Texas Winter 2020-2021

[bubba hotep]

One thing of note from the overnight models, the cutoff low now drifts far enough west to get pushed out to sea and dissipate. Without that feature coming back east, it's very hard to get winter wx across TX with the TPV parked over the Great Lakes.

12z models continue the trend of rotating the cutoff NW out into the Pacific. Still some ensemble support for the comeback east and cause a storm but the door is closing pretty quickly.

[orangeblood]

One thing of note from the overnight models, the cutoff low now drifts far enough west to get pushed out to sea and dissipate. Without that feature coming back east, it's very hard to get winter wx across TX with the TPV parked over the Great Lakes.

12z models continue the trend of rotating the cutoff NW out into the Pacific. Still some ensemble support for the comeback east and cause a storm but the door is closing pretty quickly.

Yep, not looking good, that cutoff is a big piece of this puzzle . Plus Alaskan ridge (EPO) is in the wrong position, heights are too low in the Yukon

[starsfan65]

One thing of note from the overnight models, the cutoff low now drifts far enough west to get pushed out to sea and dissipate. Without that feature coming back east, it's very hard to get winter wx across TX with the TPV parked over the Great Lakes.

12z models continue the trend of rotating the cutoff NW out into the Pacific. Still some ensemble support for the comeback east and cause a storm but the door is closing pretty quickly.

Yep, not looking good, that cutoff is a big piece of this puzzle . Plus Alaskan ridge (EPO) is in the wrong position, heights are too low in the Yukon

Don't give up hope!!

[gpsnowman]

Year after year my GD weather heartstrings are pulled relentlessly. Can't take much more. Imagine living in DFW with no more winter weather. I've got to move after becoming an empty nester. Let's see what the wife says.

[HockeyTx82]

Year after year my GD weather heartstrings are pulled relentlessly. Can't take much more. Imagine living in DFW with no more winter weather. I've got to move after becoming an empty nester. Let's see what the wife says.

I've got a 5 and 3 year old so I'm stuck for the foreseeable future.

[orangeblood]

One thing that stands out in the 7-10 day is the Arctic HP Express train lined up from the Arctic circle directly down into the lower 48, the amount of blocking over the pole looks outstanding...plenty of cold air close by to tap into!!!!

[txtwister78]

Not a bad look. One thing to note that I'm seeing on the models (including ENS) is low pressure developing around the lakes Friday and getting pulled up into the PV. Just with that natural progression/disruption watch how HP builds again over eastern Canada and Greenland and forces the cold to build further west in a more favorable delivery area for us next week. Hopefully this is a trend. The 12z euro control/ENS continues to point to Wed/Thurs of next wk. Definitely not the time to throw in the towel yet folks with that signal.

[Portastorm]

Oh yeah ... the 12z Euro looks mighty cold for Texas and a lot of other areas for later next week.

[Iceresistance]

Not a bad look. One thing to note that I'm seeing on the models (including ENS) is low pressure developing around the lakes Friday and getting pulled up into the PV. Just with that natural progression/disruption watch how HP builds again over eastern Canada and Greenland and forces the cold to build further west in a more favorable delivery area for us next week. Hopefully this is a trend. The 12z euro control/ENS continues to point to Wed/Thurs of next wk. Definitely not the time to throw in the towel yet folks with that signal.

https://images.weatherbell.com/model/ecmwf-ensemble-c00/conus/t2m_c_anom/1612267200/1612980000-3ru8g9HmHx0.png
https://images.weatherbell.com/model/ecmwf-ensemble-c00/conus/t850_mslp_prcp6hr/1612267200/1613001600-Wa45rz6x68g.png

Several Models are not giving up on ANY chance of snow next week, maybe this storm is waiting for the PNA to be Neutral . . .

[txtwister78]

Not a bad look. One thing to note that I'm seeing on the models (including ENS) is low pressure developing around the lakes Friday and getting pulled up into the PV. Just with that natural progression/disruption watch how HP builds again over eastern Canada and Greenland and forces the cold to build further west in a more favorable delivery area for us next week. Hopefully this is a trend. The 12z euro control/ENS continues to point to Wed/Thurs of next wk. Definitely not the time to throw in the towel yet folks with that signal.

https://images.weatherbell.com/model/ecmwf-ensemble-c00/conus/t2m_c_anom/1612267200/1612980000-3ru8g9HmHx0.png
https://images.weatherbell.com/model/ecmwf-ensemble-c00/conus/t850_mslp_prcp6hr/1612267200/1613001600-Wa45rz6x68g.png

Several Models are not giving up on ANY chance of snow next week, maybe this storm is waiting for the PNA to be Neutral . . .

With that much blocking over the top better odds of getting something to cut underneath with the cold air in place (neutral to positive PNA signal hopefully by then). Not a guarantee obviously but at least we live to fight another week.

[Iceresistance]

Not a bad look. One thing to note that I'm seeing on the models (including ENS) is low pressure developing around the lakes Friday and getting pulled up into the PV. Just with that natural progression/disruption watch how HP builds again over eastern Canada and Greenland and forces the cold to build further west in a more favorable delivery area for us next week. Hopefully this is a trend. The 12z euro control/ENS continues to point to Wed/Thurs of next wk. Definitely not the time to throw in the towel yet folks with that signal.

https://images.weatherbell.com/model/ecmwf-ensemble-c00/conus/t2m_c_anom/1612267200/1612980000-3ru8g9HmHx0.png
https://images.weatherbell.com/model/ecmwf-ensemble-c00/conus/t850_mslp_prcp6hr/1612267200/1613001600-Wa45rz6x68g.png

Several Models are not giving up on ANY chance of snow next week, maybe this storm is waiting for the PNA to be Neutral . . .

With that much blocking over the top better odds of getting something to cut underneath with the cold air in place (neutral to positive PNA signal hopefully by then). Not a guarantee obviously but at least we live to fight another week.

The PNA is trending Neutral, it's the NAO that is Positive right now.

[Iceresistance]

12z GFS wants double Arctic blasts within 7 days of each other

Arctic Blast #1 (2.11.2021)



Arctic Blast #2 (2.18.2021)



The first one is more modified than the second one

[txtwister78]

Several Models are not giving up on ANY chance of snow next week, maybe this storm is waiting for the PNA to be Neutral . . .

With that much blocking over the top better odds of getting something to cut underneath with the cold air in place (neutral to positive PNA signal hopefully by then). Not a guarantee obviously but at least we live to fight another week.

The PNA is trending Neutral, it's the NAO that is Positive right now.

The NAO is negative (at times on steroids) and has been negative for most of the winter?

[Iceresistance]

With that much blocking over the top better odds of getting something to cut underneath with the cold air in place (neutral to positive PNA signal hopefully by then). Not a guarantee obviously but at least we live to fight another week.

The PNA is trending Neutral, it's the NAO that is Positive right now.

The NAO is negative (at times on steroids) and has been negative for most of the winter?

Since Late December, but it's neutral right now.

[txtwister78]

The PNA is trending Neutral, it's the NAO that is Positive right now.

The NAO is negative (at times on steroids) and has been negative for most of the winter?

Since Late December, but it's neutral right now.

https://s2.gifyu.com/images/nao.sprd29ef3dd8107a6dbfc.gif

My bad was thinking about the AO. NAO not as negative.

[Iceresistance]

The NAO is negative (at times on steroids) and has been negative for most of the winter?

Since Late December, but it's neutral right now.

https://s2.gifyu.com/images/nao.sprd29ef3dd8107a6dbfc.gif

My bad was thinking about the AO. NAO not as negative.

Can't blame you if you think about one thing & say something else, this happens to me a lot .

The AO is EXTREMELY Negative for sure

[Iceresistance]

Why are several models saying 'What snow?' when the PNA is turning Neutral?

[rwfromkansas]

It still looks like things will get colder, which is step 1. Relieved it isn't the torch month it looked like previously. I want some actual winter cold, even if it doesn't snow.

[wxman57]

There are vast differences between the 12Z GFS & Euro. GFS is much colder for Thu-Sat of next week. Euro has mid 30s where the GFS has teens for D-FW. Euro does indicate a possible hard freeze for D-FW at day 10 next Friday. No model indicates any significant snow for the next 10 days in the D-FW area or southwest. Might as well be in the 80s so I can get back to riding. Shoulder surgeon gave me the "OK" yesterday to do just about anything. If it's too cold to bike, I'll just have to continue working on my Canadian cold air wall.

[Haris]

12z GFS wants double Arctic blasts within 7 days of each other

Arctic Blast #1 (2.11.2021)

[url]https://s2.gifyu.com/images/sfct.conus.png[/url

Arctic Blast #2 (2.18.2021)

[url]https://s2.gifyu.com/images/sfct.conus2b36e2f027a49266.png[/url

The first one is more modified than the second one

These models right now are so volatile that I'd recommend not to be hung up on what they are showing exactly. The timing and intensity keeps changing. So is the precip. Just have to be patient.