endorsed by any professional institution including Storm2k. For official information, please refer to NWS products.
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Re: Texas Winter 2020-2021
Portastorm wrote:gpsnowman wrote:It has been years since I have been jacked up for a winter storm. March 2015 to be exact. Man, this could be the whopper we have been waiting for. Still several days out, what could possibly go wrong???
Seriously?! You know better. Don't make me suspend your account.
Rofl right
I'm still having flashbacks to last week but at least this is still heavier to the south so there's room for error
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Re: Texas Winter 2020-2021
Brent wrote:Portastorm wrote:gpsnowman wrote:It has been years since I have been jacked up for a winter storm. March 2015 to be exact. Man, this could be the whopper we have been waiting for. Still several days out, what could possibly go wrong???
Seriously?! You know better. Don't make me suspend your account.
Rofl right
I'm still having flashbacks to last week but at least this is still heavier to the south so there's room for error
As has been stated the overall set-up is much better for us east of I-35 this go around. Primarily this one is going to be able to stay south into Louisiana keeping us on the cold side. The cold is also better this time it appears.
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Re: Texas Winter 2020-2021
While all eyes are on the possible snow this weekend, we do have an increasing threat of severe weather across southeast Texas this afternoon. A squall line will likely be moving across Houston and surrounding areas over the next few hours. Stay safe yall!
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Re: Texas Winter 2020-2021
South Texas Storms wrote:While all eyes are on the possible snow this weekend, we do have an increasing threat of severe weather across southeast Texas this afternoon. A squall line will likely be moving across Houston and surrounding areas over the next few hours. Stay safe yall!
The 60% chance of rain for DFW this morning and afternoon was a BUST


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Re: Texas Winter 2020-2021
Ntxw wrote:These NAM runs starting later is going to be some nail biters. So many will look to see how much, if any.
Come on NAM, can you please go out further already???
Alas we will have to wait


Last edited by Texas Snow on Wed Jan 06, 2021 3:45 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: Texas Winter 2020-2021
NAM is starting to get close to our time frame of concern on Sunday now. 18z run 500 mb set up looks good and not too different from today's 12z Euro run.
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Re: Texas Winter 2020-2021
CaptinCrunch wrote:South Texas Storms wrote:While all eyes are on the possible snow this weekend, we do have an increasing threat of severe weather across southeast Texas this afternoon. A squall line will likely be moving across Houston and surrounding areas over the next few hours. Stay safe yall!
The 60% chance of rain for DFW this morning and afternoon was a BUSTAll we saw were clouds
Been raining all day with several rounds of thunder here in Lindale.
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Re: Texas Winter 2020-2021
Right on cue, FW NWS office changes their tone quite substantially!!!!
&&
.LONG TERM... /NEW/
/Thursday Night Through Wednesday/
Seasonably cool and fair weather will prevail Thursday night
through Saturday as the region will be in between upper level
systems. A large sprawling surface high pressure will remain
planted over the central Plains which will keep weak north winds
and continued cold advection in place to counter solar heating.
Temperatures will be near normal, but considering it`s the coolest
part of the year, those temperatures may be noteworthy to some.
Lows will be in the 20s and 30s with highs near 50 degrees.
Obviously the main forecast concern is the potential for snow on
Sunday. An upper level trough across the northeastern Pacific
Ocean will crash ashore in the Pacific NW and Canadian coastline
on Friday. Energy at the base of the trough will slide beneath
more pronounced ridging aloft along the western continent and
then drop southeast into the Four Corners region Saturday, close
off, and track through Texas on Sunday. From a synoptic and
climatological standpoint this is an excellent upper level pattern
for snow to occur in Texas as it brings cold air, lift, and
moisture all into play Sunday. While model guidance at first
glance may suggest that surface temps are a little too warm for
snow, the airmass aloft will be unusually cold with 850mb temps
dropping to -2C to -6C across the region with 500 mb temps at
-26C within the core of the upper low.
But don`t buy those snowman kits just yet. The main uncertainty
is the track of the upper level low which will dictate the areas
that get snow and the ones that either are cloudy or rainy. As of
now there`s 2 general scenarios, both highlighted in the ensemble
data: a weaker upper low and a more northern track, and a stronger
low with a more southern track. The southern track seems to be the
more likely solution based on cluster analysis of the ensemble
members and the primary deterministic runs of the global models.
This track means that snow potential tapers off dramatically north
of I-20 with Central Texas seeing the higher totals. The weaker
northern solutions means more rain than snow across Central
Texas, with the higher snow totals along the I-20 corridor. But
it`s also worth nothing that a deeper and more southerly track
may also allow the upper low to swing northeast through East Texas
and bring snow northward Sunday evening. All said, it`s too early
to pick a forecast track solution and we will stick close to the
NBM blend. This will advertise the highest PoPs in the Central
Texas Sunday, tapering down to slight chance north of I-20. For
precipitation type, since the surface layer may need to be cooled
by precipitation, it may start out as rain early Sunday but should
transition to snow. Given the cold temps aloft, any areas that do
see sufficient precipitation should cool to near freezing and
accumulations would occur. We do not expect temps to get much
below freezing which will help keep roads more slushy than icy at
least through Sunday night. It`s too early to talk about
accumulation totals, but needless to say accumulations somewhere
in our CWA look like a good bet. Again, the worded forecast will
stay generic with precipitation type being advertised as a rain
and snow mix.
The upper low will exit Sunday night, but have slowed down the
ending of the PoPs based on the new 12z guidance which is a little
slower. Clearing skies should occur early Monday and we`ll see a
return to our seasonably cool and quiet weather. Highs will be in
the 50s and lows will be in the 20s and 30s for the first part of
next week.
TR.92
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Re: Texas Winter 2020-2021
Ralph's Weather wrote:CaptinCrunch wrote:South Texas Storms wrote:While all eyes are on the possible snow this weekend, we do have an increasing threat of severe weather across southeast Texas this afternoon. A squall line will likely be moving across Houston and surrounding areas over the next few hours. Stay safe yall!
The 60% chance of rain for DFW this morning and afternoon was a BUSTAll we saw were clouds
Been raining all day with several rounds of thunder here in Lindale.
Yeah, everything stayed well south of DFW as always.
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Re: Texas Winter 2020-2021
Mr. Cosgrove seems confident in some pattern changes later in January. After the weekend event it appears much colder weather could be released into the lower 48. More storms perhaps? Lets keep it going!! His words are below.
So far, many of the key features forecasted by analog guidance have come true. We have had important southern branch disturbances, temperatures overall have been less than the record warmth predicted by model guidance, and the La Nina episode is showing signs of weakening. The circumpolar vortex is becoming displaced and stretched, snow cover is expanding southward, and the first signs of high-latitude blocking are evident along the Arctic Circle in and about North America. So my confidence is growing that we will transition from a normal/mild alignment in the lower 48 states to colder profiles along and south of the Canadian border in the last half of the month.
All of that to consider, I caution that we will likely not see a "vast and fast" push of Arctic air toward the southern latitudes of the U.S. until past the middle of this month. The analogs show the colder air moving down only in pulses, with tendencies for mild/moist air along the East Coast and mild/dry values in the Pacific shoreline communities. If the -ENSO episode do readingses climb toward negative/neutral as most of the modeling suggests, then the credibility for a more impressive dose of cold readings will be increasing.
I will raise the issue of the warming of the stratosphere once again, since all of the computer models have virtually the same idea with respect to the episode, and its likely effects at lower levels of the atmosphere. One possible feedback of the moderation and splitting of the circumpolar vortex will be a broad, high-velocity southern branch jet stream at 500MB by the last week of January. If you follow the accepted "working down to the boundary layer' progression, you can make a very real case for a major winter storm along the Eastern Seaboard in the first week of February. I know that is a long way away, but the various schemes have handled the upper and middle atmospheric alignment well (though not the 2m temperature outlines, which have been laughable), and the tendency to collect cAk air in the Great Lakes and middle Appalachia against a warm, open watershed could produce spectacular vertical motion and snow/ice production. Especially if a Miller A type storm gets entrained by the vortex remnant. This is why I am urging everyone to keep close track of the 10MB forecasts, and project core height centers two to three weeks in lower altitudes. It looks very interesting to say the least.
For middle January, we keep a basic cool/mild Canada vs. cold U.S., with the likelihood of a strong/significant storm from Texas into the Mid-Atlantic in the 11 - 15 and 16 - 20 day periods.
Prepared by Meteorologist LARRY COSGROVE on
Saturday, January 2, 2020 at 9:35 P.M. CT
So far, many of the key features forecasted by analog guidance have come true. We have had important southern branch disturbances, temperatures overall have been less than the record warmth predicted by model guidance, and the La Nina episode is showing signs of weakening. The circumpolar vortex is becoming displaced and stretched, snow cover is expanding southward, and the first signs of high-latitude blocking are evident along the Arctic Circle in and about North America. So my confidence is growing that we will transition from a normal/mild alignment in the lower 48 states to colder profiles along and south of the Canadian border in the last half of the month.
All of that to consider, I caution that we will likely not see a "vast and fast" push of Arctic air toward the southern latitudes of the U.S. until past the middle of this month. The analogs show the colder air moving down only in pulses, with tendencies for mild/moist air along the East Coast and mild/dry values in the Pacific shoreline communities. If the -ENSO episode do readingses climb toward negative/neutral as most of the modeling suggests, then the credibility for a more impressive dose of cold readings will be increasing.
I will raise the issue of the warming of the stratosphere once again, since all of the computer models have virtually the same idea with respect to the episode, and its likely effects at lower levels of the atmosphere. One possible feedback of the moderation and splitting of the circumpolar vortex will be a broad, high-velocity southern branch jet stream at 500MB by the last week of January. If you follow the accepted "working down to the boundary layer' progression, you can make a very real case for a major winter storm along the Eastern Seaboard in the first week of February. I know that is a long way away, but the various schemes have handled the upper and middle atmospheric alignment well (though not the 2m temperature outlines, which have been laughable), and the tendency to collect cAk air in the Great Lakes and middle Appalachia against a warm, open watershed could produce spectacular vertical motion and snow/ice production. Especially if a Miller A type storm gets entrained by the vortex remnant. This is why I am urging everyone to keep close track of the 10MB forecasts, and project core height centers two to three weeks in lower altitudes. It looks very interesting to say the least.
For middle January, we keep a basic cool/mild Canada vs. cold U.S., with the likelihood of a strong/significant storm from Texas into the Mid-Atlantic in the 11 - 15 and 16 - 20 day periods.
Prepared by Meteorologist LARRY COSGROVE on
Saturday, January 2, 2020 at 9:35 P.M. CT
Last edited by gpsnowman on Wed Jan 06, 2021 8:14 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: Texas Winter 2020-2021
South Texas Storms wrote:NAM is starting to get close to our time frame of concern on Sunday now. 18z run 500 mb set up looks good and not too different from today's 12z Euro run.
ICON has changed its tune at the 500mb level. While the surface is still so so, it's drastically shifted way north of the ejection of the vorticity and closer to the other guidance from 24 hours ago.
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The above post and any post by Ntxw is NOT an official forecast and should not be used as such. It is just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is NOT endorsed by any professional institution including Storm2k. For official information, please refer to NWS products.
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