Florida Weather

[NDG]

Fast moving cool wx pattern will continue over the 7-10 days but I don't see any temps we haven't seen this Meteorological winter so far, of 30s across the I-4 corridor, 40s S FL.
Blocking across Canada is not letting the Artic air come across from Siberia and settle in, those are the ones that give us our record breaking cold wx.
Blocking across Canada seems to let go in the 7-10 day but the pattern for FL might change by then and the Arctic air may stay across the northern US, time will tell.

[gatorcane]

12Z Euro with mid 30s for Central Florida and the I-4 corridor next Sat night Jan 16th.

[gatorcane]

12Z Euro with mid 30s for Central Florida and the I-4 corridor next Sat night Jan 16th. Looks similar to tonight just a few degrees colder.

Today looks like some lingering cloud cover over Central Florida has kept the temps quite chilly with mid 50s across Tampa and Orlando. Most of the clouds have burnt off but there are still some right along the west coast as the colder air moves over the relatively warmer Gulf.

[psyclone]

low 50's in the early afternoon marking another weekend of craptacular weather around here. we got really spoiled the last few years. This year is reminder that even in fl...winter sucks. at least the days are getting longer..

[chaser1]

12Z Euro with mid 30s for Central Florida and the I-4 corridor next Sat night Jan 16th.

Today looks like some lingering cloud cover over Central Florida has kept the temps quite chilly with mid 50s across Tampa and Orlando. Most of the clouds have burnt off but there are still some right along the west coast as the colder air moves over the relatively warmer Gulf.[/quote]

Ditto for the ICON and GEM. They're also projecting mid 30's for Central Fla for next weekend. In fact, all of the models are projecting lower heights for much of the E. CONUS overall. This year is proving that Florida can receive repetitive cool to cold fronts during the Winter without a massive Stratospheric outbreak. In fact, the long range is looking like a significant deviation of the Polar Vortex may be in play (see link attached). https://twitter.com/i/status/1347980263456964612

[NDG]

As thought,the Euro is trending warmer on low temps for next Saturday and Sunday mornings. GFS is even warmer, never bought into the Euro's colder solutions.

[Patrick99]

Watching the models has been mesmerizing lately - it's like blobs of cold and storminess constantly rotating around the mid-Atlantic like a fidget spinner. They never really seem to do much more than graze the peninsula, though. Looks like Saturday is the coolest day in Miami with a low around 52, but looks like pretty average January weather other than that. Which is nice in its own right....not too chilly at night, not too hot during the day.

[chaser1]

Watching the models has been mesmerizing lately - it's like blobs of cold and storminess constantly rotating around the mid-Atlantic like a fidget spinner. They never really seem to do much more than graze the peninsula, though. Looks like Saturday is the coolest day in Miami with a low around 52, but looks like pretty average January weather other than that. Which is nice in its own right....not too chilly at night, not too hot during the day.

What I continue to find most fascinating is the overall "dull" yet consistently cool weather that the northern 2/3's of the state have experienced thus far. Rather then generally mild to warm with intermittent shots of cool weather lasting for 2-3 days, this December/January has largely provided seasonally cool temperatures with only brief warm up's before returning chilly again. Just like you had alluded, there's nothing extreme or remotely close to record breaking but it's interesting how consistently cool our Central Florida weather has been. Seems to me that the mid level heights have remained generally low allowing night time temps to generally remain in a range from the 40's - 50's for Central Florida. In spite of the lower mid level heights however, the zonal nature and generally westward mid level flow are what seems to help maintain night time temps from getting as chilly further south in S. Florida. Growing up in Miami, I remember it being fairly common to have strong shots of cold air behind a few potent cold fronts each Winter allowing night time temps to drop into the low 40's. Heck, it wasn't exactly rare to see a few mid/upper 30's for Western Palm Beach, Broward, southward into inland W. Kendall/Redlands area one or two nights most Winters. This year night time lows don't seem to have flirted quite that low way down south in spite of seasonally mild conditions for much of the past 6 weeks.

I keep hearing murmurs regarding a larger scale stratospheric weakening being signaled toward the end of Jan. and into early February. If this came to fruition i'd expect to see far colder temps spill into the Midwest and over large parts of the Eastern CONUS. Such a severe cold outbreak could result in one or more colder blasts of air to plummet south into Florida but thus far it seems that while overall mid level troughing might continue over the Eastern U.S and GOM, we're not really seeing any particularly sharp and deep troughs extending quite this far south that would result in freezing intrusions for most of Florida. That threat could still occur but I haven't seen any long range suggesting that. For the moment, the next 10 days appear to remain seasonally mild to cool for the far south and cool to quite chilly for the northern 2/3's of the peninsula. You guys in farther north Florida must be pretty consistently chilly and are either loving a real Florida Winter season, or truly hating it LOL. Statewide, the closest thing to any particularly interesting weather might be limited to a day-long stratiform rainfall event for South/Central Florida with any weak surface low that might slide east along yet another slow southward moving frontal boundary early next week.

[psyclone]

cloudy, 60 and a stout breeze in the middle of the afternoon. sorry snowbirds you're getting skunked this year. go farther south. this winter has been a reminder that in a somewhat below normal pattern...you get a lot of bang for the buck as one heads down the peninsula. I saw a maple tree budding yesterday. come on spring! No 70 degree highs over the next week on my NWS forecast..

[Patrick99]

In spite of the lower mid level heights however, the zonal nature and generally westward mid level flow are what seems to help maintain night time temps from getting as chilly further south in S. Florida. Growing up in Miami, I remember it being fairly common to have strong shots of cold air behind a few potent cold fronts each Winter allowing night time temps to drop into the low 40's. Heck, it wasn't exactly rare to see a few mid/upper 30's for Western Palm Beach, Broward, southward into inland W. Kendall/Redlands area one or two nights most Winters. This year night time lows don't seem to have flirted quite that low way down south in spite of seasonally mild conditions for much of the past 6 weeks.

I remember those. There was always a strong-ish initial cold front followed by a "reinforcing shot" a day or so later, when we could for sure expect low-mid 40s, occasionally into the 30s with a minor frost possibility if conditions were just right. This happened at least once most years, and it almost always happened in late December/early-mid January, with greater preference for Jan. 1-15.

It has been an odd winter, though, you're right. We haven't seen any of those classic NAO- Arctic shots down the state, but we also haven't seen the overbearing Bermuda/Caribbean high sitting over us shunting everything away or weakening it to nothing like some years since 2010, while keeping us squarely in the 80s. It seems to be much further south and east than it typically has been, almost over the lesser Antilles. We've strangely kept pretty close to the historical average high/low, for quite a few days at a time!

[gatorcane]

Polar invasion into Florida on the 12Z GFS super long-range. Multiple nights with lows in the 20s deep down into the peninsula. Looks like a piece of the polar vortex breaks off. Thankfully it is so far out in the run that it will change but hints of Arctic intrusion are there in the model which bears watching

[boca]

Polar invasion into Florida on the 12Z GFS super long-range. Multiple nights with lows in the 20s deep down into the peninsula. Looks like a piece of the polar vortex breaks off. Thankfully it is so far out in the run that it will change but hints of Arctic intrusion are there in the model which bears watching

I’m not getting my hopes up with the Arctic intrusion because the GFS will normally squash my hopes when it’s 5 days out.

[toad strangler]

Polar invasion into Florida on the 12Z GFS super long-range. Multiple nights with lows in the 20s deep down into the peninsula. Looks like a piece of the polar vortex breaks off. Thankfully it is so far out in the run that it will change but hints of Arctic intrusion are there in the model which bears watching

I’m not getting my hopes up with the Arctic intrusion because the GFS will normally squash my hopes when it’s 5 days out.

It's well over two weeks out. I'm taking with a grain of sea salt.

[gatorcane]

Polar invasion into Florida on the 12Z GFS super long-range. Multiple nights with lows in the 20s deep down into the peninsula. Looks like a piece of the polar vortex breaks off. Thankfully it is so far out in the run that it will change but hints of Arctic intrusion are there in the model which bears watching

I’m not getting my hopes up with the Arctic intrusion because the GFS will normally squash my hopes when it’s 5 days out.

Something like that would cause some serious damage to a lot of vegetation and crops across Florida. Let’s hope that, like the GFS CAT 5s into Florida that don’t pan out, the same is true here

[NDG]

Anything past the 5-7 day range from the models have to be taken with a grain of salt, unless the teleconnections indicate so. PNA is forecasted to go negative in the 5-14 day range by all ensemble members so any Arctic airmass intrussion in the US will be focused in the central and NW US.
Looks like 80s is more likely for the FL Peninsula in that time range than an Arctic intrussion.

[boca]

At least we’re getting the cool air before it torches out with 80’s in a few weeks.

[gatorcane]

We only get above 70 one day (tomorrow) for the next 5 days including today. That is certainly “winter” for South Florida standards!

As for the end-of-January arctic intrusion, the GFS is still trying to figure out how to handle it, should know more in about a week.

[psyclone]

Tis the season for arctic invasion drama...real or fake. It usually ends up fake...which is a good thing otherwise Florida would not look like Florida. One bit of good news is the timeline for this is short...we have about a month left before the longer days bail us out of the deep freeze potential.

[chaser1]

Daytona Beach snow flurries LOL? Okay, file this in the "fun to watch" bin. 6Z GFS and GFS-Para suddenly tilting super-cold down into Florida during the last few days of this month. Then again, this was the happy-hour model run too........ For now, just watching for repetitive model run solutions

[boca]

The cold air that the 6z GFS was showing has not materialized on the 12z GFS. I’m just hoping we can keep these cold fronts coming before we torch out.