Texas Winter 2020-2021

[Brent]

0z Euro I continue to be annoyed by the cutoff in northern and eastern DFW

[Cerlin]

00z Euro stays about the same as the 18z which is expected given we’re out of its range. I don’t get how the snow is supposed to change back over into rain because not one high resolution model is calling for anything similar.

[Brent]

00z Euro stays about the same as the 18z which is expected given we’re out of its range. I don’t get how the snow is supposed to change back over into rain because not one high resolution model is calling for anything similar.

I don't see how it changes back to rain either... Thats my whole issue with the globals... I can buy it's too dry but still even then eventually there's gonna be precip and well at least when I was a kid evaporative cooling drops temps doesn't raise them

[Ntxw]

00z Euro stays about the same as the 18z which is expected given we’re out of its range. I don’t get how the snow is supposed to change back over into rain because not one high resolution model is calling for anything similar.

I don't see how it changes back to rain either... Thats my whole issue with the globals... I can buy it's too dry but still even then eventually there's gonna be precip and well evaporative cooling drops temps doesn't raise them

In fact, the Euro doesn't have any snow for much of anyone over I-35 north or south. The totals are sleet grade.

[Cerlin]

00z Euro stays about the same as the 18z which is expected given we’re out of its range. I don’t get how the snow is supposed to change back over into rain because not one high resolution model is calling for anything similar.

I don't see how it changes back to rain either... Thats my whole issue with the globals... I can buy it's too dry but still even then eventually there's gonna be precip and well evaporative cooling drops temps doesn't raise them

Yeah, I think it mainly deals with the inability of global models to firmly grasp snow rates. The Euro nor the GFS has the fine tune ability to show thermal cooling like what is expected for DFW. I still think eastern DFW will likely see much less than western/southern DFW, but I think it’s highly improbable for a change back over into rain.

[Lagreeneyes03]

0z Euro I continue to be annoyed by the cutoff in northern and eastern DFW

https://i.ibb.co/PM2Z2m4/sn10-acc-us-sc-28.png

It makes zero sense to me. Especially the models that basically have a "U" shape over the dfw Metro. Snow to the West, East and South.

[TXdaddy217]

https://m2.pivotalweather.com/maps/models/ukmet/2021010900/048/sn10_acc.us_sc.png

Pretty good jump south from 0Z UKMET

Nice Map. Welcome to Storm2K

[txtwister78]

Pretty good model (Texas Tech WRF) that I mostly use during severe weather season but definitely seeing a further south trend with this latest run as well.

[Brent]

0z Euro I continue to be annoyed by the cutoff in northern and eastern DFW

https://i.ibb.co/PM2Z2m4/sn10-acc-us-sc-28.png

It makes zero sense to me. Especially the models that basically have a "U" shape over the dfw Metro. Snow to the West, East and South.

I mean I sort of get that with the low track maybe but I'm not understanding where this rain is coming from

This is from the watch area in Palestine... It goes back to rain/snow after being all snow Sunday Night for hours on the colder side of the system? Makes zero sense to me lol things don't work this way

Sunday Night
Snow likely before midnight, then a chance of rain and snow. Cloudy, with a low around 33. North wind around 5 mph. Chance of precipitation is 70%.

[txtwister78]

Euro ENS inching southward again from previous 18z run

[Cerlin]

https://images.weatherbell.com/model/ecmwf-ensemble-avg/tx/total_snow_10to1/1610150400/1610409600-abFsu2y264M.png

Euro ENS inching southward again from previous 18z run

Seems to be slightly more QPF too which is a good thing for all of Texas!

[Cerlin]

Most of the ensembles are actually showing some higher snowfall totals.

00z GEFS


compared to

18z GEFS


This is good because it makes it both a North and South shift (with Austin and DFW both seeing more snowfall).

[Brent]

The long range HRRR still looks amazing for DFW also note the only rain is at the very beginning which looks a lot more realistic

[TropicalTundra]

Super suspicious how TWC app changes their snow forecast from 1-3 inches to 3-5 inches of snow in Temple.

[SouthernMet]

The HRRR without a doubt handles mesoscale convective banding very well, if not the best. Obviously this won't be locked in on exact placement until atleast tomorrow night, but currently I'm inclined to think it has the best handle on accumulations.

With that being said - the latest 6z HRRR is showing 8-9" for DFW. An initial band of heavy snow, with a sustained shield of light snow on the backside.
Latest SREF is extremely bullish with 9-11" for tarrant and dallas counties.
6z NAM is screaming feb 2010 with 10" for tarrant and dallas counties.

Ladies and gentlemen I'm ringing the alarm bells this is a legit setup. Temp profiles, QPF, convective banding all the ingredients are there for a potent major winter storm in north and central tx... This is not something we see often in this region.

Also a potential reality check, these snowfall accumulation maps are a starting point, you can't take them for gospel. Sometimes they overperform and sometimes they underperform. These particular amounts don't account for melting and they are at an assumed 10:1 ratio, which we aren't guaranteed to have especially if temps are above freezing.

[Ralph's Weather]

The hi-res models are all looking amazing for DFW and NE TX. It's time to discount the globals and even the NAM is borderline this late in the game. Globals have I-20 with around 1/3 inch of QPF while HRRR and RAP are nearing an inch and the events not over at the end of their runs. That's a difference of 1 to 2 inches of snow vs 6 plus inches of snow.

[Tammie]

The hi-res models are all looking amazing for DFW and NE TX. It's time to discount the globals and even the NAM is borderline this late in the game. Globals have I-20 with around 1/3 inch of QPF while HRRR and RAP are nearing an inch and the events not over at the end of their runs. That's a difference of 1 to 2 inches of snow vs 6 plus inches of snow.

https://imgur.com/zAbfPP6

We’re in Sherman. It doesn’t look like anything is improving our snow chances. Is that an accurate statement?

[Ralph's Weather]

The hi-res models are all looking amazing for DFW and NE TX. It's time to discount the globals and even the NAM is borderline this late in the game. Globals have I-20 with around 1/3 inch of QPF while HRRR and RAP are nearing an inch and the events not over at the end of their runs. That's a difference of 1 to 2 inches of snow vs 6 plus inches of snow.

https://imgur.com/zAbfPP6

We’re in Sherman. It doesn’t look like anything is improving our snow chances. Is that an accurate statement?

Hi-Res models do give you around 3 inches but only an inch across the Red River into OK so the margin is razor thin, other models just give you a dusting. I am calling for up to 1" for your area.

[BrokenGlass]

Nothing like heading into one of these events with a good, old fashioned low bust...


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[WacoWx]

I blame TxDot for treating the roads if DFW doesn’t see accumulating snows.