Texas Winter 2020-2021

[Ntxw]

INSANE 0z GFS run, lots of snow

https://s2.gifyu.com/images/gfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_scus_fh192-306.gif

24-hour Snow Totals

https://s2.gifyu.com/images/gfs_asnow24_scus_fh186-294.gif

Temperature (Yes, Highs near Zero! )

https://s2.gifyu.com/images/gfs_T2m_scus_fh132-372.gif

Vs the 6z GFS model run, it's similar to the Crazy 0z but less cold & slightly less snow.

https://s2.gifyu.com/images/gfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_scus_fh186-312.gif

24-hour snowfall

https://s2.gifyu.com/images/gfs_asnow24_scus_fh180-324.gif

Temperature (Not as cold as it was on 0z)

https://s2.gifyu.com/images/gfs_T2m_scus_fh138-372.gif

We know how this goes. Models will show a strong front in the long range, slowly start to drop it in the middle, and bring it back in the short. Almost every time that’s how it works with these stronger fronts.

I wouldn't even say medium range loss. It's a one run difference from something really extreme.

[Portastorm]

At least in my mind (and more importantly), the ensembles are all consistent in showing a colder and stormier pattern beginning around February 5. Whether or it not it yields a winter weather event for Texas or not ... you gotta have the pattern change first.

[txtwister78]

Yeah that 0z run of the GFS should quickly be filed away under the "for our own amusement" category. Nice to look at graphic wise, but probably not going to happen. Look at all 3 global models and then apply a blend between the Canadian (warmest of the bunch which is shocking) Euro (still cold) and the much colder GFS. Ensembles are probably your best bet this far out as it relates to trends in either direction.

[Iceresistance]

Yeah that 0z run of the GFS should quickly be filed away under the "for our own amusement" category. Nice to look at graphic wise, but probably not going to happen. Look at all 3 global models and then apply a blend between the Canadian (warmer of the bunch which is shocking) Euro (still cold) and the much colder GFS. Ensembles are probably your best bet this far out as it relates to trends in either direction.

I've classified the 0z GFS run as "Aggressive"

The 6z run is more likely, the PNA is trending Neutral, but with the AO as EXTREMELY Negative by the time the storm arrives, I could have lows down to -5°F, something I've not encountered since the 2016-2017 Winter.

[Quixotic]

12z GFS has several promising SWs heading our way that just fade away about 50 miles away each time. lol

[Iceresistance]

12z GFS has several promising SWs heading our way that just fade away about 50 miles away each time. lol

The GFS Model Trolled us, of course . . .

EDIT: The Canadian High weakens as it gets closer in the 12z GFS, this setup requires this High Pressure area for Snow in the Southern Plains.

[Iceresistance]

When will some Models that will be in the game for the Next Storm:
ECMWF: 0z Jan 30th
NAM: 18z Feb. 3rd
HRRR: 0z Feb. 5th
ICON: 12z Feb. 1st or 18z Feb. 2nd

[HockeyTx82]

When will some Models that will be in the game for the Next Storm:
ECMWF: 0z Jan 30th
NAM: 18z Feb. 3rd
HRRR: 0z Feb. 5th
ICON: 12z Feb. 1st or 18z Feb. 2nd

Forgot one

Wxman57 : 0Z

[Iceresistance]

When will some Models that will be in the game for the Next Storm:
ECMWF: 0z Jan 30th
NAM: 18z Feb. 3rd
HRRR: 0z Feb. 5th
ICON: 12z Feb. 1st or 18z Feb. 2nd

Forgot one

Wxman57 : 0Z

Why him as a model?

[HockeyTx82]

When will some Models that will be in the game for the Next Storm:
ECMWF: 0z Jan 30th
NAM: 18z Feb. 3rd
HRRR: 0z Feb. 5th
ICON: 12z Feb. 1st or 18z Feb. 2nd

Forgot one

Wxman57 : 0Z

Why him as a model?

I see you just joined October 2020. He's always about hot weather. He likes cold so long as it snows, but it's a running respect of him and his knowledge he provides to the board.

[Iceresistance]

Forgot one

Wxman57 : 0Z

Why him as a model?

I see you just joined October 2020. He's always about hot weather. He likes cold so long as it snows, but it's a running respect of him and his knowledge he provides to the board.

He also hates Hurricanes, he built a wall of wind shear after Eta 2020 that expires in June 2021. And no other storm got past that wall over the Gulf of Mexico.

[wxman57]

He also hates Hurricanes, he built a wall of wind shear after Eta 2020 that expires in June 2021. And no other storm got past that wall over the Gulf of Mexico.

I don't necessarily hate hurricanes. I've been fascinated by them since I began to track hurricanes with my mother in 1961 (Carla). I manage a team of tropical forecasters. However, after breaking my wrist at the very peak of hurricane season then needing surgery on my shoulder, I needed a break in the storms so I could start to heal. I'll take the Gulf hurricane wall down next year, maybe. Need a rest season.

[Iceresistance]

Snow is back in the Forecast for my area in the 18z GFS model run, but this setup is different & not much snow. (Storm #2 Barely misses me)



Do want to mention that KWTV-News 9 is calling for a High of 26 next Sunday!

[Brent]

the Euro is close for Super Bowl Sunday


Actually it's not bad for the metro but there's a very sharp gradient nearby



it should be noted the GFS/CMC would just be cold and dry. The GFS tries to move snow in but in typical DFW fashion it dissipates

[HockeyTx82]

windy start, makes me wish I had some Rollerblades still. Used to get a sheet and have the wind pull me down the street when I wad a kid.

[rwfromkansas]

Poured for a bit this morning. Didn’t even know rain was in the forecast. Lol.

[Ntxw]

I would definitely not sleep on next weekend's winter storm potential, there may be a few in question. Systems involved is still way out there and timing/interaction can have vastly different outcomes.

We are definitely at a higher risk of ice storms given the pool of cold involved. It's a pretty decent Arctic outbreak coming.

[Cpv17]

Poured for a bit this morning. Didn’t even know rain was in the forecast. Lol.

Happens to me all the time. I’m gonna be honest, when the models bore me with nothing interesting on them after a few days I stop paying attention to them and don’t even really keep up much with the forecasts and then get caught off guard by minor events lol

[txtwister78]

I would definitely not sleep on next weekend's winter storm potential, there may be a few in question. Systems involved is still way out there and timing/interaction can have vastly different outcomes.

We are definitely at a higher risk of ice storms given the pool of cold involved. It's a pretty decent Arctic outbreak coming.

Man the placement of the arctic high has overrunning precip and some ice potential all over it (at least on this run). Maybe a little snow across the Northern/Central areas of the state? But timing and placement definitely key.

[Cpv17]

I would definitely not sleep on next weekend's winter storm potential, there may be a few in question. Systems involved is still way out there and timing/interaction can have vastly different outcomes.

We are definitely at a higher risk of ice storms given the pool of cold involved. It's a pretty decent Arctic outbreak coming.

https://images.weatherbell.com/model/gfs-ensemble-all-avg/conus/t2m_f_anom/1612008000/1612720800-IOADSJrRmpo.png
https://images.weatherbell.com/model/gfs-ensemble-all-avg/conus/t850/1612008000/1612720800-G9vjojgvoyc.png

Man the placement of the arctic high has overrunning precip and some ice potential all over it (at least on this run). Maybe a little snow across the Northern/Central areas of the state? But timing and placement definitely key.

Meh, not impressed.