Texas Winter 2020-2021

[txtwister78]

UKMET definitely has a southward trend also. Still keeps 2-3 inch totals across the Metroplex but much higher totals south near Waco points NW and E. Brings snow further south.

[cheezyWXguy]

I don’t completely buy that the outcome is set in stone, positive or negative. The evolution of the system as it transits Texas is still varying sufficiently from model to model, run to run, to result in different outcomes. 12z gfs bends around in a flattened U-shape, giving a bit more to NE Texas, while the NAM is a little further north with a straight ene transit. Latitude of transit and strength of the system is still varying a bit as well, and this doesn’t even take into account the small factors like convective banding. As much as I long for a shoe-in, I think we’re going to keep guessing until tomorrow night

[gpsnowman]

UKMET definitely has a southward trend also. Still keeps 2-3 inch totals across the Metroplex but much higher totals south near Waco points NW and E. Brings snow further south.

Shoot that is all I need. It would be great to have a Feb 2010 repeat though that seems unlikely. But then again Feb 2010 was unlikely as well. It would be nice if everyone got a piece of this storm. It's a doozy.

[txtwister78]

UKMET definitely has a southward trend also. Still keeps 2-3 inch totals across the Metroplex but much higher totals south near Waco points NW and E. Brings snow further south.

Shoot that is all I need. It would be great to have a Feb 2010 repeat though that seems unlikely. But then again Feb 2010 was unlikely as well. It would be nice if everyone got a piece of this storm. It's a doozy.

I think all of us have come to expect this with winter weather systems (heck even 24 hours out) down in Texas. So many variables at play. There always exist some "surprise" that models didn't see (mostly globals) right up until the event. As mentioned above often times it's a radar watching trend in order to really find out which model verified. I think the odds are still good that everyone (West Central, Panhandle, North Central and Central Texas members) gets some snow out of this. I just believe that the higher QPF will be further west and particularly south of the Metroplex and in those scenarios often times that "snow line" will push further south as a result of the colder air that rides along the heavier precip and so all I'm saying is I would rather be further south (Waco general area NW and perhaps E) than north in terms of higher totals unless of course something drastic changes with overall track between now and Sunday.

[Brent]

okay maybe if I start talking about chasing this will trend better for DFW

Didn't work for Abilene though

[rwfromkansas]

Updated info. Not liking the probabilities approach they are doing here, but I would think that low probability areas still may see small accumulations like the models show.

Man, this imgur thing takes a long time to do. Why the heck isn't it showing the graphic? Anyway, go to the FWD FB page I guess since the link doesn't work. It says DFW has a low probability of any accumulations.

[imgur]<blockquote class="imgur-embed-pub" lang="en" data-id="a/ojY2IQF" ><a href="//imgur.com/a/ojY2IQF">DFW updated snow....</a></blockquote><script async src="//s.imgur.com/min/embed.js" charset="utf-8"></script>[/imgur]

[Cerlin]

The lesser known RAP model (15z) and the TTU model actually both look somewhat positive for DFW with high rates of QPF

[EnnisTx]

Special Weather Statement National Weather Service Fort Worth TX 1119 AM CST Fri Jan 8 2021 TXZ091>095-100>107-115>123-129>135-141>148-156>162-174-175-081930- Montague-Cooke-Grayson-Fannin-Lamar-Young-Jack-Wise-Denton-Collin- Hunt-Delta-Hopkins-Stephens-Palo Pinto-Parker-Tarrant-Dallas- Rockwall-Kaufman-Van Zandt-Rains-Eastland-Erath-Hood-Somervell- Johnson-Ellis-Henderson-Comanche-Mills-Hamilton-Bosque-Hill- Navarro-Freestone-Anderson-Lampasas-Coryell-Bell-McLennan-Falls- Limestone-Leon-Milam-Robertson- Including the cities of Bowie, Nocona, Gainesville, Sherman, Denison, Bonham, Paris, Graham, Olney, Jacksboro, Decatur, Bridgeport, Carrollton, Denton, Lewisville, Flower Mound, Plano, McKinney, Allen, Frisco, Greenville, Commerce, Cooper, Sulphur Springs, Breckenridge, Mineral Wells, Weatherford, Briar, Fort Worth, Arlington, Dallas, Rockwall, Heath, Terrell, Kaufman, Forney, Canton, Grand Saline, Wills Point, Van, Edgewood, Emory, East Tawakoni, Point, Cisco, Eastland, Ranger, Gorman, Stephenville, Dublin, Granbury, Oak Trail Shores, Glen Rose, Cleburne, Burleson, Waxahachie, Ennis, Midlothian, Athens, Gun Barrel City, Comanche, De Leon, Goldthwaite, Hamilton, Hico, Clifton, Meridian, Valley Mills, Hillsboro, Corsicana, Teague, Fairfield, Wortham, Palestine, Lampasas, Copperas Cove, Gatesville, Killeen, Temple, Fort Hood, Waco, Marlin, Mexia, Groesbeck, Buffalo, Centerville, Jewett, Normangee, Oakwood, Cameron, Rockdale, Hearne, Franklin, and Calvert 1119 AM CST Fri Jan 8 2021 ...WINTER WEATHER OUTLOOK... * WHAT...Snow possible this weekend. * WHEN...Late Saturday through Sunday night. * WHERE...Much of North and Central Texas. * IMPACTS...Travel will be impacted where accumulations occur. The best chances for measurable snowfall greater than 4 inches will be west of the U.S. Highway 281 corridor. Accumulating snowfall of up to 3 inches will be possible elsewhere. Travel impacts may linger into Monday morning for areas that receive the heaviest snowfall. * ADDITIONAL INFORMATION...There is still considerable uncertainty regarding where and how much snow will accumulate. More details will become clear in the coming days, so check back for forecast updates for your area. $$ Bain/Garcia

[DonWrk]

Wow that graphic is depressing!

[orangeblood]

UKMET definitely has a southward trend also. Still keeps 2-3 inch totals across the Metroplex but much higher totals south near Waco points NW and E. Brings snow further south.

Shoot that is all I need. It would be great to have a Feb 2010 repeat though that seems unlikely. But then again Feb 2010 was unlikely as well. It would be nice if everyone got a piece of this storm. It's a doozy.

I think all of us have come to expect this with winter weather systems (heck even 24 hours out) down in Texas. So many variables at play. There always exist some "surprise" that models didn't see (mostly globals) right up until the event. As mentioned above often times it's a radar watching trend in order to really find out which model verified. I think the odds are still good that everyone (West Central, Panhandle, North Central and Central Texas members) gets some snow out of this. I just believe that the higher QPF will be further west and particularly south of the Metroplex and in those scenarios often times that "snow line" will push further south as a result of the colder air that rides along the heavier precip and so all I'm saying is I would rather be further south (Waco general area NW and perhaps E) than north in terms of higher totals unless of course something drastic changes with overall track between now and Sunday.

Considering a 3-6 inch storm is probably once a decade around this area, IMO we need to enjoy the ride and not get greedy about being in bullseye. Models haven't changed much with core axis being south of DFW but short range hi res models are on the northern extent of the Globals. Still in 36-48 hr window so shifts of 30-60 miles aren't out of question

[Brent]

Well the Euro didn't really get any worse for DFW

[bubba hotep]

Matches up pretty well with the model trends so far this morning.

[txtwister78]

Matches up pretty well with the model trends so far this morning.

https://i.ibb.co/28jC1d0/IMG-20210108-121908.jpg

I think that's probably accurate based on trends and earlier discussion. Perhaps I wouldn't have gone that far just yet regarding no accumulation for DFW but the trends are not good (especially just north of the Metro).

[Texas Snow]

Updated info. Not liking the probabilities approach they are doing here, but I would think that low probability areas still may see small accumulations like the models show.

Man, this imgur thing takes a long time to do. Why the heck isn't it showing the graphic? Anyway, go to the FWD FB page I guess since the link doesn't work. It says DFW has a low probability of any accumulations.

[url]<blockquote class="imgur-embed-pub" lang="en" data-id="a/ojY2IQF" ><a href="//imgur.com/a/ojY2IQF">DFW updated snow....</a></blockquote><script async src="//s.imgur.com/min/embed.js" charset="utf-8"></script>[/url]

It needs to look something like this, but use [ ] instead of { } ---> if I did it right it would try to display something rather than show you the nomenclature

{img}http://www.image.com/photoname.jpg{/img}

2 things I notice about yours is you put "imgur" instead of "img" and also you are trying to insert something that is java rather than just a photo file type like PNG, JPG, GIF. It needs to end in one of those 3 letter type file types right before the {/img}

maybe try this one and preview so you can see if you've got it down, just use [ ]

{http://getwallpapers.com/wallpaper/full/2/d/a/126628.jpg}

[HockeyTx82]

Gentlemen it's been an honor and a pleasure. I think I'm going to stay off this thread until Sunday. My stomach can't take it anymore. Appreciate everyone's contributions.

Being just west of Denton.......... *sign off static*

[Ralph's Weather]

Matches up pretty well with the model trends so far this morning.

https://i.ibb.co/28jC1d0/IMG-20210108-121908.jpg

I think that's probably accurate based on trends and earlier discussion. Perhaps I wouldn't have gone that far just yet regarding no accumulation for DFW but the trends are not good (especially just north of the Metro).

They sure seem to be hugging the GFS. Other models show some accumulations for DFW.
DFW seems to be just on top of the U shaped curve on the models the curve. It wouldn't take much north shift to bring DFW back into the core though DFW can't afford much of any south shifts.

[Lagreeneyes03]

Matches up pretty well with the model trends so far this morning.

https://i.ibb.co/28jC1d0/IMG-20210108-121908.jpg

I think that's probably accurate based on trends and earlier discussion. Perhaps I wouldn't have gone that far just yet regarding no accumulation for DFW but the trends are not good (especially just north of the Metro).

They sure seem to be hugging the GFS. Other models show some accumulations for DFW.
DFW seems to be just on top of the U shaped curve on the models the curve. It wouldn't take much north shift to bring DFW back into the core though DFW can't afford much of any south shifts.

Why the U shape right over DFW?

[Haris]

It’s gonna snow. Don’t worry. I’ll be grateful for an inch. If I was Dallas, I’d be as grateful for 1” too.

[TropicalTundra]

It’s gonna snow. Don’t worry. I’ll be grateful for an inch. If I was Dallas, I’d be as grateful for 1” too.

Will it stick? Especially since temps look like they stay in the upper to mid 30's Sunday.

[txtwister78]

Matches up pretty well with the model trends so far this morning.

https://i.ibb.co/28jC1d0/IMG-20210108-121908.jpg

I think that's probably accurate based on trends and earlier discussion. Perhaps I wouldn't have gone that far just yet regarding no accumulation for DFW but the trends are not good (especially just north of the Metro).

They sure seem to be hugging the GFS. Other models show some accumulations for DFW.
DFW seems to be just on top of the U shaped curve on the models the curve. It wouldn't take much north shift to bring DFW back into the core though DFW can't afford much of any south shifts.

Yeah obviously I can't speak for them, but it's clear based on their data they are relying on a higher QPF axis being W, SW and potentially S of the Metroplex. With the cold air in place at the upper levels it's easy to see where the higher snowfall totals are going to be should the heavier precip line up with what models are indicating right now.

As for the graphic showing "lower chance of accumulating snow" in the Metro, as I mentioned earlier, I'm not sure I would go there just yet (not that anything I say is official of course anyway), however the trends are definitely coming down on precip amounts from DFW points northward and so you have to factor that in if you're them along with what I discussed earlier regarding the higher QPF being further south and the tendency for that to want to be pushed further south and east with the track of the colder pocket of air from the system. A track change could still change things but as we get closer to the event, the models will begin to lock in on a solution with our attention being turned to amounts.

Edit: All in all, I'd rather be in the Lubbock to Abilene to Waco area right now in terms of a higher confidence than further north. Doesn't mean no snow, but odds are just better overall right now across that stretch.