VERY interesting scenario maybe unfolding ...

[Stormsfury]

Yes, a very interesting scenario ... Given a very unusual warm spell going on in the Eastern US and an unusually strong November SE'rn ridge and a NEG MJO pattern in the East ATL ... however the scenario is NOT about the Caribbean ...

Surprise ... anyone notice the large ridge/trough/ridge triplet extending from the Eastern US into the Eastern ATL lately??? I have ... and coupled with fairly light shear pattern east of 50ºW, and south of 20ºN ... well, if anything ... very interesting ...



Last 24 hour WV imagery loop ...
http://orca.rsmas.miami.edu/wximages/jet/1_05/anis.html

Loops below ...
GFS 12z 950mb vorticity ....
http://met.psu.edu/trop-cgi/avntc2.cgi? ... =Animation

CMC 00z 950mb vorticity ... (12z doesn't run out far enough to demonstrate)
http://met.psu.edu/trop-cgi/cmctc2.cgi? ... =Animation

Unfortunately, NOGAPS and UKMET on the PSU site haven't updated in a couple of days ... however, the NOGAPS puts a favorable Bermuda-Like High in the Central ATL left in the wake of a powerful oceanic storm in the Northeast ATL ... Basically, the globals suggest a strong ridge in the Central Atlantic with flat ridging in the Southeastern States ... though, the system of interest that the globals are wanting to spin up doesn't look like a threat to the US, it's something QUITE interesting for so late in the season.

Tonight's EURO on Day 7 has a closed low (1014mb) sliding in between a weakness between the two areas of high pressure...

EURO Day 7 Northern Hemisphere


EURO N. Hemisphere Loop.
http://www.stormsfury1.com/Weather/Models/EUROLoop.html

And the 110403 CMC ensemble members suggest such a possibility with a couple. The most bullish ens members - with quite an impressive system is BTW, CMC4 (Day 8-10 depiction is NOT from the system I'm talking about currently - that's a different matter altogether).

110403 00z CMC Ensemble Members ..
http://www.stormsfury1.com/Weather/Mode ... mbles.html

[RNS]

SF...I havent been monitoring the tropics as closely as i should be...but i can offer this...as long as that ridge is sitting out there...and with the still rather warm ocean temps across the entire atlantic basin, the area will be a breeding ground for late season TC activity.

and...

it would not even be all the inconcevible to mess around with the possibility of NOV version of olga just in a different spot.

in general though...things look very favorable for late season development.

also...the more we increase these TC numbers the stronger the TFF factor becomes in regard to the atlantic signals vs the paciifc signal which we discussed a few days ago.

[RNS]

that EC solution plays right into my thinking prefectly.

also...remember how yesterday the GGEM was trying to phase soem sort of hybrid or sub-tropical storm with a mid-latitude system in the northwest atlantic creating another "perfect storm" type situation.

while its IMO unlikely...it was very interesting to see.

[RNS]

furthermore...the lastest SST analysis off the navy site showed considerable cooling of the SSTA/s from the west coast of europe to the azores which is a signal for a -NAO. also it is interesting how the EC continues to cut most low presure systems off to the south of greenland instead of just bombing them northward toeward the southern tip of greenland and iceland.

w/ solar activity decreasing this is very promising for a negative NAO...which could telegraph another development pulse for later in the month or the very early part of december...providing that the overall pattern shift doesent supress the westerlies too far to the south in the atlantic which would increase shear and inhibit TC activity.

[Stormsfury]

SF...I havent been monitoring the tropics as closely as i should be...but i can offer this...as long as that ridge is sitting out there...and with the still rather warm ocean temps across the entire atlantic basin, the area will be a breeding ground for late season TC activity.

and...

it would not even be all the inconcevible to mess around with the possibility of NOV version of olga just in a different spot.

in general though...things look very favorable for late season development.

also...the more we increase these TC numbers the stronger the TFF factor becomes in regard to the atlantic signals vs the paciifc signal which we discussed a few days ago.

That's what impresses me the most about this early November Ridge/trough/Ridge Pattern and the NEG MJO settled in ... Besides Olga a few years ago, I can't remember when the pattern looked like this in early November.

Just for speculation only, if the severe depiction and scenario of the CMC4 ens mem. came to fruitation (or a significant TC) does arise ... It could either do the following ...

1) Latent Heat release into the higher latitudes or
2) Initiate a pattern change IF the hypothetical system does come to fruitation.

Just speculation, though.

SF

[Stormsfury]

that EC solution plays right into my thinking prefectly.

also...remember how yesterday the GGEM was trying to phase soem sort of hybrid or sub-tropical storm with a mid-latitude system in the northwest atlantic creating another "perfect storm" type situation.

while its IMO unlikely...it was very interesting to see.

The GGEM this morning "backed" off so to speak .. only showing a 971 mb versus the 952 mb phased BOMB yesterday ... but still the overall idea, tonight's EURO supports very strongly ...

One thing that troubles me, though ... that PAC JET but that's another area (and a LOT more I need to study with WPAC/EPAC teleconnections).

SF

[RNS]

971 hPa is still fairly strong...though would not compare to that particular event (the perfect storm that is).

though i think we might be jumping the gun here. lets see if the phasing occus first before we jump all over the big ocean low idea.

[Stormsfury]

971 hPa is still fairly strong...though would not compare to that particular event (the perfect storm that is).

though i think we might be jumping the gun here. lets see if the phasing occus first before we jump all over the big ocean low idea.

I'm not jumping on this either just yet ... I remember the last event (the potential EURO day 4 setup for severe in the SE/MA/southern NE panned out) and I jumped too soon ... and definitely I'm not thinking a perfect storm scenario ... if memory serves me right, that evolution was different.

[RNS]

the skill of the EC has been diminishing lately (courtesy in part i believe to the effects of the solar activity on long range model preformance) however in any case...we should view long range data with much caution through the remainder of the month...or until the activity decreases to comfortable levels. (flux is still holding around 1700 as of todays analysis)

[Rainband]

Can you two speak in Laymens terms..well...for the ..Laymens

[RNS]

yea...i busted that one too, SF

"Can you two speak in Laymens terms..well...for the ..Laymens"

i/ll give it a shot...lol

[Stormsfury]

the skill of the EC has been diminishing lately (courtesy in part i believe to the effects of the solar activity on long range model preformance) however in any case...we should view long range data with much caution through the remainder of the month...or until the activity decreases to comfortable levels. (flux is still holding around 1700 as of todays analysis)

Doesn't help that 486 launched possibly the strongest ever recorded flare earlier today ...

http://www.storm2k.org/phpbb2/viewtopic.php?t=18222

[Stormsfury]

Can you two speak in Laymens terms..well...for the ..Laymens

LMAO!

Sorry, Rainband ...

[LMolineux]

Very interesting point of view and yes RNS has a big valid point about the 486 that will play one of the hugest underestimated causes in our weather patterns.

[RNS]

well...put it this way...

if the sun continues to release these intense X-class flares...Im going to have to change my december outlook (to be released here as soon as i finish the winter outkook...which this year will be later thanks to the NCEP computer problems)

[rainstorm]

interesting week ahead

[RNS]

"interesting week ahead"

to say the least...lol...

[Rainband]

Can you two speak in Laymens terms..well...for the ..Laymens

LMAO!

Sorry, Rainband ...

It's ok!! I just wanna learn

[LMolineux]

Hey RNS good point but funny how if the NCEP model output becomes so ultra perfect LMAO it would be like whoa what a change. But we all know it will not happen. But this sun storm issue is a major issue and is going to alter the whole pattern for time to come the short term is almost a lock but long term is somethign to look at and deal with and figure out now.

[RNS]

thanks...but

NCEP model output become ultra-perfect....

LMAO...severely

and did you know that hogs can fly as well...