#1345 Postby Brent » Fri Jan 08, 2021 4:56 pm
Forecast models suggest that most likely
corridor for heavy snow will be from the Big Country to Central
Texas, near a line from Eastland to Stephenville to Waco. These
locations may receive 2-4 inches of snow, with locally higher
amounts of up to 6 inches possible in some locations. Given the
steep lapse rates and strong ascent within the dendritic growth
zone, the potential for heavy banding snow will be likely, but
given the mesoscale nature of these types of bands, it is nearly
impossible to forecast with great confidence where these may occur
at this lead time.
The difficult decision to exclude the core of the Dallas/Fort
Worth Metropolitan Area was made with this forecast for a few
reasons. First, the deterministic snowfall forecast as well as
probabilistic guidance shows that the DFW area is likely to
remain below warning criteria. Secondly, there is still at least
36-48 hours before any potential snow onset in the Metroplex.
While the current forecast would potentially require an Advisory
if it were within 24 hours, we opted to hold off on the issuance
of a Watch at this time. Forecast users are strongly advised
,however, that a northward shift of about 30-40 miles in the
track of the forecast low and therefore the heaviest snowfall
amounts could place DFW within heavier snow. It is therefore
encouraged that folks across North Texas make any necessary
preparations for the potential for accumulating snowfall as
possibility certainly exists, even if it is not a strong
probability at this time.
Last edited by
Brent on Fri Jan 08, 2021 5:01 pm, edited 2 times in total.
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