Texas Winter 2020-2021

[gboudx]

No sneaux on Sunday! It'll probably block the DirecTV feed and I won't be able to watch the Saints game!

Just kidding. Although that may happen, I can watch on Amazon Prime. I see Lucy teeing up the football. Do I run and take a kick or not?

[EnnisTx]

I will take anything as long as it breaks the drought. Even if that’s just an inch. Especially if it overperforms a la 2010.

That would be amazing if it outperformed like 2010. I actually had just over 14" in that storm and remember driving down the country roads to my house and seeing several cars in the ditch completely covered with snow drifts.

[EnnisTx]

No sneaux on Sunday! It'll probably block the DirecTV feed and I won't be able to watch the Saints game!

Just kidding. Although that may happen, I can watch on Amazon Prime. I see Lucy teeing up the football. Do I run and take a kick or not?

I'm going to say kick the hell out of it. We've got a storm to come....

[orangeblood]

Not sure if it was mentioned but the SREF had a massive northern shift from the 15z to the 21z, looking way more in line with the RGEM, NAM, and Euro

Yes it is, with many going the 2010 route...GFS and it’s Ensembles are clear outliers at this point

[Wntrwthrguy]

Not sure if it was mentioned but the SREF had a massive northern shift from the 15z to the 21z, looking way more in line with the RGEM, NAM, and Euro

Yes it is, with many going the 2010 route...GFS and it’s Ensembles are clear outliers at this point

I take it this is bad news for those just north of Austin?

[Haris]

Not sure if it was mentioned but the SREF had a massive northern shift from the 15z to the 21z, looking way more in line with the RGEM, NAM, and Euro

Yes it is, with many going the 2010 route...GFS and it’s Ensembles are clear outliers at this point

I take it this is bad news for those just north of Austin?

Yeah it’s over it seems. Painful but if you can, just drive N. Hurts a lot when you miss by just 40 miles

[Brent]

Yes it is, with many going the 2010 route...GFS and it’s Ensembles are clear outliers at this point

I take it this is bad news for those just north of Austin?

Yeah it’s over it seems. Painful but if you can, just drive N. Hurts a lot when you miss by just 40 miles

Time for a road trip at least it's a Sunday lol

[Texas Snow]

Can someone post where the storm is in the ocean?

It's currently just to the west offshore of Washington state and Oregon. It will get blocked (-AO/NAO) and head south-east and meander through Texas.

[

[Brent]

We've officially hit that phase where the models don't load fast enough I've forgotten what this is like lmao

Okay I've done it with hurricanes but still

[cheezyWXguy]

Oof, 0z nam isn’t quite as generous

[Ntxw]

Oof, 0z nam isn’t quite as generous

It shifted more north with the snow but also a little less qpf.

[Brent]

Oof, 0z nam isn’t quite as generous

It shifted more north with the snow but also a little less qpf.

Weird hole in the precip over DFW

[Ntxw]

Oof, 0z nam isn’t quite as generous

It shifted more north with the snow but also a little less qpf.

Weird hole in the precip over DFW

https://i.ibb.co/P6V2qxt/namconus-ref-frzn-scus-48.png

Waco which has been dumped on in the model world gets a dusting.

[Brent]

It shifted more north with the snow but also a little less qpf.

Weird hole in the precip over DFW

https://i.ibb.co/P6V2qxt/namconus-ref-frzn-scus-48.png

Waco which has been dumped on in the model world gets a dusting.

Yeah still a solid run for DFW

[Haris]

Was thinking about getting a hotel booking in Waco and now I saw this run and now I worry about if it will even snow there

[TeamPlayersBlue]

For us folks in SE Tx, 850 low temps seems to be the difference in us having a snow event or not. Here are the differences in the GFS and the NAM.

Thank you for the posting pic advice!
18z GFS


18z NAM



Biased me likes the NAM, obviously, but having the 0C line for the 850 only seems right to be on the western side of the 850 low.
We need some help with cold air, obviously. 0z coming soon.

[rwfromkansas]

Why is the heavy stuff thinner and there a gap between the two heavy areas? I wonder what’s different besides being a bit further north.

[EnnisTx]

Oof, 0z nam isn’t quite as generous

It shifted more north with the snow but also a little less qpf.

Weird hole in the precip over DFW

https://i.ibb.co/P6V2qxt/namconus-ref-frzn-scus-48.png

Yes, but this loop is around 00z Monday morning as it's coming to an end.

[Texas Snow]

If nothing else it’s starting to look more realistic. Those huge full state ones with tons of snow looked awesome but we all knew in our gut it wouldn’t happen. Hopefully it improves a bit for all but I think it’s narrowing to true solution.

[Ntxw]

Was thinking about getting a hotel booking in Waco and now I saw this run and now I worry about if it will even snow there

It's just one run of the NAM, fluctuations in track and intensity can be expected as well as convective dynamics. I know it's been said before your odds are always better being north of the track/cold with room for error.

Lets see what the RGEM and others say before losing hope down that way!