Texas Winter 2020-2021

[txtwister78]

I would definitely not sleep on next weekend's winter storm potential, there may be a few in question. Systems involved is still way out there and timing/interaction can have vastly different outcomes.

We are definitely at a higher risk of ice storms given the pool of cold involved. It's a pretty decent Arctic outbreak coming.

https://images.weatherbell.com/model/gfs-ensemble-all-avg/conus/t2m_f_anom/1612008000/1612720800-IOADSJrRmpo.png
https://images.weatherbell.com/model/gfs-ensemble-all-avg/conus/t850/1612008000/1612720800-G9vjojgvoyc.png

Man the placement of the arctic high has overrunning precip and some ice potential all over it (at least on this run). Maybe a little snow across the Northern/Central areas of the state? But timing and placement definitely key.

Meh, not impressed.

Granted it's not going to be like December. Pattern not the same for TX in the precip category, but it doesn't take much to cause issues (especially if it's freezing rain).

[Brent]

Euro backed off the metro snow

OKC gets another half foot though

[Cpv17]

Euro backed off the metro snow

OKC gets another half foot though

The models are struggling with this system right now. Probably have to give it a few more days.

[txtwister78]

From FWD afternoon discussion

"There was no way around the need to introduce low snow or rain/snow mix chances for next Saturday night and into Sunday given the high potential for below normal temperatures, but it should be stressed in the strongest terms possible, that uncertainty is higher than normal for the forecast for next weekend. The message right now is to check back on the forecast as the week progresses, but what we can say right now is that below normal temperatures look likely, with at least some low possibility for frozen precipitation somewhere in the Southern Plains. Whether or not that has significant (or any) impacts on North and Central Texas remains to be seen".

[Brent]

From FWD afternoon discussion

"There was no way around the need to introduce low snow or rain/snow mix chances for next Saturday night and into Sunday given the high potential for below normal temperatures, but it should be stressed in the strongest terms possible, that uncertainty is higher than normal for the forecast for next weekend. The message right now is to check back on the forecast as the week progresses, but what we can say right now is that below normal temperatures look likely, with at least some low possibility for frozen precipitation somewhere in the Southern Plains. Whether or not that has significant (or any) impacts on North and Central Texas remains to be seen".

Wow that's pretty bullish for so far out

[Ntxw]

From FWD afternoon discussion

"There was no way around the need to introduce low snow or rain/snow mix chances for next Saturday night and into Sunday given the high potential for below normal temperatures, but it should be stressed in the strongest terms possible, that uncertainty is higher than normal for the forecast for next weekend. The message right now is to check back on the forecast as the week progresses, but what we can say right now is that below normal temperatures look likely, with at least some low possibility for frozen precipitation somewhere in the Southern Plains. Whether or not that has significant (or any) impacts on North and Central Texas remains to be seen".

Wow that's pretty bullish for so far out

The cliche saying strong HP EPO dumps have a disregard to the upper flow sometimes and due to the shallow dense leading edge of the cold air, it would not take much.

As we continue through the week if there is no trend deep cyclogenesis to the north northeast of us with the PVa then there will be higher risk of cold oozing right down the lee of the Rockies that models can miss.

[Iceresistance]

Euro backed off the metro snow

OKC gets another half foot though

Yikes! That is close to me!

[Iceresistance]

The GFS model is EXTREMELY CONSISTENT of a snowstorm north of I-40, it’s trending slightly south little by little. (The amounts, but not the Bullseye zone)

Sent from the Mobile version of S2K.

[HockeyTx82]

The sky is brown and I can't see the sun.......

Quite the day. Lots of homes in our neighborhood have roof damage. Odd, because the homes are only 5 years old at most, and the older homes seem fine.

[BrokenGlass]

The sky is brown and I can't see the sun.......

Quite the day. Lots of homes in our neighborhood have roof damage. Odd, because the homes are only 5 years old at most, and the older homes seem fine.

Yeah, ventured out to pick up dinner around 5.30, the skies had a post-apocalyptic feel for sure.


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Pro

[Iceresistance]

I’ve noticed something this winter

October: Active
November: Very inactive
December: Very active
January: Inactive
February: Active?

[Iceresistance]

The sky is brown and I can't see the sun.......

Quite the day. Lots of homes in our neighborhood have roof damage. Odd, because the homes are only 5 years old at most, and the older homes seem fine.

Sunny here.

What happened to the houses in Ponder?

On the S2K mobile version

[HockeyTx82]

The sky is brown and I can't see the sun.......

Quite the day. Lots of homes in our neighborhood have roof damage. Odd, because the homes are only 5 years old at most, and the older homes seem fine.

Sunny here.

What happened to the houses in Ponder?

On the S2K mobile version

IMO builder grade DR Horton roofs. The wind was relentless and lots of shingles were blown off or being ripped up and flapping around. Never seen wind like this.

[txtwister78]

This would be all kinds of trouble if it were to verify. Yes it's the ICON but definitely shows a classic overrunning situation with winds out of the NE draining in the arctic air with moisture overriding it from the SW. Can you say Ice..Ice baby. ICON has it moments. A bit surprised it's showing that much precip this far out as it usually has a "dry bias".

[txtwister78]

That's the Canadian we all know.... lol.

[Cpv17]

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gem/2021013100/gem_T2m_scus_35.png

That's the Canadian we all know.... lol.

Ok now that’s what I’m talking about!

[txtwister78]

Euro

[Cpv17]

https://images.weatherbell.com/model/ecmwf-deterministic/tx/t2m_f/1612051200/1612785600-lV68Knz2Gwk.png

Euro

Bring it on!! Gotta watch the strength/trajectory of that HP.

[wxman57]

From single digits predicted by the GFS in D-FW by the 8th, the overnight runs went mid to upper 20s for 00Z and low 40s at 12Z Monday for 06Z. Trend is for the cold air to push more east. Even though my shoulder still hurts, I was able to reinforce my Canadian wall a little last week. I added a diverter to shunt the colder air eastward.

[WinterMax]

I don't know anything but I think it's possible that the bulk of any artic air will gradually be modeled to slide east ever so slightly through the week, maybe just graze Texas and Louisiana.