Texas Winter 2020-2021

[txtwister78]

As someone who has been burned for decades now by “sure thing” model snowstorms, I’m trying one last time to inject a little balance into what has become an echo chamber for you DFW folks. This event (meaning ample snowfall for the Metroplex) is far from certain!

The setup is not simple. It’s complex. We’ll be dealing with an upper level low not fully sampled yet by US weather forecasting tools and the possibility of a coastal trough/low developing. What I have seen happen MANY times in Texas is that the upper low shears out as it crosses the state and transfers energy to the coastal trough/low. What happens then? QPF values further north get robbed of moisture and dreams and visions of multi-inch Metroplex snowfall are crushed. Hell, it wouldn’t surprise me in the least that all we get in Austin is cold rain, the heavy snow falls in West Texas and areas of north central and north Texas see minimal amounts of snow.

For the sake of you snow-starved Metroplexers, I hope you get buried with snow! But I worry about y’all getting so certain of an outcome which I think is far from certain. There’s nothing worse than being certain that Lucy won’t pull the football THIS TIME and then finding yourself on your backside because she did it again. For your mental health sake please try and temper those expectations, friends.

Seems like I've seen this explanation written before somewhere . Great post and completely agree Porta on the coastal low scenario (as shown by GFS and now even the Euro to a degree the last few runs). Very complex situation but one that I think may be trending a bit further south.

[Brent]

If this misses DFW again or we only get a half inch, not sure I will ever be able to trust the models until it's a few hours before. I am concerned that the talk is switching to the surface low likely causing problems from it being a possibility yesterday. Previously it was supposed to help us, not hurt us... The shift in conversation here usually implies bad things.

I'm definitely feeling a little less positive about this setup this morning

Again I just can't help this idea that it always seems to go around Dallas... It hasnt proven me wrong yet

[DonWrk]

Whew, gonna be a tough one to watch for the Red River counties...seen this coming the whole time!

[Haris]

ICON remains consistent since 18z yesterday. Hmm

[rwfromkansas]

With the NAM further south, I'm not feeling it like I was. Something usually goes wrong, so why not this time. Somebody will get a good snow, but probably Abilene as usual. I am hoping the more positive models will prove correct. I just don't know if my love for snow can survive another bust.

[txtwister78]

As someone who has been burned for decades now by “sure thing” model snowstorms, I’m trying one last time to inject a little balance into what has become an echo chamber for you DFW folks. This event (meaning ample snowfall for the Metroplex) is far from certain!

The setup is not simple. It’s complex. We’ll be dealing with an upper level low not fully sampled yet by US weather forecasting tools and the possibility of a coastal trough/low developing. What I have seen happen MANY times in Texas is that the upper low shears out as it crosses the state and transfers energy to the coastal trough/low. What happens then? QPF values further north get robbed of moisture and dreams and visions of multi-inch Metroplex snowfall are crushed. Hell, it wouldn’t surprise me in the least that all we get in Austin is cold rain, the heavy snow falls in West Texas and areas of north central and north Texas see minimal amounts of snow.

For the sake of you snow-starved Metroplexers, I hope you get buried with snow! But I worry about y’all getting so certain of an outcome which I think is far from certain. There’s nothing worse than being certain that Lucy won’t pull the football THIS TIME and then finding yourself on your backside because she did it again. For your mental health sake please try and temper those expectations, friends.

Seems like I've seen this explanation written before somewhere . Great post and completely agree Porta on the coastal low scenario (as shown by GFS and now even the Euro to a degree the last few runs). Very complex situation but one that I think may be trending a bit further south.

I'll add this....there won't be a lot of cold air with this other than what we get from the upper levels (cold pocket of air) and so naturally you're going to want to be where the highest QPF potential sets up with these borderline temp situations. That looks to be a little further south than the metroplex (certainly not along the red river areas). I still believe Waco area points NW and maybe E is the target zone right now (depending on how strong and quick that coastal low develops).

[DonWrk]

ICON remains consistent since 18z yesterday. Hmm

ICON has been so dang consistent on keeping things south and west of DFW. I never thought it did a bad job on the last even by keeping things west and never giving a chance to the east of 35.

[bubba hotep]

If this misses DFW again or we only get a half inch, not sure I will ever be able to trust the models until it's a few hours before. I am concerned that the talk is switching to the surface low likely causing problems from it being a possibility yesterday. Previously it was supposed to help us, not hurt us... The shift in conversation here usually implies bad things.

I'm definitely feeling a little less positive about this setup this morning

Again I just can't help this idea that it always seems to go around Dallas... It hasnt proven me wrong yet

12z trends are ugly for DFW so far lol

[Haris]

Fairly huge bump for snow totals in Austin per the latest GEFS

[Cerlin]

An inch and I’ll be happy.

[Ntxw]

I see 2/3rds of the members here are ready to cliff dive while 1/3rd is excited .

I still would not be in panic mode anywhere from I-20 to Austin which is still the target zone for snow. You're all panicking over not getting 6" of snow..

[TropicalTundra]

[url]https://i.ibb.co/bLSNTtL/GEFSSGP-prec-meansnacc-066.png [/url]


Fairly huge bump for snow totals in Austin per the latest GEFS

Good for us South Texas folks

It seems like this system is already onshore to our west, hopefully this gives us a better view of what to see Sunday on the models.

[Cerlin]

I see 2/3rds of the members here are ready to cliff dive while 1/3rd is excited .

I still would not be in panic mode anywhere from I-20 to Austin which is still the target zone for snow. You're all panicking over not getting 6" of snow..

I think any antithesis to a major snow event spells despair when in actuality, it’s just grounding us. When people say the trends look “ugly”, it’s easy to assume that it means DFW is getting no snow—but it actually means an inch or two projected instead of 11 inches.

Besides, the 12z HRRR is way more north than all the other models (which is to be expected), meaning when it gets into its ideal range, it’ll probably be similar to the SREF. These models will continue to show a range of solutions. The 6z and 12z weren’t great but the 0z looked pretty solid to me. We’ve seen so many north/south/west/east shifts with the models that it’d be foolish to assume any of them is the last wobble, even as we get 48 hours away.

[TheProfessor]

I'd take half an inch of snow right now just for the cold air that comes with it. Today isn't as bad, but yesterday it was almost 80 here in Miami. Too hot.

[Ralph's Weather]

Models are doing their thing shifting around, but nothing change a forecast over. This was always a I-20 and south storm. I-30 and north was always going to struggle to see much. DFW is on the edge where the southern portions could see 6 inches and Denton may not get much of anything. I am on I-20, but in E TX so closer to the low and in better position to take advantage of nighttime snow.

[EnnisTx]

I see 2/3rds of the members here are ready to cliff dive while 1/3rd is excited .

I still would not be in panic mode anywhere from I-20 to Austin which is still the target zone for snow. You're all panicking over not getting 6" of snow..

I have a new prescription for Xanax. I can help 30 members..... Check that 29 members, I need one as well.

[DFW Stormwatcher]

I see 2/3rds of the members here are ready to cliff dive while 1/3rd is excited .

I still would not be in panic mode anywhere from I-20 to Austin which is still the target zone for snow. You're all panicking over not getting 6" of snow..

I was about to post something like this before you posted, thank you ntxw.

I moved to DFW in 2003 from Longview, since I’ve lived here I’ve experienced 10 snow events and multiple ice storms in the city. In the decade prior to that in Longview I experienced one snowfall and one ice storm. Just being able to talk about the chance of winter weather is still a thrill to me, it will snow again in DFW, hopefully that’ll be this weekend, if not I guess we’ll get in the car and drive to where it does snow.

[rwfromkansas]

GEM (think that's the GDPS on Pivotal) is similar to the last run, just a hair south, but nothing major. Still a good amount for DFW. I don't want to jump off the cliff. I would take an inch frankly when the most I have seen in 5 years is a dusting on the roof a few times. That's literally it. Lol.

[Ntxw]

I see 2/3rds of the members here are ready to cliff dive while 1/3rd is excited .

I still would not be in panic mode anywhere from I-20 to Austin which is still the target zone for snow. You're all panicking over not getting 6" of snow..

I was about to post something like this before you posted, thank you ntxw.

I moved to DFW in 2003 from Longview, since I’ve lived here I’ve experienced 10 snow events and multiple ice storms in the city. In the decade prior to that in Longview I experienced one snowfall and one ice storm. Just being able to talk about the chance of winter weather is still a thrill to me, it will snow again in DFW, hopefully that’ll be this weekend, if not I guess we’ll get in the car and drive to where it does snow.

Right! The trend this morning qpf was not ideal for the northeastern corner of the state but it's not showing zero snow either. It will snow this weekend and end the DFW snow drought, if you look at the early onset alone there will be strong convection but where it continues is who gets the most.

[EnnisTx]

This site is so addictive during possible winter weather events. I'm sitting here trying to work and literally feel like a kid waiting outside the Principal's office.