Texas Winter 2020-2021

[Haris]

12z NAM shifts slightly south, but is still in very good shape for NTX. I would not get hung up on where within the swatch the highest accumulations are depicted. These are clearly a result of convective banding which is still too far out to accurately resolve. Would like to see that upper low track edge back north a little though

No hush it is perfect lol. Manages to get Houston Austin Dallas all several inches.

[Portastorm]

Gang, please keep in mind that the storm system scheduled to possibly bring some of us some wintry fun is still out over the Pacific Ocean. The models won't even have a decent read on the system until it is sampled better about 24 hours from now. I really wouldn't get too hung up over ANY model run at this point.

[DonWrk]

Gang, please keep in mind that the storm system scheduled to possibly bring some of us some wintry fun is still out over the Pacific Ocean. The models won't even have a decent read on the system until it is sampled better about 24 hours from now. I really wouldn't get too hung up over ANY model run at this point.

Please keep in mind we've been antsy and waiting years for something like this! Lol we're clinging onto every model run, we just can't help ourselves.

[bubba hotep]

Gang, please keep in mind that the storm system scheduled to possibly bring some of us some wintry fun is still out over the Pacific Ocean. The models won't even have a decent read on the system until it is sampled better about 24 hours from now. I really wouldn't get too hung up over ANY model run at this point.

What fun is that? Boooo

[Portastorm]

What can I say? With Wxman57 down right now due to injury, his alter ego has taken over at the Portastorm Weather Center.

[txtwister78]

Still believe this is more Central Texas oriented. Notice the ICON shifted back to a more southerly track. The SREF members show a more southerly track (at least for now). Yes still plenty to watch. Hopefully everyone in North and Central Texas gets something out of this though.

[Texas Snow]

True, I do think we all need a reality check (and on cue The 12z ICON isnt looking great) and Wxman57 is usually that guy. Hopefully he is feeling better.

[AubreyStorm]

https://i.ibb.co/NCmMVWb/9-D48-E4-A2-C068-4-E3-E-A659-318-A78343-F72.png

(I keep trying my best but I’m not sure I’m formatting these images right)

[Ntxw]

Ah yes music to my ears when we are fighting for totals! Lets get the track and cold down first . Good sign right?

[Ralph's Weather]

After the Sunday storm there are still a couple trailing shortwaves for next week, for now they are expected to pass by dry. I think the GFS is way too warm next week.

[CaptinCrunch]

What we are seeing is a very real possibility of winter weather over a good portion of Texas. Models won't be good till Saturday night Sunday morning when we have a better understanding to track of amounts. While I am excited for this system there are still a lot at work and it's just best to take everything with a grain of salt.

I really feel this may surprise a bunch of us while some may just want to cry....LOL Let's just enjoy the ride and see what shakes out in 72 hrs.

[benrayrog]

So 72 hours or so out, what is the confidence level of the "smart guys" on the board that NTX and ETX will experience winter weather of some significance come Sunday?

[rwfromkansas]

A lot of the experts are still going further south track. Hopefully they are just being cautious...

But, either way, I am excited something decent will hit. I just hope I get 4-5 inches, not 1.

[CaptinCrunch]

A lot of the experts are still going further south track. Hopefully they are just being cautious...

But, either way, I am excited something decent will hit. I just hope I get 4-5 inches, not 1.

No disrespect to the experts but I have seen then be just as wrong as some of us amateurs. It's not uncommon for track shifts to accrue during the track accross, or for a system to completely slow down and just dump a ton like the 2010 storm did.

[Texas Snow]

12Z GFS seems to have shifted North at first glance but still not laying down snow as much as the others (probably still due to warmth)

6z



12z

[starsfan65]

Portastorm is right. The storm is still in the Pacific Ocean. We have to wait until it reaches land to find out where it is going.

[rwfromkansas]

That GFS run basically says it's another West-Central TX snow, and no snow for everybody else. Hmm. Seems to match climo better than it snowing all the way down to Houston, but hopefully it's too warm.

[Ralph's Weather]

So 72 hours or so out, what is the confidence level of the "smart guys" on the board that NTX and ETX will experience winter weather of some significance come Sunday?

I think chances are quite high for southern N TX to see 6-12" Sunday and for E TX south of I-20 to see the same Sunday night into Monday.

[Haris]

holy moly death band

[Cerlin]

GFS is definitely way too warm again and until other models show that, I wouldn’t bother worrying about it.