Texas Winter 2020-2021

[Brent]

If we can't get snow with that pattern I give up

[Cerlin]

February is THE month to get snow in Texas. Thankfully it starts tomorrow.

[bubba hotep]

I can basically say with 100% certainty that Euro solution won't verify. It is very hard for Texas to get a big winter storm with lower heights across the Great Lakes. The 12z Euro run basically runs a cheat code by dropping a cutoff in the Pacific.



Then later in the run has it phase with a Northern Stream s/W.



Then after all of that they system probably shears out over the next 24hrs, so basically living just long enough to spring the big storm over Texas.

[bubba hotep]

With all of that said, the 18z Euro looks pretty similar to the 12z Euro through 90 hrs.

[Haris]

With all of that said, the 18z Euro looks pretty similar to the 12z Euro through 90 hrs.

And the 12z cmc and 18z icon FWIW

[Brent]

Euro so far dry cold on Sunday

Some very very light mixed precip on Monday but temps are pretty warm some flurries appear east of DFW at night

the Tuesday/Wednesday storm is now a couple flurries in Central Texas

[Iceresistance]

The GFS has been on a warming trend since last week, but might squeeze out some snow next week.

[Cpv17]

The GFS has been on a warming trend since last week, but might squeeze out some snow next week.

Man, I thought the PNA wasn’t supposed to go that far positive to allow that to happen.

[Iceresistance]

The GFS has been on a warming trend since last week, but might squeeze out some snow next week.

Man, I thought the PNA wasn’t supposed to go that far positive to allow that to happen.

The PNA is more neutral when it comes in, it's the NAO that is turned Neutral/Sub-positive

[Iceresistance]

The 0z Canadian model is saying 16 inches of snow for me! (From 2 storms)

(I'm feeling very bad for Y'all down in Texas for not having the winter fun when I do.)



0z Euro has a very broad area of snow for most of Texas with pockets of 1-2 inches, up to .5 inch elsewhere

[Cpv17]

I’ll always say we need the cold air first and we can work on the precip part later. Not liking these east trends on the models but still hopeful it can go back west.

[Iceresistance]

GFS is having consistency issues compared to last week, which can be either a bad thing or good thing.

The good thing is that it's now trending with a new storm towards the south
The bad thing is that it will change, hopefully it trends colder or further south.

[orangeblood]

I’ll always say we need the cold air first and we can work on the precip part later. Not liking these east trends on the models but still hopeful it can go back west.

Yep, spot on! Particularly with a setup like this, look for cold first. With this setup, some models almost always underestimate the shallow cold particularly the GFS. The Air forecast this weekend is originating North of the Arctic Circle in Northern Siberia and is then reinforced by air in Northern Canada early next week. It's usually underestimated in both magnitude and longevity, sticking around longer than models believe. Getting a system to come out of Northern Mexico, allowing the Arctic HP to stay entrenched longer/pulling up Baja moisture/creating an overrunning event, is key to a setup like this

[orangeblood]

12Z GFS breaks towards other globals, cutting off a ULL off SoCal...good trend!

[harp]

The 0z Canadian model is saying 16 inches of snow for me! (From 2 storms)

(I'm feeling very bad for Y'all down in Texas for not having the winter fun when I do.)

https://s2.gifyu.com/images/floop-gdps-2021020100.snku_acc.us_sc.gif

0z Euro has a very broad area of snow for most of Texas with pockets of 1-2 inches, up to .5 inch elsewhere

https://s2.gifyu.com/images/floop-ecmwf_full-2021020100.sn10_acc.us_sc.gif

Wait a minute.... the bottom graphic shows snow all the way into south Louisiana??

[Iceresistance]

The 0z Canadian model is saying 16 inches of snow for me! (From 2 storms)

(I'm feeling very bad for Y'all down in Texas for not having the winter fun when I do.)

https://s2.gifyu.com/images/floop-gdps-2021020100.snku_acc.us_sc.gif

0z Euro has a very broad area of snow for most of Texas with pockets of 1-2 inches, up to .5 inch elsewhere

https://s2.gifyu.com/images/floop-ecmwf_full-2021020100.sn10_acc.us_sc.gif

Wait a minute.... the bottom graphic shows snow all the way into south Louisiana??

I just noticed it! Also into the Gulf!

[harp]

The 0z Canadian model is saying 16 inches of snow for me! (From 2 storms)

(I'm feeling very bad for Y'all down in Texas for not having the winter fun when I do.)

https://s2.gifyu.com/images/floop-gdps-2021020100.snku_acc.us_sc.gif

0z Euro has a very broad area of snow for most of Texas with pockets of 1-2 inches, up to .5 inch elsewhere

https://s2.gifyu.com/images/floop-ecmwf_full-2021020100.sn10_acc.us_sc.gif

Wait a minute.... the bottom graphic shows snow all the way into south Louisiana??

I just noticed it! Also into the Gulf!

What model is this?

[Iceresistance]

Wait a minute.... the bottom graphic shows snow all the way into south Louisiana??

I just noticed it! Also into the Gulf!

What model is this?

The bottom Graphic was the 0z Euro (ECMWF)

[bubba hotep]

12Z GFS breaks towards other globals, cutting off a ULL off SoCal...good trend!

That is how we would get it to work. However, the GFS is more progressive with the northern stream than the 12z Euro from yesterday. So by the time the cutoff moves in it is too warm for winter wx across TX.

[wxman57]

12Z GFS & 00Z Euro are completely different as far as weather for TX next Tuesday. GFS has a strong low over east-central TX 12Z Tuesday. Strong south wind across east TX & LA ahead of this low (warm temps). Euro has the front way out in the Gulf with strong NE-ENE winds along the coast. Relatively dry across TX.