Texas Winter 2020-2021

[Ntxw]

Who's going on record? Do we see the north & west shift in qpf placement over the next 24 hrs that has been the trend in models here the past few months?

Both can be right! Strong ULL snow? Sure..strong convective snow in the south? Sure! Why not!

Friendly reminder to keep it civil. Progressive discussion is encouraged.

For our readers posts of preferred models are just that, we all are also human and tend to pick the models we like . Please follow forecasts from your local NWS.

[Brent]

Who's going on record? Do we see the north & west shift in qpf placement over the next 24 hrs that has been the trend in models here the past few months?

I mean it would make sense but again DFW has been so unlucky I want to believe but I'm on the fence lol

[Cerlin]

Not so sure when you say "great skill" at this range? We are now inside 48 hours. Again these are two models out of several, but the development of a coastal low would limit snowfall potential further north because it would become the more dominant feature and create a quicker dry slotting effect of the atmosphere on the backside of said low and pull more moisture closer to the low itself. Do I think it's a lock to happen? No. But to suggest the possibility doesn't exist would not be accurate either. I think that's why FWD has been a little more reluctant to go "all in" on accumulating snowfall for the Metroplex and points north.

The coastal low is in place on every model regardless and appears to be of similar strength, don't think that's the deciding issue here...it's the strength and trajectory of the ULL that appears to be in dispute. NAM further north and stronger - closed low , ICON weakest of all and comes in as more of an open wave. Moisture is there, its strength and location of lift that appears to be the biggest question mark

Read Portastorms post this morning. It's something I mentioned yesterday on here as well. Again I get all of us "want" snow in our own backyard, but all I'm doing is discussing possibilities and as of right now (at least) the FWD agrees with that in terms of lower probability of accumulating snow the further north and NE you go into the Metroplex. The models are the models. We can all agree that this is still a wait and see scenario. My opinions are just that. Don't let it bother you.

I’ve been on this forum a while—orangeblood doesn’t get bothered by that stuff

I think he’s just saying that the coastal low is not playing as big of a role as you think and that it has more to do with the strength and speed of the ULL, and that the high res models will always have a better handle because we are in their preferred range, where the GFS operates best from 5-10 days. Not that the FWD is wrong or that discussing errors is wrong.

[DFW Stormwatcher]

18z GFS continues to miss DFW altogether (maybe a dusting). Really develops coastal low in the gulf and scours out moisture across N Texas. Been very consistent along with the ICON regarding this.

Why put so much weight into Global models that don't have great skill scores at this range ?

Not so sure when you say "great skill" at this range? We are now inside 48 hours. Again these are two models out of several, but the development of a coastal low would limit snowfall potential further north because it would become the more dominant feature and create a quicker dry slotting effect of the atmosphere on the backside of said low and pull more moisture closer to the low itself. Do I think it's a lock to happen? No. But to suggest the possibility doesn't exist would not be accurate either. I think that's why FWD has been a little more reluctant to go "all in" on accumulating snowfall for the Metroplex and points north.

I also think it's why forecast offices have been more conservative on snowfall totals. Obviously the more prudent thing to do until we closer to the event and one of these solutions begins to lock on.

Fwd has always been conservative on snowfall totals for good reason. Every multi-inch snowfall I’ve seen here starts with either no accumulations or an inch at least as far as nws wording. Them the prevalent third option...cold rain

Comparatively, fwd is being rather aggressive this go around.

[TheProfessor]

Who's going on record? Do we see the north & west shift in qpf placement over the next 24 hrs that has been the trend in models here the past few months?

The trend has definitely been for north and west corrections this year, but here's the kicker, whenever a northwest trend benefits you, it won't happen. When a northwest trend screws you, it will happen. Had happen to me fairly often in Ohio

[Cpv17]

Looks like a lot of the cold could be sliding to our east over the next couple weeks. Hopefully the models are wrong and trend back west.

[cheezyWXguy]

NAM is going towards what the SREF members have been saying for several runs now...this is very reminiscent of Feb 2010 with almost every Global doing their exact same shenanigans. There's a lot of moving parts that these globals are having a difficult time with.

18Z NAM
https://images.weatherbell.com/model/nam-218-all/tx/total_snow_10to1/1610128800/1610409600-wmbtv98DVh4.png

Where did this come from? TT and pivotal weather don’t look as generous for this run, unless I’m missing something.

Edit, I guess the url answers that question, but why the discrepancy between weatherbell and the others?

[EnnisTx]

Who's going on record? Do we see the north & west shift in qpf placement over the next 24 hrs that has been the trend in models here the past few months?

The trend has definitely been for north and west corrections this year, but here's the kicker, whenever a northwest trend benefits you, it won't happen. When a northwest trend screws you, it will happen. Had happen to me fairly often in Ohio

Good read! For a moment there I thought you were talking about my ex wife.......

[txtwister78]

The coastal low is in place on every model regardless and appears to be of similar strength, don't think that's the deciding issue here...it's the strength and trajectory of the ULL that appears to be in dispute. NAM further north and stronger - closed low , ICON weakest of all and comes in as more of an open wave. Moisture is there, its strength and location of lift that appears to be the biggest question mark

Read Portastorms post this morning. It's something I mentioned yesterday on here as well. Again I get all of us "want" snow in our own backyard, but all I'm doing is discussing possibilities and as of right now (at least) the FWD agrees with that in terms of lower probability of accumulating snow the further north and NE you go into the Metroplex. The models are the models. We can all agree that this is still a wait and see scenario. My opinions are just that. Don't let it bother you.

I’ve been on this forum a while—orangeblood doesn’t get bothered by that stuff

I think he’s just saying that the coastal low is not playing as big of a role as you think and that it has more to do with the strength and speed of the ULL, and that the high res models will always have a better handle because we are in their preferred range, where the GFS operates best from 5-10 days. Not that the FWD is wrong or that discussing errors is wrong.

Fair enough. Again...I was the one asked about why I was solely relying on the ICON and GFS and all I did was post my opinion on them. Never said anything about them being a lock. You can agree or disagree with it and that's fine. I enjoy reading everyone's opinion on here. Great forum.

[TropicalTundra]

Going to go ahead and log off until Sunday, I need a little break. Super excited to see if any flakes will fall. Hoping DFW get their deserved snowflakes. Bye all.

[TeamPlayersBlue]

I know some random models are hinting it already, but somebody could get a foot somewhere. Pretty exciting. I'll take an inch down here but we need some help.

For us south of I-10, looks like the warm nose from the 850 low is going to rob most of the fun. Once the low at 850 moves east, we may have cooler temps alof for flakes to fall. Till then, temps above us will be too warm

I'll be tracking this bad boy with the rest of you on Sunday. I think we will have more fun during this winter, if we can continue to have blocking near Greenland.

[bubba hotep]

Who's going on record? Do we see the north & west shift in qpf placement over the next 24 hrs that has been the trend in models here the past few months?

The trend has definitely been for north and west corrections this year, but here's the kicker, whenever a northwest trend benefits you, it won't happen. When a northwest trend screws you, it will happen. Had happen to me fairly often in Ohio

Weenie 101! Yes, much experience with that on the East Coast lol

[SouthernMet]

The coastal low is in place on every model regardless and appears to be of similar strength, don't think that's the deciding issue here...it's the strength and trajectory of the ULL that appears to be in dispute. NAM further north and stronger - closed low , ICON weakest of all and comes in as more of an open wave. Moisture is there, its strength and location of lift that appears to be the biggest question mark

Read Portastorms post this morning. It's something I mentioned yesterday on here as well. Again I get all of us "want" snow in our own backyard, but all I'm doing is discussing possibilities and as of right now (at least) the FWD agrees with that in terms of lower probability of accumulating snow the further north and NE you go into the Metroplex. The models are the models. We can all agree that this is still a wait and see scenario. My opinions are just that. Don't let it bother you.

I’ve been on this forum a while—orangeblood doesn’t get bothered by that stuff

I think he’s just saying that the coastal low is not playing as big of a role as you think and that it has more to do with the strength and speed of the ULL, and that the high res models will always have a better handle because we are in their preferred range, where the GFS operates best from 5-10 days. Not that the FWD is wrong or that discussing errors is wrong.

100%

[SouthernMet]

Read Portastorms post this morning. It's something I mentioned yesterday on here as well. Again I get all of us "want" snow in our own backyard, but all I'm doing is discussing possibilities and as of right now (at least) the FWD agrees with that in terms of lower probability of accumulating snow the further north and NE you go into the Metroplex. The models are the models. We can all agree that this is still a wait and see scenario. My opinions are just that. Don't let it bother you.

I’ve been on this forum a while—orangeblood doesn’t get bothered by that stuff

I think he’s just saying that the coastal low is not playing as big of a role as you think and that it has more to do with the strength and speed of the ULL, and that the high res models will always have a better handle because we are in their preferred range, where the GFS operates best from 5-10 days. Not that the FWD is wrong or that discussing errors is wrong.

Fair enough. Again...I was the one asked about why I was solely relying on the ICON and GFS and all I did was post my opinion on them. Never said anything about them being a lock. You can agree or disagree with it and that's fine. I enjoy reading everyone's opinion on here. Great forum.

Have you seen the GFS-P, the upgraded GFS..?

[TeamPlayersBlue]

Anyone have a good website for archived 500 mb charts? The one i used is no longer active. Thanks in advance!

[bubba hotep]

Anyone have a good website for archived 500 mb charts? The one i used is no longer active. Thanks in advance!

Used to be able to access them through PSU eWall. I use the PSL sites.

[fendie]

18Z 3km NAM depicts the heaviest snowfall totals between the major metropolitan areas of Texas leaving the big cities on the fringes. Sure seems like models are coming to a pretty good agreement on this area for the highest totals. Most of us will be happy to have a dusting or even just see a few flakes fall.

For me personally it helps seeing pictures and knowing someone not far away experienced a once or twice in a lifetime meteorological event. Sure would be nice to see a dusting here in Austin though.

We will see what the 0Z models show with better upper atmosphere data from the balloons launched this afternoon. I don’t expect a big shift in the zone of 3+ inch of snow, however. Beyond that we won’t know until the snow starts falling what locations will be under the heaviest bands. Exciting 48 hours ahead!

[Texas Snow]

Wow this is a depressing chart and even the best case (they call it worst case scenario) for most of us isn’t what we hope for or what many scenarios show for a dream scenario. A lot can change but they ain’t buying it currently

[Brent]

Wow this is a depressing chart and even the best case (they call it worst case scenario) for most of us isn’t what we hope for or what many scenarios show for a dream scenario. A lot can change but they ain’t buying it currently

https://www.weather.gov/images/fwd/graphicast/image2.jpg

The worst case scenario is 2 inches for Dallas? I don't want to bash but what???

[cheezyWXguy]

Wow this is a depressing chart and even the best case (they call it worst case scenario) for most of us isn’t what we hope for or what many scenarios show for a dream scenario. A lot can change but they ain’t buying it currently

https://www.weather.gov/images/fwd/graphicast/image2.jpg

That graphic will either age like wine or milk, I don’t see much in between