Texas Winter 2020-2021

[DonWrk]

HRRR renews some hope?!

Edit: looks so much better vs the trend for today

[Cerlin]

HRRR renews some hope?!

Edit: looks so much better vs the trend for today

HRRR in the longer range (every 6 hours) tends to have a slight northern bias from what I’ve seen but it’s at least promising!

[Captmorg70]

HRRR renews some hope?!

Edit: looks so much better vs the trend for today

I feel like it’s a dangerous game hoping the extended HRRR is showing a new trend.

The storm should be sampled now and especially by the 00z runs tonight. So it will be interesting to see what the 18z and 00z runs look like.

[bubba hotep]

Not too shabby but it is at the end of the run.

[Ntxw]

HRRR renews some hope?!

Edit: looks so much better vs the trend for today

I feel like it’s a dangerous game hoping the extended HRRR is showing a new trend.

The storm should be sampled now and especially by the 00z runs tonight. So it will be interesting to see what the 18z and 00z runs look like.

I would not say HRRR is a trend. It's pretty on par with the initial band of snow that moves through early in the game from all the models, Sunday morning period is going to snow in DFW. The question is after does it continue to snow or the qpf shift southward for bigger totals.

[txtwister78]

Not too shabby but it is at the end of the run.

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/hrrr/2021010818/hrrr_ref_frzn_scus_48.png

Yeah I would definitely caution against using the HRRR as a reliable tool longer than 18 hours out (even that is subject to change). Very suspect. Just my .02 folks.

[Ralph's Weather]

HRRR is much faster than other models (by 6 or so hours), it clearly showing the banding nature of this event.

[Captmorg70]

HRRR renews some hope?!

Edit: looks so much better vs the trend for today

I feel like it’s a dangerous game hoping the extended HRRR is showing a new trend.

The storm should be sampled now and especially by the 00z runs tonight. So it will be interesting to see what the 18z and 00z runs look like.

I would not say HRRR is a trend. It's pretty on par with the initial band of snow that moves through early in the game from all the models, Sunday morning period is going to snow in DFW. The question is after does it continue to snow or the qpf shift southward for bigger totals.

100% agree. I don’t believe you could ever call one model run a trend. Also, I feel the HRRR looks nice but hr 48 of the HRRR is probably unreliable.

[Cerlin]

HRRR isn’t the best at placement for storms but it always nails the banding nature of winter storms like this. I think this is a real boom or bust scenario for DFW. Places might see less than an inch. Or they’ll see more than 4 inches. Realistically, I don’t think you can rule either out but both are probably more likely than an inch or two of snow.

[Haris]

NAMd

[bubba hotep]

HRRR is much faster than other models (by 6 or so hours), it clearly showing the banding nature of this event.

Did someone say banding?

[Ntxw]

I say we take the 18z NAM and call it a day. Everyone wins!

[Cerlin]

NAM dumps 5-8 inches for most of the metroplex, and (if i have my counties right) a sharp gradient for Austin from 3 inches to nearly a foot.

[txtwister78]

NAM 3K definitely likes Waco area with this run. Some good convective precip potential leading to heavier amounts. Much less further north (but still an inch or 2 for DFW). Even our friends down near Austin get in on the action. Hope for all still.

[Ntxw]

NAM dumps 5-8 inches for most of the metroplex, and (if i have my counties right) a sharp gradient for Austin from 3 inches to nearly a foot.

The trowal feature disappeared the past few runs but is back, at least for this run with the passing ULL overhead.

[Haris]

Highest totals *IFF* they verify since 1988

[Wthrlvrmom]

Winter storm watch issued for us here in Parker County. I’m Aledo.

[txtwister78]

EWX just issued a winter storm watch for areas just north of Austin.

FWD has issued a watch but does not include the Metroplex at this time.

[bubba hotep]

NAM dumps 5-8 inches for most of the metroplex, and (if i have my counties right) a sharp gradient for Austin from 3 inches to nearly a foot.

The trowal feature disappeared the past few runs but is back, at least for this run with the passing ULL overhead.

That and convection isn't as intense with the coastal low. Any delay in the transfer to the coastal or a weakening trend with the coastal plays a big role in the modulation of qpf totals up north. Minor but encouraging trends so far at 18z. Still think we could see some curve balls at 00z as the afternoon balloons from the NW are assimilated into the 00z cycle.

[Brent]