Texas Winter 2020-2021

[Ralph's Weather]

https://i.imgur.com/4jTK8an.jpg

Looks like at best a few flakes as precip ends along the Red River. Just doesn't look like enough moisture will remain once the cold air gets here.

[Yukon Cornelius]

The storms weren’t near as strong as they had forecasted. Possibly due to the cool air and drizzle all day? Picked up 0.38” out of it. Not too bad.

The storms were further North than Expected, I had closer to 3/4 of an inch with close Lightning

They pretty much went right over the top of me, weather radio went nuts, phone apps went nuts with warnings. Turned out to be a few minutes of heavy rain. Im not complaining though. Severe weather is annoying.

[txtwister78]

Euro ENS has PNA headed into neutral and with that maybe some hope in the longer term? Active pattern continues but we need that PNA to come back to positive or neutral to give Texas a shot at some more fun and games before we call it on winter.

[Cpv17]

https://images.weatherbell.com/oscillation/ecmwf-ensemble-nhem-avg/pna/box/1611576000-4bHp2s2WzG0.png
https://images.weatherbell.com/model/ecmwf-ensemble-c00/conus/total_snow_10to1/1611576000/1612677600-c4RF6qfZkkw.png

Euro ENS has PNA headed into neutral and with that maybe some hope in the longer term? Active pattern continues but we need that PNA to come back to positive or neutral to give Texas a shot at some more fun and games before we call it on winter.

Give me a neutral PNA please. Don’t want a positive one. The east coast gets plenty of exciting weather events throughout the year.

[Brent]

https://images.weatherbell.com/oscillation/ecmwf-ensemble-nhem-avg/pna/box/1611576000-4bHp2s2WzG0.png
https://images.weatherbell.com/model/ecmwf-ensemble-c00/conus/total_snow_10to1/1611576000/1612677600-c4RF6qfZkkw.png

Euro ENS has PNA headed into neutral and with that maybe some hope in the longer term? Active pattern continues but we need that PNA to come back to positive or neutral to give Texas a shot at some more fun and games before we call it on winter.

Give me a neutral PNA please. Don’t want a positive one. The east coast gets plenty of exciting weather events throughout the year.

I thought neutral or slightly negative PNA was what we needed here

[cheezyWXguy]

I’ll take the rain. Severe weather is cool when it isn’t your car or house getting shredded.

That's how I feel. I understand the fascination with storms but don't care for severe weather.

That's the reason I don't visit this website during the Spring anymore. It's infuriating reading posters pining for severe weather. I mean, who says, "I really can't wait to track and see destructive storms that destroy homes, cars and lives. So cool!"

I don’t think I’ve ever seen a poster on this board say they can’t wait to see destruction. There is a certain duality to having an interest in weather, between fascination with rare, dramatic, unusual events and mindfulness of the impacts they have. Since there is nothing we can do to control the weather, I don’t see a problem in being fascinated by it, even if it causes harm. To those that wishcast even the most extreme outcomes, I find these posts more annoying in the sense that they aren’t of a scientific mindset than in the sense that their desired outcome could do harm, because they have no say in the outcome. The most we can do is inform others to heed warnings, tell them to listen to pros, give unofficial insight, and learn ourselves, and I think this board does a pretty good job of all of that.

[Cpv17]

https://images.weatherbell.com/oscillation/ecmwf-ensemble-nhem-avg/pna/box/1611576000-4bHp2s2WzG0.png
https://images.weatherbell.com/model/ecmwf-ensemble-c00/conus/total_snow_10to1/1611576000/1612677600-c4RF6qfZkkw.png

Euro ENS has PNA headed into neutral and with that maybe some hope in the longer term? Active pattern continues but we need that PNA to come back to positive or neutral to give Texas a shot at some more fun and games before we call it on winter.

Give me a neutral PNA please. Don’t want a positive one. The east coast gets plenty of exciting weather events throughout the year.

I thought neutral or slightly negative PNA was what we needed here

Slightly negative to slightly positive.

[gboudx]

That's how I feel. I understand the fascination with storms but don't care for severe weather.

That's the reason I don't visit this website during the Spring anymore. It's infuriating reading posters pining for severe weather. I mean, who says, "I really can't wait to track and see destructive storms that destroy homes, cars and lives. So cool!"

I don’t think I’ve ever seen a poster on this board say they can’t wait to see destruction. There is a certain duality to having an interest in weather, between fascination with rare, dramatic, unusual events and mindfulness of the impacts they have. Since there is nothing we can do to control the weather, I don’t see a problem in being fascinated by it, even if it causes harm. To those that wishcast even the most extreme outcomes, I find these posts more annoying in the sense that they aren’t of a scientific mindset than in the sense that their desired outcome could do harm, because they have no say in the outcome. The most we can do is inform others to heed warnings, tell them to listen to pros, give unofficial insight, and learn ourselves, and I think this board does a pretty good job of all of that.

I was being a bit sensational on purpose. Of course no one says they can’t wait to see destruction. But saying you can’t wait to see severe thunderstorms isn’t a far leap from it. They tend to go hand-in-hand. You usually don’t have severe thunderstorms without some kind of negative effect on someone, unless it happens over an extremely rural area. I get people are fascinated by weather and I used to be that way. But after Katrina and then having my house pummeled by tennis ball sized hail, that fascination is long gone. But that is why I bid the board farewell when Spring rolls around.

[Texas Snowman]

Looks like a strong tornado went through Fultondale, Ala. a couple of hours ago. Significant damage reports, mutual aid request to Birmingham, reports of some injuries, etc.

Tornadoes are bad, tornadoes at night are wretchedly awful.

Looks like the 2021 Dixie Alley severe weather season is now underway...

[Brent]

Looks like a strong tornado went through Fultondale, Ala. a couple of hours ago. Significant damage reports, mutual aid request to Birmingham, reports of some injuries, etc.

Tornadoes are bad, tornadoes at night are wretchedly awful.

Looks like the 2021 Dixie Alley severe weather season is now underway...

Interesting how it underperformed here but over there it's overperforming

Dixie Alley again

[orangeblood]

really nice looking 500mb chart at the end of last nights Euro Op run....watch for trends to hang more energy back across N. Mexico, if we can get that going we'll have something to discuss around here!!!

[bubba hotep]

Go from exciting times to doom and gloom just like that Gotta love it.

This isn't getting anyone hyped lol

https://i.ibb.co/vYfr8Gg/gfs-ens-z500a-Mean-namer-fh168-384.gif

GEFS and Euro EPS are in pretty good agreement that things won't get as bad as the models were showing last week. In fact, the pattern flips back pretty quickly and I wouldn't be surprised to see some winter wx threats showing up beyond the 7 - 10 day range.

https://i.ibb.co/YW9WzCq/12421gfs-ens-z500a-Norm-Mean-namer-fh168-384.gif

Ensembles are starting to sniff out some potential between Feb 5 - 7.

[Iceresistance]

really nice looking 500mb chart at the end of last nights Euro Op run....watch for trends to hang more energy back across N. Mexico, if we can get that going we'll have something to discuss around here!!!

https://images.weatherbell.com/model/ecmwf-deterministic/conus/z500_anom/1611619200/1612483200-naDBwLPHXr4.png

Even though that the Precip. is saying snow for Oklahoma at +240 Hours (No Image available because Pivotal Weather does not have a GIF for forecasts runs yet.)

[wxman57]

really nice looking 500mb chart at the end of last nights Euro Op run....watch for trends to hang more energy back across N. Mexico, if we can get that going we'll have something to discuss around here!!!

https://images.weatherbell.com/model/ecmwf-deterministic/conus/z500_anom/1611619200/1612483200-naDBwLPHXr4.png

Even though that the Precip. is saying snow for Oklahoma at +240 Hours (No Image available because Pivotal Weather does not have a GIF for forecasts runs yet.)

You can use MS Windows built-in "Windows Snipping Tool" to capture all or part of your screen and save an image from Pivotal Weather. Just do a search for Windows Snipping Tool. It's called "Snip & Sketch" on Windows 10. Here's the 240hr EC accumulated snow:

Special Note: I do not condone the movement of any cold air into Texas.

[Iceresistance]

really nice looking 500mb chart at the end of last nights Euro Op run....watch for trends to hang more energy back across N. Mexico, if we can get that going we'll have something to discuss around here!!!

https://images.weatherbell.com/model/ecmwf-deterministic/conus/z500_anom/1611619200/1612483200-naDBwLPHXr4.png

Even though that the Precip. is saying snow for Oklahoma at +240 Hours (No Image available because Pivotal Weather does not have a GIF for forecasts runs yet.)

You can use MS Windows built-in "Windows Snipping Tool" to capture all or part of your screen and save an image from Pivotal Weather. Just do a search for Windows Snipping Tool. It's called "Snip & Sketch" on Windows 10. Here's the 240hr EC accumulated snow:

Special Note: I do not condone the movement of any cold air into Texas.

http://wxman57.com/images/EC240.PNG

Thanks for the help!

EDIT: I did send a suggestion to Pivotal Weather for GIF model forecast & model trends. (Found out they are based in Norman, OK)

[TeamPlayersBlue]

Was coming in here to say the 5th of Feb needs to be watched closely. Orangeblood beat me to it! I'll be skiing in Crested Butte all next weekend, would be great to come home to this!

[Iceresistance]

Feburary 6th - Storm #1

Mixing possible in SE Texas, close to Houston

Feburary 9th - Storm #2

Snow in Oklahoma, west of US-69 (Except in NE Oklahoma)
Snow down to US-82/TX-59 & West of I-35 in Texas



Total Snowfall (Kuchera Ratio)

[orangeblood]

Feburary 6th - Storm #1

Mixing possible in SE Texas, close to Houston

Feburary 9th - Storm #2

Snow in Oklahoma, west of US-69 (Except in NE Oklahoma)
Snow down to US-82/TX-59 & West of I-35 in Texas

https://s2.gifyu.com/images/gfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_scus_fh234-360.gif

Total Snowfall (Kuchera Ratio)

https://s2.gifyu.com/images/Screenshot-2021-01-26-at-11.37.20-AM.png

Yep, phenomenal looking 500mb pattern during the latter half of the GFS OP run, even has a Strong PV collapsing into lower 48 towards the end of week 2...if this even come close to verifying, Winter can finally begin!!! Yes, we've had a few good winter storms but it's barely cracked 30F at DFW all winter

[Iceresistance]

Feburary 6th - Storm #1

Mixing possible in SE Texas, close to Houston

Feburary 9th - Storm #2

Snow in Oklahoma, west of US-69 (Except in NE Oklahoma)
Snow down to US-82/TX-59 & West of I-35 in Texas

https://s2.gifyu.com/images/gfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_scus_fh234-360.gif

Total Snowfall (Kuchera Ratio)

https://s2.gifyu.com/images/Screenshot-2021-01-26-at-11.37.20-AM.png

Yep, phenomenal looking 500mb pattern during the latter half of the GFS OP run, even has a Strong PV collapsing into lower 48 towards the end of week 2...if this even come close to verifying, Winter can finally begin!!! Yes, we've had a few good winter storms but it's barely cracked 30F at DFW all winter

I've had 3 snowstorms in December 2020 alone!

The only way for this to be possible is consistency with the models, this is key feature this winter.

[orangeblood]

Coldest 10-14 forecast I've seen on the GEFS all season....really active battle ground setting up as well!! A lot more freezing rain/sleet indicators showing up on several members as well, suggesting the potential for shallow cold/arctic air becoming more established. As opposed to the "top down" cooling that's been occurring most of this winter.