Texas Winter 2020-2021

[bubba hotep]

Interesting model temp battle for Sunday afternoon. GFS & Euro have DFW in the 40s while GFS-P, CMC, & UK have temps below freezing

[orangeblood]

Interesting model temp battle for Sunday afternoon. GFS & Euro have DFW in the 40s while GFS-P, CMC, & UK have temps below freezing

It really is...just highlights the uncertainty with extremely shallow arctic airmasses. Looking at the model printouts, it's even more shocking b/w the Euro and CMC...you have 30-40 Deg F differentials

[Iceresistance]

0z GFS



Snowfall (Oklahoma always gets more fun than Y'all down there, I feel bad for you)



Ice totals



0z ECMWF (Euro) wants the storm to arrive later next week.

[Iceresistance]

0z CFS (Ultra-long range model) wants a Texas & Oklahoma Snowstorm early next week.

[bubba hotep]

One thing of note from the overnight models, the cutoff low now drifts far enough west to get pushed out to sea and dissipate. Without that feature coming back east, it's very hard to get winter wx across TX with the TPV parked over the Great Lakes.

[TropicalTundra]

0z CFS (Ultra-long range model) wants a Texas & Oklahoma Snowstorm early next week.

Most long-range models like the CFS generally start to struggle when trying to predict the weather patterns. One day it could be showing a blizzard and the next day it has highs in the 80s (perfect swimming temperature )

[Iceresistance]

0z CFS (Ultra-long range model) wants a Texas & Oklahoma Snowstorm early next week.

https://s2.gifyu.com/images/prateptype_cat.conus.png

Most long-range models like the CFS generally start to struggle when trying to predict the weather patterns. One day it could be showing a blizzard and the next day it has highs in the 80s (perfect swimming temperature )

I don't trust the model anyway, but I had to show it because the amount of snow goes from Austin to Springfield, MO.

[wxman57]

Overnight runs of the GFS & Canadian backed away from winter weather across TX next Tuesday and are closer to the Euro, which I mentioned was quite different yesterday. None of the models is handling the progressive pattern well. Euro may be best, though. 00Z Euro has trace amounts across TX through day 10. Nothing until late next week. I've found that predicted amounts less than an inch on these plots (the gray areas) usually means no snow. Canadian and GFS have nothing in the way of snow for the next 10 days. With the current pattern, I wouldn't trust any of the models beyond 2-3 days. If they still show snow within that time period, then it's more likely.

Also, I notice that the 00Z GFS had upper teens for D-FW Saturday, the 13th. 06Z run has lower 30s. Again, progressive pattern isn't handled well by models.

[rwfromkansas]

With these flip-flops, caution is warranted. Our window will rapidly close over the next few weeks, so if something doesn't happen soon, it will be time to call the time of death.

[Quixotic]

From the Old School of Weather Forecasting:

A lot of dark-eyed Juncos are around our yard. They were here for the chilly stretch in December when everybody but DFW cashed in. They've been gone for January but are back in force for the start of February.

[Iceresistance]

With these flip-flops, caution is warranted. Our window will rapidly close over the next few weeks, so if something doesn't happen soon, it will be time to call the time of death.

What about March?

[starsfan65]

With these flip-flops, caution is warranted. Our window will rapidly close over the next few weeks, so if something doesn't happen soon, it will be time to call the time of death.

It is just the overnight runs. These next runs could say something different.

[txtwister78]

Is anyone experiencing issues while attempting to login from the desktop? Keep getting an error message. Ok when I login from my phone.

[TexasBreeze]

Clear the cache and browser cookies. May help? It fixed my issues yesterday, but on a phone though.

[rwfromkansas]

With these flip-flops, caution is warranted. Our window will rapidly close over the next few weeks, so if something doesn't happen soon, it will be time to call the time of death.

What about March?

It could happen, but hoping for March is usually not a good bet for Texas. OK, sure.

[txtwister78]

:uarrow: Clear the cache and browser cookies. May help? It fixed my issues yesterday, but on a phone though.

Yeah I tried clearing the cookies. I can try the cache or use a different browser and see if that works. Thanks.

Edit...worked using chrome.

[Yukon Cornelius]

From the Old School of Weather Forecasting:

A lot of dark-eyed Juncos are around our yard. They were here for the chilly stretch in December when everybody but DFW cashed in. They've been gone for January but are back in force for the start of February.

Squirrels have been gathering like crazy the last few days and my holly bushes are being swarmed recently by birds.

[txtwister78]

Models continue to struggle with the arctic air. 0Z run compared to the 12z run of the CMC. GFS says "what arctic air". Lol. GFS ENS are a little colder (5-7 degrees) than the operational FWIW but definitely not anything that stands out.

[Ralph's Weather]

With these flip-flops, caution is warranted. Our window will rapidly close over the next few weeks, so if something doesn't happen soon, it will be time to call the time of death.

What about March?

It could happen, but hoping for March is usually not a good bet for Texas. OK, sure.

We have had some of our best winter events in March and as late as early April. Recent years have trended towards longer winters with frozen precip in recent years in N TX from before Thanksgiving through Easter.

[txtwister78]

The optimist in me.....12z GFS ENS and 0Z CMC ENS for Tues/Wed/Thurs timeframe. If we can get the PNA back to a neutral or slightly positive look then at least we have something that bears watching going forward in my opinion (typically a wetter pattern for our region). The Euro control (0Z run) had a nice winter storm also for this time period next week with the PNA trending positive (operational also). Unfortunately we keep pushing back our time window (just beyond day 7) so obviously not a high confidence prediction but at least there is some consensus between the models toward a more active looking pattern that might deliver some winter precip next week. Beyond that I wouldn't even bother.