Texas Winter 2020-2021

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Ralph's Weather
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Re: Texas Winter 2020-2021

#1521 Postby Ralph's Weather » Sat Jan 09, 2021 1:27 pm

Brent wrote:
bubba hotep wrote:Texas Tech WRF showing a band of heavy snow moving across DFW with the sounding showing surface temp near 32F. Also, the dry layer was eroded well before this band moves in.

http://www.atmo.ttu.edu/bancell/real_time_WRF/current_run/d02_det_sfc_dbz_f29.png


How does that change to rain later :spam: lower rates?

That sounds eerily like February 2010 tbh

It won't change back after it changes.
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Re: Texas Winter 2020-2021

#1522 Postby Brent » Sat Jan 09, 2021 1:33 pm

Ralph's Weather wrote:
Brent wrote:
bubba hotep wrote:Texas Tech WRF showing a band of heavy snow moving across DFW with the sounding showing surface temp near 32F. Also, the dry layer was eroded well before this band moves in.

http://www.atmo.ttu.edu/bancell/real_time_WRF/current_run/d02_det_sfc_dbz_f29.png


How does that change to rain later :spam: lower rates?

That sounds eerily like February 2010 tbh

It won't change back after it changes.


I know, I'm just saying that's what everyone here basically is predicting :roll:
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Re: Texas Winter 2020-2021

#1523 Postby rwfromkansas » Sat Jan 09, 2021 1:36 pm

Delkus just upped DFW snow to 1-2 inches. 3 in spots.
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Re: Texas Winter 2020-2021

#1524 Postby Ntxw » Sat Jan 09, 2021 1:45 pm

Found a little gem digging for some archive maps. January 15-16, 1964. DFW's lesser known footer. Waco got 5-6" out of it. Not saying a foot here but analogous 500mb pattern. Also warmish surface and track of ULL.

Image

Image
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Re: Texas Winter 2020-2021

#1525 Postby EnnisTx » Sat Jan 09, 2021 1:47 pm

rwfromkansas wrote:Delkus just upped DFW snow to 1-2 inches. 3 in spots.


Then you should expect 6+ :wink:
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Re: Texas Winter 2020-2021

#1526 Postby harp » Sat Jan 09, 2021 2:29 pm

Ntxw wrote:Found a little gem digging for some archive maps. January 15-16, 1964. DFW's lesser known footer. Waco got 5-6" out of it. Not saying a foot here but analogous 500mb pattern. Also warmish surface and track of ULL.

https://i.imgur.com/PR73C9P.png

https://i.imgur.com/mKBptfp.png

I was a child living in Dallas at the time. I remember it well. We have home movies of it.
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Re: Texas Winter 2020-2021

#1527 Postby Cerlin » Sat Jan 09, 2021 2:31 pm

Just got a notification on my phone. Winter Weather Advisory finally issued for Denton County and probably other counties too.
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Re: Texas Winter 2020-2021

#1528 Postby Captmorg70 » Sat Jan 09, 2021 2:35 pm

Cerlin wrote:Just got a notification on my phone. Winter Weather Advisory finally issued for Denton County and probably other counties too.


Looks like Advisories for Denton/Collin/Tarrant/Dallas counties. A few surrounding counties, but not the Red River counties.

Also, the Watches were converted to warnings.
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Re: Texas Winter 2020-2021

#1529 Postby Brent » Sat Jan 09, 2021 2:36 pm

.Winter storm expected across portions of North and Central
Texas on Sunday and into early Monday...

TXZ102-103-118>121-134-100400-
/O.NEW.KFWD.WW.Y.0001.210110T1200Z-210111T1200Z/
Wise-Denton-Tarrant-Dallas-Rockwall-Kaufman-Ellis-
Including the cities of Decatur, Bridgeport, Carrollton, Denton,
Lewisville, Flower Mound, Fort Worth, Arlington, Dallas,
Rockwall, Heath, Terrell, Kaufman, Forney, Waxahachie, Ennis,
and Midlothian
130 PM CST Sat Jan 9 2021

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 6 AM SUNDAY TO 6 AM CST
MONDAY...

* WHAT...Snow expected. Total snow accumulations of 1 to 2 inches
with isolated totals near 3 inches possible.
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Re: Texas Winter 2020-2021

#1530 Postby rwfromkansas » Sat Jan 09, 2021 2:38 pm

Steve McCauley Image
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Re: Texas Winter 2020-2021

#1531 Postby bubba hotep » Sat Jan 09, 2021 2:47 pm

18z HRRR is nice looking and lingers snow over portions of N. Texas for a long time in association with the upper low.
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Winter time post are almost exclusively focused on the DFW area.

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Re: Texas Winter 2020-2021

#1532 Postby cheezyWXguy » Sat Jan 09, 2021 2:48 pm

bubba hotep wrote:18z HRRR is nice looking and lingers snow over portions of N. Texas for a long time in association with the upper low.

What’s the deal with it switching back to rain for a portion of the event? Is that reasonable?
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Re: Texas Winter 2020-2021

#1533 Postby Captmorg70 » Sat Jan 09, 2021 2:50 pm

cheezyWXguy wrote:
bubba hotep wrote:18z HRRR is nice looking and lingers snow over portions of N. Texas for a long time in association with the upper low.

What’s the deal with it switching back to rain for a portion of the event? Is that reasonable?


It looks like the surface temps are ~ 37-38 degrees when it switches back to rain.
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Re: Texas Winter 2020-2021

#1534 Postby EnnisTx » Sat Jan 09, 2021 2:51 pm

Brent wrote:.Winter storm expected across portions of North and Central
Texas on Sunday and into early Monday...

TXZ102-103-118>121-134-100400-
/O.NEW.KFWD.WW.Y.0001.210110T1200Z-210111T1200Z/
Wise-Denton-Tarrant-Dallas-Rockwall-Kaufman-Ellis-
Including the cities of Decatur, Bridgeport, Carrollton, Denton,
Lewisville, Flower Mound, Fort Worth, Arlington, Dallas,
Rockwall, Heath, Terrell, Kaufman, Forney, Waxahachie, Ennis,
and Midlothian
130 PM CST Sat Jan 9 2021

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 6 AM SUNDAY TO 6 AM CST
MONDAY...

* WHAT...Snow expected. Total snow accumulations of 1 to 2 inches
with isolated totals near 3 inches possible.



I'm betting we see some of those purple colors converted to bright pink before it's over.
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Re: Texas Winter 2020-2021

#1535 Postby rwfromkansas » Sat Jan 09, 2021 2:56 pm

Captmorg70 wrote:
cheezyWXguy wrote:
bubba hotep wrote:18z HRRR is nice looking and lingers snow over portions of N. Texas for a long time in association with the upper low.

What’s the deal with it switching back to rain for a portion of the event? Is that reasonable?


It looks like the surface temps are ~ 37-38 degrees when it switches back to rain.


I thought temps were going to be 32-34 for DFW. That would really limit accumulations if it goes above 35.
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Re: Texas Winter 2020-2021

#1536 Postby Brent » Sat Jan 09, 2021 3:11 pm

cheezyWXguy wrote:
bubba hotep wrote:18z HRRR is nice looking and lingers snow over portions of N. Texas for a long time in association with the upper low.

What’s the deal with it switching back to rain for a portion of the event? Is that reasonable?


That would annoy me if we get accumulation only to be washed away 30 minutes later :spam:
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Re: Texas Winter 2020-2021

#1537 Postby Cerlin » Sat Jan 09, 2021 3:12 pm

rwfromkansas wrote:
Captmorg70 wrote:
cheezyWXguy wrote:What’s the deal with it switching back to rain for a portion of the event? Is that reasonable?


It looks like the surface temps are ~ 37-38 degrees when it switches back to rain.


I thought temps were going to be 32-34 for DFW. That would really limit accumulations if it goes above 35.

With how strong the rates are, there’s no way there’s not thermal cooling. HRRR keeps the temperatures the same despite higher snowfall rates and I really don’t see how temperatures would persist, let alone raise given that.
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Re: Texas Winter 2020-2021

#1538 Postby cheezyWXguy » Sat Jan 09, 2021 3:18 pm

12k nam is pretty great for dfw, with no changeover back to rain
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Re: Texas Winter 2020-2021

#1539 Postby TropicalTundra » Sat Jan 09, 2021 3:25 pm

Can’t remember the last time we had a winter storm warning :froze: Thank god it’s on a Sunday, would’ve sucked if this was any weekday lol :spam:
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Re: Texas Winter 2020-2021

#1540 Postby Captmorg70 » Sat Jan 09, 2021 3:25 pm

rwfromkansas wrote:
Captmorg70 wrote:
cheezyWXguy wrote:What’s the deal with it switching back to rain for a portion of the event? Is that reasonable?


It looks like the surface temps are ~ 37-38 degrees when it switches back to rain.


I thought temps were going to be 32-34 for DFW. That would really limit accumulations if it goes above 35.


I agree with Cerlin that there should be dynamic cooling with the snowfall. Ie I think once it start snowing it shouldn’t switch back over.

Just the HRRR is keeping those surface temps at a spot where cold rain was coming down on that run.
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