Texas Winter 2020-2021

[HockeyTx82]

6in in Denton County on 18z GFS.

Can I lock that one in??

I have a feeling that this storm could pile up a lot of posts in the next few days.

Got my vote

[Cpv17]

That doesn’t look good for southeast Texas. Good thing I didn’t get my hopes up lol

Anyone south of I10 should never get their hopes up. Me, on the other hand, in West-Central Montgomery County, has a much higher probability each Winter than someone in SW Houston, and that isn't saying much.

Looks like I could see a heavy rain/snow mix at the end, but I'm almost on the southern edge of accumulating snow, so that could easily go away.

I wouldn’t get your hopes up for anything except a really cold rain. It was looking good till 12z today. Still time though for it to change.

[rwfromkansas]

NWS Midland put a graphic up saying they believe heaviest snow will be north of there, so they are lining up with a more northern track, good for DFW projecting east.

I will say looking at the FWD graphic mentioned below it seems to be closer to the southern route they are considering.

[Texas Snow]

NWS Midland put a graphic up saying they believe heaviest snow will be north of there, so they are lining up with a more northern track, good for DFW projecting east.

If you look at the Fort Worth graphic I don’t think the Midland offices graphic suggests the northern route. It doesn’t really weigh on the issue either way by comparing the two. Tomorrow is the day I think we will truly start to lock in.




Anyone keeping an eye on 18z Euro?

I may have to pay for a Euro sub before this is over. Maybe I could use it multiple times this winter

[bubba hotep]

Anyone keeping an eye on 18z Euro?

I may have to pay for a Euro sub before this is over. Maybe I could use it multiple times this winter

Only goes out to 90hrs, I didn't notice any big changes up to that point. I'll look at the ensemble in a bit when I have some free time.

[txtwister78]

Anyone keeping an eye on 18z Euro?

I may have to pay for a Euro sub before this is over. Maybe I could use it multiple times this winter

18z ENS keeps bulk of the snow over Central Texas. That's where I think this is going. Euro has really been the most consistent. Noticed the FWD in their afternoon discussion felt this was the more likely path compared to the northern track.

[starsfan65]

Anyone keeping an eye on 18z Euro?

I may have to pay for a Euro sub before this is over. Maybe I could use it multiple times this winter

18z ENS keeps bulk of the snow over Central Texas. That's where I think this is going. Euro has really been the most consistent. Noticed the FWD in their afternoon discussion felt this was the more likely path compared to the northern track.

Central Texas?

[bubba hotep]

[EnnisTx]

https://pbs.twimg.com/media/ErFCgi2VcAA2g8s?format=jpg&name=large

I think it will split the distance somewhere between Hillsboro and Corsicana and exit somewhere in East Teas to the Northeast. Not a forecast, just an opinion.

[txtwister78]

Anyone keeping an eye on 18z Euro?

I may have to pay for a Euro sub before this is over. Maybe I could use it multiple times this winter

18z ENS keeps bulk of the snow over Central Texas. That's where I think this is going. Euro has really been the most consistent. Noticed the FWD in their afternoon discussion felt this was the more likely path compared to the northern track.

Central Texas?

Yes. FWD also mentioned that they believe the more southern track in their graphic this afternoon is the more likely track as of now.

[bubba hotep]

18z GFS-P with a shift northward but, if you look really close, it carves out an 0" area right over DFW Airport (official record station for Dallas) lol

[Texas Snow]

18z GFS-P with a shift northward but, if you look really close, it carves out an 0" area right over DFW Airport (official record station for Dallas) lol

Good lord that gives me under 1/2 inch with multi inch a few neighborhoods away

I may have to spend the weekend at the lake in this scenario with 8 inches. EDIT: my wife just agreed!

Can’t wait for tomorrow’s models (and even later tonight)!!!

[Texas Snowman]

18z GFS-P with a shift northward but, if you look really close, it carves out an 0" area right over DFW Airport (official record station for Dallas) lol

https://maps9.pivotalweather.com/maps/models/gfs_para/2021010618/234/sn10_acc.us_sc.png

Seems reminiscent to the January 1982 snowstorm that buried southern portions of North Central Texas. From NWS:

January 13, 1982
Between 6-10 inches fell in a band from Hamilton to Hillsboro to Tyler, with Clifton and Itasca reporting 15 inches for the event. The totals easily place this event among the greatest North Texas snowfalls of the 20th century.

At least four inches fell south of a line through Abilene-Dublin-Corsicana-Longview, and north of a line through San Angelo-San Saba-Marlin-Jacksonville. Only a trace fell in the Dallas/Fort Worth and Temple areas with this event.”

FYI, the Air Florida plane crash into the frozen Potomac River in Washington, D.C. happened the same day.

[Brent]

18z GFS-P with a shift northward but, if you look really close, it carves out an 0" area right over DFW Airport (official record station for Dallas) lol

https://maps9.pivotalweather.com/maps/models/gfs_para/2021010618/234/sn10_acc.us_sc.png

That gradient in the northern suburbs is hilarious

FWIW Steve McCauley still thinks the best snow will be in the southern half of the area

[Ralph's Weather]

18z GFS-P with a shift northward but, if you look really close, it carves out an 0" area right over DFW Airport (official record station for Dallas) lol

https://maps9.pivotalweather.com/maps/models/gfs_para/2021010618/234/sn10_acc.us_sc.png

This is pretty close to the forecast map I am working on though I am about half those totals for now. I am holding strong to a I 20 sweet spot being where the heavy precip meets temps cold enough for the whole event to be snow. If colder temps play out then I could see the Deep E TX spot also though maybe for 6 inches not 18.

[Brandon8181]

I have a special announcement for you guys:

"You want snow, you got snow!" It is coming! Enjoy!

[Brent]

Pete Delkus what can go wrong

He does still favor south for better totals but mentioned it could shift north

[Ntxw]

A lot will ride on the upper cold in place and what happens upstream in the Pacific Northwest. The stronger or the more prominent this feature, the harder the north/negative turn which would also yield higher precip totals all round, but of course more struggling with temps in the south. A weaker feature will probably feature a more suppressed/positive-neutral look with lower qpf however colder to the south.

[EnnisTx]

Pete Delkus what can go wrong

He does still favor south for better totals but mentioned it could shift north

https://i.ibb.co/9GPWGZZ/FB-IMG-1609986275850.jpg

It's going to be a little more North so this is our time Brent.
These other folks just need to load up the truck and move North.

[Brent]

The end of the NAM Dallas on the line heavy snow in the northern suburbs