SIO: ELOISE - Remnants

[cycloneye]

ZCZC 990
WTIO30 FMEE 211303
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)
0.A WARNING NUMBER: 24/7/20202021
1.A MODERATE TROPICAL STORM 7 (ELOISE)
2.A POSITION 2021/01/21 AT 1200 UTC:
WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 17.1 S / 42.0 E
(SEVENTEEN DECIMAL ONE DEGREES SOUTH AND
FORTY TWO DECIMAL ZERO DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT: WEST-SOUTH-WEST 12 KT
3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 3.0/3.5/S 0.0/12 H
4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 992 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 40 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW): 139 KM
6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 240 SE: 240 SW: 185 NW: 0
34 KT NE: 150 SE: 150 SW: 150 NW: 0
7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1006 HPA / 400 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP
1.B FORECASTS (WINDS RADII IN KM):
12H: 2021/01/22 00 UTC: 18.1 S / 39.8 E, VENT MAX= 050 KT, SEVERE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 260 SE: 335 SW: 280 NW: 120
34 KT NE: 205 SE: 165 SW: 130 NW: 110
48 KT NE: 95 SE: 100 SW: 110 NW: 35
24H: 2021/01/22 12 UTC: 18.8 S / 37.6 E, VENT MAX= 070 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 280 SE: 350 SW: 280 NW: 120
34 KT NE: 215 SE: 185 SW: 130 NW: 110
48 KT NE: 95 SE: 100 SW: 110 NW: 65
64 KT NE: 65 SE: 65 SW: 65 NW: 55
36H: 2021/01/23 00 UTC: 19.7 S / 35.6 E, VENT MAX= 090 KT, INTENSE
TROPICAL CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 295 SE: 360 SW: 280 NW: 120
34 KT NE: 220 SE: 205 SW: 140 NW: 110
48 KT NE: 100 SE: 110 SW: 120 NW: 65
64 KT NE: 65 SE: 75 SW: 65 NW: 55
48H: 2021/01/23 12 UTC: 20.4 S / 33.7 E, VENT MAX= 065 KT, OVERLAND
DEPRESSION
28 KT NE: 315 SE: 380 SW: 280 NW: 120
34 KT NE: 230 SE: 230 SW: 140 NW: 110
48 KT NE: 100 SE: 120 SW: 120 NW: 65
64 KT NE: 65 SE: 75 SW: 75 NW: 55
60H: 2021/01/24 00 UTC: 21.3 S / 32.3 E, VENT MAX= 035 KT, OVERLAND
DEPRESSION
28 KT NE: 345 SE: 400 SW: 280 NW: 120
34 KT NE: 240 SE: 250 SW: 150 NW: 110
72H: 2021/01/24 12 UTC: 22.1 S / 31.1 E, VENT MAX= 025 KT, OVERLAND
DEPRESSION
2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK:
NIL
2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATION:
T=3.0;CI=3.5-
DURING THE LAST 6 HOURS, THE CENTER OF ELOISE PASSED TO THE IMMEDIATE
NORTH OF JUAN DE NOVA, AS SHOWN BY THE WIND ROTATION OBSERVED ON THE
ISLAND, FROM THE EAST SECTOR TO THE NORTH SECTOR. SATELLITE IMAGES IN
THE VISIBLE CHANNEL SHOW A STRUCTURE WITH A WIDE CORE, WHICH IS
CONFIRMED BY THE MICROWAVE GMI IMAGERY OF 1015UTC AND THE LAST ASCAT
SWATH (0551UTC). A BANDED EYE STRUCTURE SEEMS TO APPEAR ON THE LAST
VISIBLE IMAGES, CONFIRMING A DVORAK ANALYSIS AT T3.0. THIS DVORAK
ANALYSIS ALLOWS TO ESTIMATE THE WINDS AT 40KT, A VALUE THAT SLIGHTLY
SURPASSES THE PREVIOUS ASCAT DATA OF 0551UTC WHICH WERE CLOSER TO
35KT. ELOISE IS THEREFORE STILL A MODERATE TROPICAL STORM.
THE SYSTEM SHOULD CONTINUE ON A WEST-SOUTHWEST TRACK ACROSS THE
CHANNEL, MOVING ON THE NORTHWEST EDGE OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE
LOCATED SOUTHEAST OF MADAGASCAR. FOLLOWING THIS TRACK, ELOISE SHOULD
REACH THE MOZAMBICAN COAST BY SATURDAY MORNING (MOZAMBICAN TIME).
CONFIDENCE IN THE TRACK FORECAST REMAINS GOOD AND IS BASED ON A TIGHT
MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS. THE TIME OF LANDFALL IS STILL SLIGHTLY
UNCERTAIN.
IN TERMS OF INTENSITY, THE ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE TO
A FRANK AND RAPID INTENSIFICATION (WARM WATER, WET ENVIRONMENT, NO
SHEAR AND GOOD DIVERGENCE ON THE NORTH SIDE). THIS INTENSIFICATION
SHOULD TAKE PLACE WITHIN THE NEXT 12 HOURS, WHEN THE CORE OF THE
SYSTEM CONSOLIDATES. THE GUIDANCES ARE GLOBALLY VERY REACTIVE FROM
THE FIRST STAGES OF THE FORECAST (TOO MUCH COMPARED TO THE
OBSERVATION) AND SUGGEST THAT ELOISE SHOULD REACH THE THRESHOLD OF
INTENSE TROPICAL CYCLONE BEFORE LANDFALL, SCENARIO CURRENTLY FOLLOWED
BY THE RSMC, TAKING INTO ACCOUNT THE DELAY OF INTENSIFICATION
OBSERVED IN THE SHORT TERM.
FOR MOZAMBIQUE, THE THREAT OF A SIGNIFICANT IMPACT IS INCREASING FOR
THE AREA AROUND BEIRA, BETWEEN QUELIMANE IN THE NORTH AND INHAMBANE
IN THE SOUTH. ON THURSDAY, HEAVY RAINS WILL START TO IMPACT SOME
AREAS, A LARGE COASTAL ZONE BETWEEN ANGOCHE AND QUELIMANE AS THE
METEOR APPROACHES. THE STRONG WIND SHOULD ALSO BE MORE PRESENT FROM
THE NIGHT OF THURSDAY TO FRIDAY IN THESE AREAS. FROM FRIDAY ONWARD,
THE IMPACTED ZONE MOVES MORE TOWARDS BEIRA AND DEEPER INLAND. THE
INHABITANTS OF THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN REGIONS OF MOZAMBIQUE ARE
INVITED TO FOLLOW THE INSTRUCTIONS OF THE LOCAL AUTHORITIES FROM NOW
ON.=
NNNN

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ZCZC 267
WTIO30 FMEE 211844
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)
0.A WARNING NUMBER: 25/7/20202021
1.A MODERATE TROPICAL STORM 7 (ELOISE)
2.A POSITION 2021/01/21 AT 1800 UTC:
WITHIN 30 NM RADIUS OF POINT 17.8 S / 40.8 E
(SEVENTEEN DECIMAL EIGHT DEGREES SOUTH AND
FORTY DECIMAL EIGHT DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT: WEST-SOUTH-WEST 12 KT
3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 3.5/3.5/D 0.5/6 H
4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 990 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 45 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW): 102 KM
6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 240 SE: 280 SW: 220 NW: 220
34 KT NE: 185 SE: 185 SW: 150 NW: 185
7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1006 HPA / 500 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP
1.B FORECASTS (WINDS RADII IN KM):
12H: 2021/01/22 06 UTC: 18.7 S / 38.2 E, VENT MAX= 055 KT, SEVERE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 315 SE: 370 SW: 270 NW: 140
34 KT NE: 205 SE: 230 SW: 185 NW: 130
48 KT NE: 110 SE: 65 SW: 85 NW: 65
24H: 2021/01/22 18 UTC: 19.3 S / 36.3 E, VENT MAX= 065 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 270 SE: 345 SW: 270 NW: 110
34 KT NE: 175 SE: 215 SW: 185 NW: 95
48 KT NE: 110 SE: 85 SW: 95 NW: 85
64 KT NE: 55 SE: 45 SW: 35 NW: 65
36H: 2021/01/23 06 UTC: 20.1 S / 34.5 E, VENT MAX= 080 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 280 SE: 315 SW: 120 NW: 100
34 KT NE: 175 SE: 205 SW: 95 NW: 85
48 KT NE: 110 SE: 65 SW: 55 NW: 75
64 KT NE: 55 SE: 45 SW: 35 NW: 65
48H: 2021/01/23 18 UTC: 20.7 S / 32.9 E, VENT MAX= 035 KT, OVERLAND
DEPRESSION
28 KT NE: 215 SE: 175 SW: 45 NW: 55
34 KT NE: 150 SE: 120 SW: 35 NW: 35
60H: 2021/01/24 06 UTC: 21.5 S / 31.3 E, VENT MAX= 025 KT, OVERLAND
DEPRESSION
72H: 2021/01/24 18 UTC: 21.9 S / 30.2 E, VENT MAX= 020 KT, OVERLAND
DEPRESSION
2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK:
NIL
2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATION:
T=CI=3.5-
DURING THE LAST 6 HOURS, DEEP CONVECTION CLOSE TO THE CENTER SHOW
INCREASING SIGNS OF CURVATURE. LAST MICRO WAVE DATA (1356Z SSMIS,..)
ALSO SHOW A MORE COMPACT INNER CORE. STRONGEST WINDS MEASURED AT JUAN
DE NOVA CONFIRM THE PRESENCE OF GALE FORCE WITHIN THE CIRCULATION.
LAST SUBJECTIVE DVORAK ANALYSIS ARE AROUND 3.0/3.5. FINALLY, 1518Z
SMAP SWATH SHOW MAXIMUM WINDS AROUND 60KT. EVEN IT SEEMS TO
OVERESTIMATE, THE REAL INTENSITY IS PROBABLY CLOSE TO SEVERE TROPICAL
STORM THRESHOLD. INTENSITY IS SET FOR NOW AT 45KT WHICH MAY BE A BIT
CONSERVATIVE.
THE SYSTEM SHOULD CONTINUE ON A WEST-SOUTHWEST TRACK ACROSS THE
CHANNEL, MOVING ON THE NORTHWEST EDGE OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE
LOCATED SOUTHEAST OF MADAGASCAR. FOLLOWING THIS TRACK, ELOISE SHOULD
REACH THE MOZAMBICAN COAST BETWEEN FRIDAY EVENING AND SATURDAY
MORNING. CONFIDENCE IN THE TRACK FORECAST REMAINS GOOD AND IS BASED
ON A LOW SPREAD MULTI-MODEL ENSEMBLE.
IN TERMS OF INTENSITY, THE ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE TO
A SWIFT OR EVEN RAPID INTENSIFICATION (WARM WATER, WET ENVIRONMENT,
NO SHEAR AND GOOD DIVERGENCE ON THE NORTH SIDE). EVEN IF THE CURRENT
FORECAST DO NOT REACH INTENSE TROPICAL CYCLONE STAGE, SUCH
INTENSITIES ARE STILL POSSIBLE.
THE THREAT OF A SIGNIFICANT IMPACT FOR THE AREA AROUND BEIRA, BETWEEN
THE ZAMBEZI AND SAVE DELTAS IS STILL PRESENT. TOMORROW HEAVY RAINS
WILL START TO IMPACT SOME AREAS, A LARGE COASTAL ZONE BETWEEN ANGOCHE
AND QUELIMANE AS THE METEOR APPROACHES. THE STRONG WIND SHOULD ALSO
BE MORE PRESENT FROM TOMORROW IN THESE AREAS. FROM FRIDAY, THE WORST
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO MOVE TOWARDS BEIRA THEN INLAND WITH THE
ELOISE CENTER. THE INHABITANTS OF MOZAMBIQUE ARE INVITED TO FOLLOW
THE INSTRUCTIONS OF THE LOCAL AUTHORITIES.=
NNNN

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ZCZC 909
WTIO30 FMEE 220055
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)
0.A WARNING NUMBER: 26/7/20202021
1.A SEVERE TROPICAL STORM 7 (ELOISE)
2.A POSITION 2021/01/22 AT 0000 UTC:
WITHIN 30 NM RADIUS OF POINT 18.2 S / 39.3 E
(EIGHTEEN DECIMAL TWO DEGREES SOUTH AND
THIRTY NINE DECIMAL THREE DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT: WEST-SOUTH-WEST 12 KT
3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 3.5/3.5/D 0.5/12 H
4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 986 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 55 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW): 93 KM
6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 240 SE: 370 SW: 315 NW: 220
34 KT NE: 185 SE: 185 SW: 165 NW: 165
48 KT NE: 0 SE: 110 SW: 110 NW: 0
7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1017 HPA / 700 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP
1.B FORECASTS (WINDS RADII IN KM):
12H: 2021/01/22 12 UTC: 19.0 S / 37.1 E, VENT MAX= 065 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 220 SE: 370 SW: 285 NW: 110
34 KT NE: 165 SE: 215 SW: 185 NW: 100
48 KT NE: 100 SE: 100 SW: 95 NW: 65
64 KT NE: 65 SE: 75 SW: 75 NW: 55
24H: 2021/01/23 00 UTC: 19.6 S / 35.3 E, VENT MAX= 070 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 205 SE: 325 SW: 185 NW: 100
34 KT NE: 150 SE: 195 SW: 120 NW: 95
48 KT NE: 95 SE: 85 SW: 75 NW: 65
64 KT NE: 55 SE: 75 SW: 65 NW: 55
36H: 2021/01/23 12 UTC: 20.4 S / 33.5 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT, OVERLAND
DEPRESSION
28 KT NE: 205 SE: 205 SW: 0 NW: 0
48H: 2021/01/24 00 UTC: 21.2 S / 32.1 E, VENT MAX= 025 KT, OVERLAND
DEPRESSION
60H: 2021/01/24 12 UTC: 21.8 S / 30.8 E, VENT MAX= 020 KT, OVERLAND
DEPRESSION
72H: 2021/01/25 00 UTC: 22.1 S / 29.4 E, VENT MAX= 020 KT, OVERLAND
DEPRESSION
2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK:
NIL
2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATION:
T=CI=3.5+
DURING THE LAST 6 HOURS, ELOISE CLOUD PATTERN IMPROVED WITH
INCREASING CURVATURE PATTERNS. 1822Z ASCAT DATA SUGGEST THAT THE
STORM FORCE WINDS WERE ALREADY PRESENT IN THE CIRCULATION AT 18Z, IN
THE SOUTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE. GIVEN THE IMPROVEMENT, SUBJECTIVE DVORAK
ANALYSIS CLOSE TYO 3.5/4.0 AND THESE DATA, INTENSITY WAS SET TO 55KT.
THE SYSTEM SHOULD CONTINUE ON A WEST-SOUTHWEST TRACK ACROSS THE
CHANNEL, MOVING ON THE NORTHWEST EDGE OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE
LOCATED SOUTHEAST OF MADAGASCAR. FOLLOWING THIS TRACK, ELOISE SHOULD
REACH THE MOZAMBICAN COAST BETWEEN FRIDAY EVENING AND SATURDAY
MORNING. ON THE LATEST IMAGES A MORE WESTWARD TREND SEEMS VISIBLE. IF
THIS DIRECTION WAS TO BE MAINTAINED, THE TIMING AND THE LANDFALL MAY
CHANGE SIGNIFICANTLY GIVEN THE COASTLINE SHAPE.
IN TERMS OF INTENSITY, THE ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE TO
A SWIFT OR EVEN RAPID INTENSIFICATION (WARM WATER, WET ENVIRONMENT,
NO SHEAR AND GOOD DIVERGENCE ON THE NORTH SIDE). HOWEVER THE
PROXIMITY WXITH THE COASTLINE IS LIKELY TO HINDER THE DEEPENING. THE
INTENSE TROPICAL CYCLONE STAGE IS NOT EXCLUDED BUT APPEARS NOW
UNLIKELY.
ELOISE REPRESENTS A SIGNIFICANT THREAT FOR THE AREA AROUND BEIRA,
BETWEEN QUELIMANE AT NORTH AND SAVE DELTA SOUTH. HEAVY RAINS WILL
CONTINUE TODAY IN THESE AREAS. TONIGHT AND TOMORROW, THE RAINS ARE
EXPECTED TO MOVE INLAND. WIND GUSTS SHOULD EXCEED 100KM/H ON ALL THIS
COASTLINE. A SURGE IS ALSO EXPECTED, REACHING 1M/1M50 AND UP TO 2/4M
LOCALLY ESPECIALLY SOUTH OF BEIRA NEAR THE PUNGWE RIVER. THE
INHABITANTS OF MOZAMBIQUE ARE INVITED TO FOLLOW THE INSTRUCTIONS OF
THE LOCAL AUTHORITIES.=
NNNN

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 https://twitter.com/jnmet/status/1352568272286310400

[cycloneye]

ZCZC 109
WTIO30 FMEE 221241
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)
0.A WARNING NUMBER: 28/7/20202021
1.A TROPICAL CYCLONE 7 (ELOISE)
2.A POSITION 2021/01/22 AT 1200 UTC:
WITHIN 25 NM RADIUS OF POINT 19.1 S / 37.0 E
(NINETEEN DECIMAL ONE DEGREES SOUTH AND
THIRTY SEVEN DECIMAL ZERO DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT: WEST-SOUTH-WEST 11 KT
3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 4.5/4.5/D 1.5/24 H
4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 978 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 65 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW): 50 KM
6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 240 SE: 370 SW: 315 NW: 220
34 KT NE: 185 SE: 185 SW: 165 NW: 165
48 KT NE: 110 SE: 110 SW: 110 NW: 110
64 KT NE: 55 SE: 55 SW: 55 NW: 55
7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1010 HPA / 900 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP
1.B FORECASTS (WINDS RADII IN KM):
12H: 2021/01/23 00 UTC: 20.0 S / 35.0 E, VENT MAX= 075 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 215 SE: 360 SW: 165 NW: 120
34 KT NE: 155 SE: 205 SW: 120 NW: 100
48 KT NE: 95 SE: 85 SW: 75 NW: 65
64 KT NE: 55 SE: 75 SW: 65 NW: 55
24H: 2021/01/23 12 UTC: 20.9 S / 33.3 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT, OVERLAND
DEPRESSION
28 KT NE: 120 SE: 140 SW: 130 NW: 75
36H: 2021/01/24 00 UTC: 21.7 S / 31.9 E, VENT MAX= 020 KT, OVERLAND
DEPRESSION
48H: 2021/01/24 12 UTC: 22.5 S / 30.7 E, VENT MAX= 020 KT, OVERLAND
DEPRESSION
60H: 2021/01/25 00 UTC: 22.9 S / 29.2 E, VENT MAX= 020 KT, OVERLAND
DEPRESSION
72H: 2021/01/25 12 UTC: 22.9 S / 28.0 E, VENT MAX= 020 KT, OVERLAND
DEPRESSION
2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK:
96H: 2021/01/26 12 UTC: 22.4 S / 24.0 E, VENT MAX= 020 KT,
DISSIPATING
2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATION:
T=CI=4.5-
DURING THE LAST 6 HOURS, THE CLOUD PATTERN HAS EVOLVED WITH THE
EMERGENCE A BROAD EYE, WICH REMAINS RATHER RAGGED FOR NOW. CURRENT
INTENSITY IS BASED ON RSMC DVORAK ESTIMATE, IN AGREEMENT WITH
AVAILABLE OBJECTIVE ANS SUBJECTIVE ANALYSIS. THUS, ELOISE REACHED THE
TROPICAL CYCLONE STAGE.
THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE ON A WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD TRACK
ACROSS THE CHANNEL, MOVING ALONG THE NORTHWESTERN EDGE OF THE
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE LOCATED SOUTHEAST OF MADAGASCAR. ELOISE IS EXPECTED
TO LAND IN MOZAMBIQUE TONIGHT OR TOMORROW MORNING. FROM MONDAY, THE
REMNANTS OF ELOISE ARE EXPECTED TO DRIFT WESTWARD, DRIVEN BY A NEW
RIDGE ARRIVING FROM THE WEST. THE TIMING AND LOCATION OF THE LANDFALL
COULD CHANGE SIGNIFICANTLY GIVEN THE CONFIGURATION OF THE COASTLINE.
IN TERMS OF INTENSITY, ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE CONDUCIVE FOR A
SIGNIFICANT OR EVEN RAPID INTENSIFICATION (WARM WATERS, HUMID
ENVIRONMENT, NO SHEAR AND EXCELLENT UPPER DIVERGENCE). NEVERTHELESS,
THE PROXIMITY TO THE LAND MAY LIMIT THE POTENTIAL FOR
INTENSIFICATION. THE STAGE OF INTENSE TROPICAL CYCLONE IS NOT
EXCLUDED BUT BECOMES UNLIKELY.
IN TERMS OF IMPACTS, ELOISE REPRESENTS A SIGNIFICANT THREAT TO THE
AREA NEAR BEIRA, BETWEEN QUELIMANE IN THE NORTH AND THE SAVE RIVER IN
THE SOUTH:
- IN THE NEXT 24 HOURS, 150 TO 250 MM OF RAINFALL IS EXPECTED BETWEEN
QUELIMANE AND INHAMBANE, AND UP TO MORE THAN 300 MM IN THE REGION OF
BEIRA. TONIGHT AND TOMORROW, THIS RISK SHOULD ALSO CONCERN THE INLAND
AREAS.
- GUSTS WILL EXCEED 100 KM/H OVER THE ENTIRE COASTLINE, AND BETWEEN
150 AND 200 KM/H CLOSE TO THE IMPACT POINT.
- A STORM SURGE OF ABOUT 1M TO 1M50 ON AVERAGE IS EXPECTED NORTH OF
BEIRA AND BETWEEN 1M50 AND 2M SOUTH OF BEIRA. THIS STORM SURGE COULD
EXCEED 3M ACCORDING TO THE MOST UNFAVORABLE SCENARIO (LANDFALL ON OR
NORTH OF BEIRA), NEAR THE PUNGWE RIVER. ALTHOUGH OF LOW COEFFICIENT,
THE HIGH TIDE AT 00Z COULD BE AN AGGRAVATING FACTOR.
INHABITANTS OF MOZAMBIQUE ARE INVITED TO FOLLOW THE INSTRUCTIONS OF
THE LOCAL AUTHORITIES.=
NNNN

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ZCZC 552
WTIO30 FMEE 221853
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)
0.A WARNING NUMBER: 29/7/20202021
1.A TROPICAL CYCLONE 7 (ELOISE)
2.A POSITION 2021/01/22 AT 1800 UTC:
WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 19.5 S / 36.1 E
(NINETEEN DECIMAL FIVE DEGREES SOUTH AND
THIRTY SIX DECIMAL ONE DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT: WEST-SOUTH-WEST 10 KT
3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 4.5/4.5/D 1.0/24 H
4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 974 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 70 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW): 37 KM
6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 280 SE: 350 SW: 295 NW: 110
34 KT NE: 220 SE: 270 SW: 220 NW: 75
48 KT NE: 95 SE: 110 SW: 70 NW: 65
64 KT NE: 65 SE: 65 SW: 55 NW: 45
7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1010 HPA / 900 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP
1.B FORECASTS (WINDS RADII IN KM):
12H: 2021/01/23 06 UTC: 20.3 S / 34.2 E, VENT MAX= 065 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 205 SE: 315 SW: 155 NW: 95
34 KT NE: 155 SE: 165 SW: 110 NW: 75
48 KT NE: 85 SE: 100 SW: 65 NW: 65
64 KT NE: 55 SE: 65 SW: 55 NW: 55
24H: 2021/01/23 18 UTC: 21.1 S / 32.7 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT, OVERLAND
DEPRESSION
28 KT NE: 0 SE: 315 SW: 0 NW: 0
36H: 2021/01/24 06 UTC: 22.0 S / 31.3 E, VENT MAX= 025 KT, OVERLAND
DEPRESSION
48H: 2021/01/24 18 UTC: 22.7 S / 29.8 E, VENT MAX= 020 KT, OVERLAND
DEPRESSION
60H: 2021/01/25 06 UTC: 22.7 S / 28.2 E, VENT MAX= 020 KT, OVERLAND
DEPRESSION
72H: 2021/01/25 18 UTC: 22.7 S / 26.3 E, VENT MAX= 020 KT, OVERLAND
DEPRESSION
2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK:
96H: 2021/01/26 18 UTC: 22.2 S / 23.3 E, VENT MAX= 020 KT, OVERLAND
DEPRESSION
2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATION:
T=CI=4.5
THE ELOISE'S EYE CONFIGURATION HAS FLUCTUATED OVER THE LAST 6 HOURS
BUT OVERALL SINCE 15Z, THE OVERALL LOOK IS IMPROVING. JUST BEFORE
18Z, THE EYE HAS BECOME WARMER AND BETTER DEFINED. THE SSMIS F17 PASS
OF 1637Z REVEALED AN EYE STRUGGLING TO CONSOLIDATE. IN ACCORDANCE
WITH DVORAK SUBJECTIVE ESTIMATES, THE INTENSITY IS INCREASED TO 70
KT.
THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE ON A WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD TRACK
MOVING ALONG THE NORTHWESTERN EDGE OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE LOCATED
SOUTHEAST OF MADAGASCAR. ELOISE IS EXPECTED TO LAND IN MOZAMBIQUE
TONIGHT OR TOMORROW MORNING. FROM MONDAY, THE REMNANTS OF ELOISE ARE
EXPECTED TO DRIFT WESTWARD, DRIVEN BY A NEW RIDGE ARRIVING FROM THE
WEST. THE TIMING AND LOCATION OF THE LANDFALL COULD CHANGE
SIGNIFICANTLY GIVEN THE CONFIGURATION OF THE COASTLINE.
IN TERMS OF INTENSITY, ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE CONDUCIVE FOR A
SIGNIFICANT OR EVEN RAPID INTENSIFICATION (WARM WATERS, HUMID
ENVIRONMENT, NO SHEAR AND EXCELLENT UPPER DIVERGENCE). NEVERTHELESS,
THE PROXIMITY TO THE LAND IS LIMITING THE POTENTIAL FOR
INTENSIFICATION WITH THE NORTHERN PART OF THE RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS
THAT COULD MOVE OVERLAND BEFORE LANDFALL.
IN TERMS OF IMPACTS, ELOISE REPRESENTS A SIGNIFICANT THREAT TO THE
AREA NEAR BEIRA, BETWEEN QUELIMANE IN THE NORTH AND THE SAVE RIVER IN
THE SOUTH:
- IN THE NEXT 24 HOURS, 150 TO 250 MM OF RAINFALL IS EXPECTED BETWEEN
THE MOUTH OF THE ZAMBEZE AND VILANCULOS, AND UP TO 300 MM LOCALLY IN
THE REGION OF BEIRA. OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS, HEAVY RAINS (CUMULATIVE
RAINFALL OF MORE THAN 100 MM/24H) WILL MOVE BOTH WESTWARD (SOUTH
ZIMBABWE, NORTH SOUTH AFRICA AND EAST BOTSWANA) BUT ALSO SOUTHWARD
(MAPUTO REGION THIS WEEKEND) AS WELL AS SWAZILAND AND NORTHEAST SOUTH
AFRICA.
- GUSTS WILL EXCEED 100KM/H THROUGHOUT THIS COASTAL ZONE, AND BETWEEN
150 AND 200 KM/H AS CLOSE AS POSSIBLE TO THE POINT OF IMPACT.
- AN ADDITIONAL COST OF AROUND 1M TO 1M50 ON AVERAGE IS EXPECTED
NORTH OF BEIRA AND BETWEEN 1M50 AND 2M SOUTH OF BEIRA. THIS OVERCOTE
COULD EXCEED 3M ACCORDING TO THE MOST UNFAVORABLE SCENARIO (LANDING
ON OR NORTH OF BEIRA), NEAR THE PUNGWE RIVER. ALTHOUGH OF LOW
COEFFICIENT, THE HIGH WATER LEVEL AT 00Z COULD BE AN AGGRAVATING
FACTOR.
THE INHABITANTS OF MOZAMBIQUE AND COUNTRIES CONCERNED BY THE RISK OF
HEAVY RAINS IN THE FOLLOWING DAYS ARE INVITED TO FOLLOW THE
INSTRUCTIONS OF THE LOCAL AUTHORITIES.=
NNNN

[cycloneye]

 https://twitter.com/KeviShader/status/1352756352452612099

[cycloneye]

ZCZC 552
WTIO30 FMEE 221853
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)
0.A WARNING NUMBER: 29/7/20202021
1.A TROPICAL CYCLONE 7 (ELOISE)
2.A POSITION 2021/01/22 AT 1800 UTC:
WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 19.5 S / 36.1 E
(NINETEEN DECIMAL FIVE DEGREES SOUTH AND
THIRTY SIX DECIMAL ONE DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT: WEST-SOUTH-WEST 10 KT
3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 4.5/4.5/D 1.0/24 H
4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 974 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 70 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW): 37 KM
6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 280 SE: 350 SW: 295 NW: 110
34 KT NE: 220 SE: 270 SW: 220 NW: 75
48 KT NE: 95 SE: 110 SW: 70 NW: 65
64 KT NE: 65 SE: 65 SW: 55 NW: 45
7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1010 HPA / 900 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP
1.B FORECASTS (WINDS RADII IN KM):
12H: 2021/01/23 06 UTC: 20.3 S / 34.2 E, VENT MAX= 065 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 205 SE: 315 SW: 155 NW: 95
34 KT NE: 155 SE: 165 SW: 110 NW: 75
48 KT NE: 85 SE: 100 SW: 65 NW: 65
64 KT NE: 55 SE: 65 SW: 55 NW: 55
24H: 2021/01/23 18 UTC: 21.1 S / 32.7 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT, OVERLAND
DEPRESSION
28 KT NE: 0 SE: 315 SW: 0 NW: 0
36H: 2021/01/24 06 UTC: 22.0 S / 31.3 E, VENT MAX= 025 KT, OVERLAND
DEPRESSION
48H: 2021/01/24 18 UTC: 22.7 S / 29.8 E, VENT MAX= 020 KT, OVERLAND
DEPRESSION
60H: 2021/01/25 06 UTC: 22.7 S / 28.2 E, VENT MAX= 020 KT, OVERLAND
DEPRESSION
72H: 2021/01/25 18 UTC: 22.7 S / 26.3 E, VENT MAX= 020 KT, OVERLAND
DEPRESSION
2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK:
96H: 2021/01/26 18 UTC: 22.2 S / 23.3 E, VENT MAX= 020 KT, OVERLAND
DEPRESSION
2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATION:
T=CI=4.5
THE ELOISE'S EYE CONFIGURATION HAS FLUCTUATED OVER THE LAST 6 HOURS
BUT OVERALL SINCE 15Z, THE OVERALL LOOK IS IMPROVING. JUST BEFORE
18Z, THE EYE HAS BECOME WARMER AND BETTER DEFINED. THE SSMIS F17 PASS
OF 1637Z REVEALED AN EYE STRUGGLING TO CONSOLIDATE. IN ACCORDANCE
WITH DVORAK SUBJECTIVE ESTIMATES, THE INTENSITY IS INCREASED TO 70
KT.
THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE ON A WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD TRACK
MOVING ALONG THE NORTHWESTERN EDGE OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE LOCATED
SOUTHEAST OF MADAGASCAR. ELOISE IS EXPECTED TO LAND IN MOZAMBIQUE
TONIGHT OR TOMORROW MORNING. FROM MONDAY, THE REMNANTS OF ELOISE ARE
EXPECTED TO DRIFT WESTWARD, DRIVEN BY A NEW RIDGE ARRIVING FROM THE
WEST. THE TIMING AND LOCATION OF THE LANDFALL COULD CHANGE
SIGNIFICANTLY GIVEN THE CONFIGURATION OF THE COASTLINE.
IN TERMS OF INTENSITY, ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE CONDUCIVE FOR A
SIGNIFICANT OR EVEN RAPID INTENSIFICATION (WARM WATERS, HUMID
ENVIRONMENT, NO SHEAR AND EXCELLENT UPPER DIVERGENCE). NEVERTHELESS,
THE PROXIMITY TO THE LAND IS LIMITING THE POTENTIAL FOR
INTENSIFICATION WITH THE NORTHERN PART OF THE RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS
THAT COULD MOVE OVERLAND BEFORE LANDFALL.
IN TERMS OF IMPACTS, ELOISE REPRESENTS A SIGNIFICANT THREAT TO THE
AREA NEAR BEIRA, BETWEEN QUELIMANE IN THE NORTH AND THE SAVE RIVER IN
THE SOUTH:
- IN THE NEXT 24 HOURS, 150 TO 250 MM OF RAINFALL IS EXPECTED BETWEEN
THE MOUTH OF THE ZAMBEZE AND VILANCULOS, AND UP TO 300 MM LOCALLY IN
THE REGION OF BEIRA. OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS, HEAVY RAINS (CUMULATIVE
RAINFALL OF MORE THAN 100 MM/24H) WILL MOVE BOTH WESTWARD (SOUTH
ZIMBABWE, NORTH SOUTH AFRICA AND EAST BOTSWANA) BUT ALSO SOUTHWARD
(MAPUTO REGION THIS WEEKEND) AS WELL AS SWAZILAND AND NORTHEAST SOUTH
AFRICA.
- GUSTS WILL EXCEED 100KM/H THROUGHOUT THIS COASTAL ZONE, AND BETWEEN
150 AND 200 KM/H AS CLOSE AS POSSIBLE TO THE POINT OF IMPACT.
- AN ADDITIONAL COST OF AROUND 1M TO 1M50 ON AVERAGE IS EXPECTED
NORTH OF BEIRA AND BETWEEN 1M50 AND 2M SOUTH OF BEIRA. THIS OVERCOTE
COULD EXCEED 3M ACCORDING TO THE MOST UNFAVORABLE SCENARIO (LANDING
ON OR NORTH OF BEIRA), NEAR THE PUNGWE RIVER. ALTHOUGH OF LOW
COEFFICIENT, THE HIGH WATER LEVEL AT 00Z COULD BE AN AGGRAVATING
FACTOR.
THE INHABITANTS OF MOZAMBIQUE AND COUNTRIES CONCERNED BY THE RISK OF
HEAVY RAINS IN THE FOLLOWING DAYS ARE INVITED TO FOLLOW THE
INSTRUCTIONS OF THE LOCAL AUTHORITIES.=
NNNN

[cycloneye]

ZCZC 027
WTIO30 FMEE 230645
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)
0.A WARNING NUMBER: 31/7/20202021
1.A MODERATE TROPICAL STORM 7 (ELOISE)
2.A POSITION 2021/01/23 AT 0600 UTC:
WITHIN 30 NM RADIUS OF POINT 20.6 S / 33.9 E
(TWENTY DECIMAL SIX DEGREES SOUTH AND
THIRTY THREE DECIMAL NINE DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT: WEST-SOUTH-WEST 11 KT
3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: NIL
4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 978 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 45 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW): NIL
6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 260 SE: 295 SW: 95 NW: 75
34 KT NE: 205 SE: 205 SW: 55 NW: 0
48 KT NE: 110 SE: 0 SW: 0 NW: 0
7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1010 HPA / 900 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP
1.B FORECASTS (WINDS RADII IN KM):
12H: 2021/01/23 18 UTC: 21.3 S / 32.4 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT, OVERLAND
DEPRESSION
28 KT NE: 100 SE: 75 SW: 30 NW: 55
24H: 2021/01/24 06 UTC: 22.4 S / 30.9 E, VENT MAX= 020 KT, OVERLAND
DEPRESSION
36H: 2021/01/24 18 UTC: 23.0 S / 28.7 E, VENT MAX= 020 KT, OVERLAND
DEPRESSION
48H: 2021/01/25 06 UTC: 23.3 S / 26.9 E, VENT MAX= 015 KT, OVERLAND
DEPRESSION
60H: 2021/01/25 18 UTC: 23.5 S / 24.8 E, VENT MAX= 015 KT, OVERLAND
DEPRESSION
72H: 2021/01/26 06 UTC: 23.5 S / 23.5 E, VENT MAX= 015 KT,
DISSIPATING
2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK:
NIL
2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATION:
THE EYE OF TROPICAL CYCLONE ELOISE MADE LANDFALL AROUND 01Z ON THE
COAST OF MOZAMBIQUE ABOUT 30 KM SOUTH OF BEIRA AND OF THE PUNGWE
RIVER ESTUARY, IN THE BAY OF SOFALA, WITH WINDS ESTIMATED AT 80 KT
AND A CENTRAL PRESSURE CLOSE TO 967 HPA. THE SYNOPTIC STATION OF
BEIRA, CLOSE TO THE NORTHERN EYEWALL, MEASURED A NORTHEASTERLY GUST
OF 130 KM/H AT 01Z.
THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE ON A WEST-SOUTHWEST TRACK MOVING
ON THE NORTHWESTERN EDGE OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE LOCATED SOUTHEAST
OF MADAGASCAR. FROM MONDAY, THE REMNANTS OF ELOISE SHOULD DRIFT
WESTWARD, UNDER THE ACTION OF A NEW RIDGE ARRIVING FROM THE WEST.
ELOISE WILL NOW GRADUALLY WEAKEN OVER LAND. CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY IS
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR SEVERAL MORE HOURS NEAR THE CENTER BEFORE
COLLAPSING IN THE AFTERNOON OR EVENING IN FAVOR OF MORE SPORADIC
RAINSTORM ACTIVITY FARTHER AWAY FROM THE RESIDUAL CENTER.
IN TERMS OF IMPACTS, ELOISE IS ABOUT TO SIGNIFICANTLY IMPACT THE
SOUTHERN PART OF THE BEIRA REGION AND WILL AFFECT MAINLY BY A RISK OF
HEAVY RAINS SEVERAL SOUTHERN AFRICAN COUNTRIES DURING THE NEXT 3
DAYS:
- WINDS GUSTING TO 100/120 KM/H WILL REACH THE REGIONS IN THE LANDS
LOCATED NEAR THE SOUTH OF THE TRACK. ON SUNDAY, STRONG WIND GUSTS OF
UP TO 90-100 KM/H MAY ACCOMPANY THE RAINSTORM EPISODES DEVELOPING
SOUTH OF THE LOW PRESSURE CIRCULATION, THUS MAINLY AFFECTING NORTHERN
SOUTH AFRICA.
- DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS, ADDITIONAL RAIN ACCUMULATIONS IN THE
ORDER OF 50 TO 100 MM IS EXPECTED AT THE LEVEL OF THE IMPACT ZONE.
THE HEAVY RAINS ASSOCIATED WITH ELOISE WILL ALSO REACH THE INTERIOR
OF THE COUNTRY: RAIN ACCUMULATIONS OF 100 TO 150 MM IN 24 HOURS ARE
POSSIBLE ALONG THE TRACK AS WELL AS ON THE MOUNTAINOUS AREAS NEAR THE
BORDER ZONE BETWEEN MOZAMBIQUE AND ZIMBABWE. ON SUNDAY, THE ELOISE
RAINS WILL AFFECT SOUTHERN ZIMBABWE, NORTHERN SOUTH AFRICA AND
EASTERN BOTSWANA, WITH CUMULATIVE RAINFALL OF AROUND 50 TO 100 MM/24H
LOCALLY 150 MM. MEANWHILE, RAINS OF THE SAME MAGNITUDE WILL ALSO
SPREAD SOUTHWARDS OVER SOUTHERN MOZAMBIQUE AND SWAZILAND.
THE INHABITANTS OF MOZAMBIQUE AND OF THE COUNTRIES CONCERNED BY THE
RISK OF HEAVY RAINS IN THE FOLLOWING DAYS ARE INVITED TO FOLLOW THE
INSTRUCTIONS OF THE LOCAL AUTHORITIES.=
NNNN

[cycloneye]

 https://twitter.com/defis_eu/status/1352936497687760897

[cycloneye]

ZCZC 924
WTIO30 FMEE 231242
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)
0.A WARNING NUMBER: 32/7/20202021
1.A OVERLAND DEPRESSION 7 (ELOISE)
2.A POSITION 2021/01/23 AT 1200 UTC:
WITHIN 30 NM RADIUS OF POINT 20.9 S / 33.2 E
(TWENTY DECIMAL NINE DEGREES SOUTH AND
THIRTY THREE DECIMAL TWO DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT: WEST-SOUTH-WEST 9 KT
3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: NIL
4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 987 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 30 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW): NIL
6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 280 SE: 295 SW: 0 NW: 0
7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1007 HPA / 700 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP
1.B FORECASTS (WINDS RADII IN KM):
12H: 2021/01/24 00 UTC: 21.8 S / 31.5 E, VENT MAX= 025 KT, OVERLAND
DEPRESSION
24H: 2021/01/24 12 UTC: 22.5 S / 30.0 E, VENT MAX= 020 KT, OVERLAND
DEPRESSION
36H: 2021/01/25 00 UTC: 23.1 S / 28.3 E, VENT MAX= 020 KT, OVERLAND
DEPRESSION
48H: 2021/01/25 12 UTC: 23.3 S / 26.4 E, VENT MAX= 015 KT, OVERLAND
DEPRESSION
60H: 2021/01/26 00 UTC: 23.5 S / 24.5 E, VENT MAX= 015 KT, OVERLAND
DEPRESSION
72H: 2021/01/26 12 UTC: 23.5 S / 22.6 E, VENT MAX= 015 KT,
DISSIPATING
2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK:
NIL
2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATION:
OVER THE LAST 6 HOURS, ELOISE HAS CONTINUED TO MOVE INLAND ACROSS
MOZAMBIQUE WITH DEEP CONVECTION THAT REMAINS WELL ORGANIZED AROUND
THE CENTER BUT THE CLOUD TOPS HAVE WARMED UP.
THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE ON A WEST-SOUTHWEST TRACK MOVING
ON THE NORTHWESTERN EDGE OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE LOCATED SOUTHEAST
OF MADAGASCAR. FROM MONDAY, THE REMNANTS OF ELOISE SHOULD DRIFT
WESTWARD, UNDER THE ACTION OF A NEW RIDGE ARRIVING FROM THE WEST.
ELOISE WILL CONTINUE TO GRADUALLY WEAKEN OVER LAND. CONVECTIVE
ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN NEAR THE CENTER UNTIL SUNDAY MORNING
BEFORE BECOMING MORE SPORADIC ON SUNDAY.
IN TERMS OF IMPACTS, THE REMNANTS OF ELOISE WILL AFFECT SEVERAL
SOUTHERN AFRICAN COUNTRIES MAINLY BY A RISK OF HEAVY RAINFALL DURING
THE NEXT 3 DAYS: HEAVY RAIN IS EXPECTED ALONG THE TRAJECTORY OF THE
SYSTEM, WITH ACCUMULATIONS OF ABOUT 100 MM IN 24 HOURS ON SUNDAY OVER
SOUTHERN ZIMBABWE AND NORTHEASTERN SOUTH AFRICA. HEAVY RAINFALL WILL
ALSO SPREAD SOUTHWARD ON MONDAY TOWARDS SOUTHERN MOZAMBIQUE AND
SWAZILAND (AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE SOUTH) AND WILL
ALSO REACH EASTERN BOTSWANA ON MONDAY AND TUESDAY (DIRECTLY RELATED
TO ELOISE REMNANTS).
THE INHABITANTS OF THE COUNTRIES AFFECTED BY THE RISK OF HEAVY RAINS
IN THE COMING DAYS ARE INVITED TO FOLLOW THE INSTRUCTIONS OF THE
LOCAL AUTHORITIES.=
NNNN

[cycloneye]

 https://twitter.com/WMO/status/1352944904931078146