Texas Winter 2020-2021

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HockeyTx82
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Re: Texas Winter 2020-2021

#2301 Postby HockeyTx82 » Tue Jan 26, 2021 2:04 pm

orangeblood wrote:Coldest 10-14 forecast I've seen on the GEFS all season....really active battle ground setting up as well!! A lot more freezing rain/sleet indicators showing up on several members as well, suggesting the potential for shallow cold/arctic air becoming more established. As opposed to the "top down" cooling that's been occurring most of this winter.

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs-ens/2021012612/gfs-ens_T850aMean_us_10.png


So much for East Coast Bias.
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Re: Texas Winter 2020-2021

#2302 Postby Iceresistance » Tue Jan 26, 2021 2:09 pm

orangeblood wrote:Coldest 10-14 forecast I've seen on the GEFS all season....really active battle ground setting up as well!! A lot more freezing rain/sleet indicators showing up on several members as well, suggesting the potential for shallow cold/arctic air becoming more established. As opposed to the "top down" cooling that's been occurring most of this winter.

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs-ens/2021012612/gfs-ens_T850aMean_us_10.png


Greenland Block is a big factor for this, and it's looking like it's ready to spill into the CONUS. :eek:

Image
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Winter 2020-2021 :cold:

All observations are in Tecumseh, OK unless otherwise noted.

Winter posts are focused mainly for Oklahoma & Texas.

Take any of my forecasts with a grain of salt, refer to the NWS, SPC, and NHC for official information

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Re: Texas Winter 2020-2021

#2303 Postby orangeblood » Tue Jan 26, 2021 3:02 pm

Iceresistance wrote:
orangeblood wrote:Coldest 10-14 forecast I've seen on the GEFS all season....really active battle ground setting up as well!! A lot more freezing rain/sleet indicators showing up on several members as well, suggesting the potential for shallow cold/arctic air becoming more established. As opposed to the "top down" cooling that's been occurring most of this winter.

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs-ens/2021012612/gfs-ens_T850aMean_us_10.png


Greenland Block is a big factor for this, and it's looking like it's ready to spill into the CONUS. :eek:

https://s2.gifyu.com/images/gfs-ens_T850aMean_namer_12.png


Negative EPO!!! Until that ridge pops in Alaska, Greenland block alone won't force enough of that Arctic Air south. Need those two in tandem and we're in business!

Alaskan Ridge finally showing up in week 2
Image
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Re: Texas Winter 2020-2021

#2304 Postby gpsnowman » Tue Jan 26, 2021 3:55 pm

The return of winter or the arrival? Good posts today offering hope. Fab Feb on the way!!!!
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Re: Texas Winter 2020-2021

#2305 Postby harp » Tue Jan 26, 2021 4:07 pm

What a difference a week makes. You guys were throwing in the towel last week.
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Re: Texas Winter 2020-2021

#2306 Postby TeamPlayersBlue » Tue Jan 26, 2021 4:28 pm

harp wrote:What a difference a week makes. You guys were throwing in the towel last week.


This forum has to give up at least twice before we can have an actual winter ;) Hahahaha

Pattern looks almost perfect for a SE Tx snowstorm. Needs colder air though. The GFS has some in Canada but on that run, it holds it further north. Possible the GFS latches onto it later.

One thing, people in NTx should be happy about this as well. These troughs at 240 hours typically come in deeper than they actually do.
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Re: Texas Winter 2020-2021

#2307 Postby txtwister78 » Tue Jan 26, 2021 4:32 pm

Brent wrote:
Cpv17 wrote:
txtwister78 wrote:https://images.weatherbell.com/oscillation/ecmwf-ensemble-nhem-avg/pna/box/1611576000-4bHp2s2WzG0.png
https://images.weatherbell.com/model/ecmwf-ensemble-c00/conus/total_snow_10to1/1611576000/1612677600-c4RF6qfZkkw.png

Euro ENS has PNA headed into neutral and with that maybe some hope in the longer term? Active pattern continues but we need that PNA to come back to positive or neutral to give Texas a shot at some more fun and games before we call it on winter.


Give me a neutral PNA please. Don’t want a positive one. The east coast gets plenty of exciting weather events throughout the year.


:uarrow:

I thought neutral or slightly negative PNA was what we needed here


No you don't want a negative PNA. That's basically the pattern we've had for a few weeks. Negative PNA keeps the ridge across the south going and provides resistance to the cold and keeps it bottled up to the north. When we had snows in December and around the New Year we had a +PNA and a +EP0 (good blocking in Canada). NAO and AO staying negative is what makes this pattern interesting/active and not simply blowtorch/blah.

Another thing to note is the MJO might be moving into phase 8 as we move forward (colder phase for February). If we can get that rolling then were definitely in business again. Looking at one model run alone and saying look everyone -EPO or +PNA for that matter doesn't necessarily mean winter weather is a lock either. These things obviously fluctuate. I do think that with the continued active pattern in place (as I mentioned previously) and if we can get the ridge to get knocked down a bit (movement toward a neutral PNA or even slightly positive) then we can at least have something to track in terms of winter weather "hype" as opposed to what's in place now. Unfortunately, I also think we are setting the stage for more severe weather with this active pattern and clashes of colder air with warmer air to the south.
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Re: Texas Winter 2020-2021

#2308 Postby Iceresistance » Tue Jan 26, 2021 4:51 pm

txtwister78 wrote:
Brent wrote:
Cpv17 wrote:
Give me a neutral PNA please. Don’t want a positive one. The east coast gets plenty of exciting weather events throughout the year.


:uarrow:

I thought neutral or slightly negative PNA was what we needed here


No you don't want a negative PNA. That's basically the pattern we've had for a few weeks. Negative PNA keeps the ridge across the south going and provides resistance to the cold and keeps it bottled up to the north. When we had snows in December and around the New Year we had a +PNA and a +EP0 (good blocking in Canada). NAO and AO staying negative is what makes this pattern interesting/active and not simply blowtorch/blah.

Another thing to note is the MJO might be moving into phase 8 as we move forward (colder phase for February). If we can get that rolling then were definitely in business again. Looking at one model run alone and saying look everyone -EPO or +PNA for that matter doesn't necessarily mean winter weather is a lock either. These things obviously fluctuate. I do think that with the continued active pattern in place (as I mentioned previously) and if we can get the ridge to get knocked down a bit (movement toward a neutral PNA or even slightly positive) then we can at least have something to track in terms of winter weather "hype" as opposed to what's in place now. Unfortunately, I also think we are setting the stage for more severe weather with this active pattern and clashes of colder air with warmer air to the south.



Is it possible to have a Southern Plains Snowstorm with a Sub-Positive or Sub-Negative PNA?

(Sub-Positive/Sub-Negative means it's slightly away from Neutral)
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Winter 2020-2021 :cold:

All observations are in Tecumseh, OK unless otherwise noted.

Winter posts are focused mainly for Oklahoma & Texas.

Take any of my forecasts with a grain of salt, refer to the NWS, SPC, and NHC for official information

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Re: Texas Winter 2020-2021

#2309 Postby txtwister78 » Tue Jan 26, 2021 5:14 pm

Iceresistance wrote:
txtwister78 wrote:
Brent wrote:
:uarrow:

I thought neutral or slightly negative PNA was what we needed here


No you don't want a negative PNA. That's basically the pattern we've had for a few weeks. Negative PNA keeps the ridge across the south going and provides resistance to the cold and keeps it bottled up to the north. When we had snows in December and around the New Year we had a +PNA and a +EP0 (good blocking in Canada). NAO and AO staying negative is what makes this pattern interesting/active and not simply blowtorch/blah.

Another thing to note is the MJO might be moving into phase 8 as we move forward (colder phase for February). If we can get that rolling then were definitely in business again. Looking at one model run alone and saying look everyone -EPO or +PNA for that matter doesn't necessarily mean winter weather is a lock either. These things obviously fluctuate. I do think that with the continued active pattern in place (as I mentioned previously) and if we can get the ridge to get knocked down a bit (movement toward a neutral PNA or even slightly positive) then we can at least have something to track in terms of winter weather "hype" as opposed to what's in place now. Unfortunately, I also think we are setting the stage for more severe weather with this active pattern and clashes of colder air with warmer air to the south.



Is it possible to have a Southern Plains Snowstorm with a Sub-Positive or Sub-Negative PNA?

(Sub-Positive/Sub-Negative means it's slightly away from Neutral)


I think all the teleconnections play a role, so it's not necessarily just about one. If you want more true cold air entering the US (more arctic blasts), then you typically would like a -EPO, but having a ridge over TX is obviously different than having one across the NE or Mid Atlantic so it's OK to have a little resistance in between (that's why I said neutral PNA not bad) because you do want systems (lows) to move a little further south with available moisture to work with than just setting the stage for big arctic blasts that come in and scour out all the moisture. As long as the NAO and AO stay negative (active pattern) at least we still have a shot for something if we can get the other two in the ballpark to what is climatologically more favorable for TX.
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Re: Texas Winter 2020-2021

#2310 Postby Cpv17 » Tue Jan 26, 2021 5:30 pm

txtwister78 wrote:
Iceresistance wrote:
txtwister78 wrote:
No you don't want a negative PNA. That's basically the pattern we've had for a few weeks. Negative PNA keeps the ridge across the south going and provides resistance to the cold and keeps it bottled up to the north. When we had snows in December and around the New Year we had a +PNA and a +EP0 (good blocking in Canada). NAO and AO staying negative is what makes this pattern interesting/active and not simply blowtorch/blah.

Another thing to note is the MJO might be moving into phase 8 as we move forward (colder phase for February). If we can get that rolling then were definitely in business again. Looking at one model run alone and saying look everyone -EPO or +PNA for that matter doesn't necessarily mean winter weather is a lock either. These things obviously fluctuate. I do think that with the continued active pattern in place (as I mentioned previously) and if we can get the ridge to get knocked down a bit (movement toward a neutral PNA or even slightly positive) then we can at least have something to track in terms of winter weather "hype" as opposed to what's in place now. Unfortunately, I also think we are setting the stage for more severe weather with this active pattern and clashes of colder air with warmer air to the south.



Is it possible to have a Southern Plains Snowstorm with a Sub-Positive or Sub-Negative PNA?

(Sub-Positive/Sub-Negative means it's slightly away from Neutral)


I think all the teleconnections play a role, so it's not necessarily just about one. If you want more true cold air entering the US (more arctic blasts), then you typically would like a -EPO, but having a ridge over TX is obviously different than having one across the NE or Mid Atlantic so it's OK to have a little resistance in between (that's why I said neutral PNA not bad) because you do want systems (lows) to move a little further south with available moisture to work with than just setting the stage for big arctic blasts that come in and scour out all the moisture. As long as the NAO and AO stay negative (active pattern) at least we still have a shot for something if we can get the other two in the ballpark to what is climatologically more favorable for TX.


Yep! A neutral PNA is the sweet spot.
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Re: Texas Winter 2020-2021

#2311 Postby bubba hotep » Tue Jan 26, 2021 9:35 pm

The biggest issue that I currently see with the upcoming setup is that a lot of the model solutions are splitting the energy and we end up with a cutter to the Great Lakes. This leaves some energy back in the SW but it also gives us a positively tilted system, making it hard for the trailing energy to do anything.
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Winter time post are almost exclusively focused on the DFW area.

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Re: Texas Winter 2020-2021

#2312 Postby Yukon Cornelius » Tue Jan 26, 2021 9:50 pm

There’s a few here and there flurries up this way.
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Re: Texas Winter 2020-2021

#2313 Postby TeamPlayersBlue » Tue Jan 26, 2021 10:04 pm

Does anyone believe in the "bath tub slosh" theory? I remember JB talking about it a very long time ago.
When he brought it up, temps were VERY cold in Siberia and the PV was mostly on that side of the globe. In his 'Slosh' theory, he believes that temps cant stay cold or warm on one side forever, that there essentially would be a flip-flop in patterns. Lets hope this plays out. Temps have been brutally below normal in Siberia.
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Re: Texas Winter 2020-2021

#2314 Postby Cerlin » Tue Jan 26, 2021 10:11 pm

Looks like some halfway decent radar returns on the red river. Temps busted pretty bad over OKC today so I’m wondering if that was the same for Texas
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Re: Texas Winter 2020-2021

#2315 Postby Brent » Tue Jan 26, 2021 10:30 pm

Cerlin wrote:Looks like some halfway decent radar returns on the red river. Temps busted pretty bad over OKC today so I’m wondering if that was the same for Texas


Apparently graupel in Fort Worth
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Re: Texas Winter 2020-2021

#2316 Postby Iceresistance » Wed Jan 27, 2021 8:40 am

Brent wrote:
Cerlin wrote:Looks like some halfway decent radar returns on the red river. Temps busted pretty bad over OKC today so I’m wondering if that was the same for Texas


Apparently graupel in Fort Worth


I had snow from 1-2 AM this morning, relayed on the news at 6:30 AM (No, I was sleeping last night)
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Winter 2020-2021 :cold:

All observations are in Tecumseh, OK unless otherwise noted.

Winter posts are focused mainly for Oklahoma & Texas.

Take any of my forecasts with a grain of salt, refer to the NWS, SPC, and NHC for official information

Never say Never with weather! Because ANYTHING is possible!

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Re: Texas Winter 2020-2021

#2317 Postby Iceresistance » Wed Jan 27, 2021 8:52 am

Oh my Goodness, the true definition of a polar vortex in the 2nd week of February. :eek: :eek: :eek: :eek: :froze:

Image

Ridges at Greenland & Alaska by the time the Polar Vortex arrives. (Yes, Pivotal Weather has a Forecast GIF)

Image

Can Clearly see where the Polar Vortex in February is coming from (Near the North Pole at +240 hours & track on where it goes)

Image
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Bill 2015 & Beta 2020

Winter 2020-2021 :cold:

All observations are in Tecumseh, OK unless otherwise noted.

Winter posts are focused mainly for Oklahoma & Texas.

Take any of my forecasts with a grain of salt, refer to the NWS, SPC, and NHC for official information

Never say Never with weather! Because ANYTHING is possible!

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Re: Texas Winter 2020-2021

#2318 Postby HockeyTx82 » Wed Jan 27, 2021 10:35 am

Iceresistance wrote:Oh my Goodness, the true definition of a polar vortex in the 2nd week of February. :eek: :eek: :eek: :eek: :froze:

https://s2.gifyu.com/images/gfs_T2m_namer_fh168-384.gif

Ridges at Greenland & Alaska by the time the Polar Vortex arrives. (Yes, Pivotal Weather has a Forecast GIF)

https://s2.gifyu.com/images/floop-gfs-2021012706.500h_anom.na.gif

Can Clearly see where the Polar Vortex in February is coming from (Near the North Pole at +240 hours & track on where it goes)

https://s2.gifyu.com/images/gfs_T850a_namer_fh168-384.gif


It will shift east and Texas will go torch by runs tomorrow. Just saying I don't buy it. Seen this play out to many times only to have my heart broken.
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Re: Texas Winter 2020-2021

#2319 Postby Iceresistance » Wed Jan 27, 2021 10:53 am

HockeyTx82 wrote:
Iceresistance wrote:Oh my Goodness, the true definition of a polar vortex in the 2nd week of February. :eek: :eek: :eek: :eek: :froze:

https://s2.gifyu.com/images/gfs_T2m_namer_fh168-384.gif

Ridges at Greenland & Alaska by the time the Polar Vortex arrives. (Yes, Pivotal Weather has a Forecast GIF)

https://s2.gifyu.com/images/floop-gfs-2021012706.500h_anom.na.gif

Can Clearly see where the Polar Vortex in February is coming from (Near the North Pole at +240 hours & track on where it goes)

https://s2.gifyu.com/images/gfs_T850a_namer_fh168-384.gif


It will shift east and Texas will go torch by runs tomorrow. Just saying I don't buy it. Seen this play out to many times only to have my heart broken.


But, If it's consistant, then there is a chance.

The Noon Model runs have started, let's wait & see on what happens then.
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Bill 2015 & Beta 2020

Winter 2020-2021 :cold:

All observations are in Tecumseh, OK unless otherwise noted.

Winter posts are focused mainly for Oklahoma & Texas.

Take any of my forecasts with a grain of salt, refer to the NWS, SPC, and NHC for official information

Never say Never with weather! Because ANYTHING is possible!

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Re: Texas Winter 2020-2021

#2320 Postby HockeyTx82 » Wed Jan 27, 2021 11:05 am

Iceresistance wrote:
HockeyTx82 wrote:
Iceresistance wrote:Oh my Goodness, the true definition of a polar vortex in the 2nd week of February. :eek: :eek: :eek: :eek: :froze:

https://s2.gifyu.com/images/gfs_T2m_namer_fh168-384.gif

Ridges at Greenland & Alaska by the time the Polar Vortex arrives. (Yes, Pivotal Weather has a Forecast GIF)

https://s2.gifyu.com/images/floop-gfs-2021012706.500h_anom.na.gif

Can Clearly see where the Polar Vortex in February is coming from (Near the North Pole at +240 hours & track on where it goes)

https://s2.gifyu.com/images/gfs_T850a_namer_fh168-384.gif


It will shift east and Texas will go torch by runs tomorrow. Just saying I don't buy it. Seen this play out to many times only to have my heart broken.


But, If it's consistant, then there is a chance.

The Noon Model runs have started, let's wait & see on what happens then.


At this point I'll trust my weather rock over the models. The weather rock is always right.
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