Texas Winter 2020-2021

[InfernoFlameCat]

18z GFS says, "Let's do two winter wx events in two weeks!" All kidding aside, the system we were tacking may have folded but there should be some other chances with cold air over the top and an active flow off the Pacific.

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs/2021020218/gfs_asnow_scus_65.png

When the model shows a sharp line between snow and no snow, like it does here across Alabama, it is essentially an error in the model run.

[Cpv17]

6z GFS is crazy. It has a 1050mb high as far south as Kansas but yet the model doesn’t has us getting nearly as cold as you think it would with that setup.

[Texas Snow]

I woke up to see if the NWS lowered Sunday from 44 only to see they had raised it to 54.

[HockeyTx82]

I woke up to see if the NWS lowered Sunday from 44 only to see they had raised it to 54.

That's a stout arctic front better make a run to the store for groceries before word gets out. Thanks for heads up.

[gpsnowman]

I woke up to see if the NWS lowered Sunday from 44 only to see they had raised it to 54.

Crazy isn't it? No more 20's either. Just a couple days ago the low on Monday was mid 20s now I just saw 43.Brrrrrr.

[Cpv17]

Guys, the real cold probably isn’t going to happen till the middle of next week. Models are having fits right now trying to figure out the teleconnections.

[Iceresistance]

GFS-Para is out since Yesterday.

From Pivotal Weather

GFSv16 and HRW FV3 data have been unavailable since 12z due to NCEP data flow problems. We are not aware of an ETA from NCEP.

[Iceresistance]

If there is going to be no snow, there is the cold!

Midnight CMC is crazy low for Temperatures (Yes, near Zero in Dallas )




6z GFS is also nasty cold, but it's short-lived.

[HockeyTx82]

:uarrow: Guys, the real cold probably isn’t going to happen till the middle of next week. Models are having fits right now trying to figure out the teleconnections.

And just a few days ago Sunday was the day. It seems it shows up, slides east/modifies then shows up again a few days later only to repeat.

Looks if it happens it happens, and while I'm all for a cold and snowy day I just don't buy it with the recent trends.

I mean come on single digits? Could it, yes. Will it? When was the last time the models showed that extreme and it actually happened?

When 2011 happened at what point did we buy in?

[Ralph's Weather]

:uarrow: Guys, the real cold probably isn’t going to happen till the middle of next week. Models are having fits right now trying to figure out the teleconnections.

And just a few days ago Sunday was the day. It seems it shows up, slides east/modifies then shows up again a few days later only to repeat.

Looks if it happens it happens, and while I'm all for a cold and snowy day I just don't buy it with the recent trends.

I mean come on single digits? Could it, yes. Will it? When was the last time the models showed that extreme and it actually happened?

When 2011 happened at what point did we buy in?

Last single digits was 2017, got down to 6 here. I don't recall how the models looked leading up to it though.

[TropicalTundra]

If there is going to be no snow, there is the cold!

Midnight CMC is crazy low for Temperatures (Yes, near Zero in Dallas )




6z GFS is also nasty cold, but it's short-lived.

That would beat the coldest temperature in my city on Feb. 13 by 15 degrees. Haven't seen single digit temperatures in a while.

[South Texas Storms]

:uarrow: Guys, the real cold probably isn’t going to happen till the middle of next week. Models are having fits right now trying to figure out the teleconnections.

And just a few days ago Sunday was the day. It seems it shows up, slides east/modifies then shows up again a few days later only to repeat.

Looks if it happens it happens, and while I'm all for a cold and snowy day I just don't buy it with the recent trends.

I mean come on single digits? Could it, yes. Will it? When was the last time the models showed that extreme and it actually happened?

When 2011 happened at what point did we buy in?

I'm pretty confident that we will eventually get quite cold...likely sometime in the next 10 days. There's just too much cold air to our north...we should get at least one or two chunks of it. I'm more worried that we may be too cold so that it's dry and we miss out on a decent chance for frozen precipitation.

[Iceresistance]

The CPC has not yet made latest Observations on the Oscillations since the 1st of this month . . .

[Iceresistance]

KFOR-News 4 in OKC has put out this forecast . . .




The EPO is likely going to be Negative for this forecast to work.

[bubba hotep]

Dry cold is a no go for me lol

If it's not going to snow then give me upper 50's for highs and lows in the low 40s to upper 30s.

[gpsnowman]

Dry cold is a no go for me lol

If it's not going to snow then give me upper 50's for highs and lows in the low 40s to upper 30s.

Gimmie some cold!! I get it though, would be nice to have some snow on the ground if we have any below freezing days.

[Iceresistance]

Just got the 9 Day forecast from KWTV-News 9 at 9 AM.

Once the Temperatures get down to the 20s as highs next week, it STAYS like that for a while.

[orangeblood]

What a fascinating but difficult week coming up for winter weather forecasters/enthusiasts....the location of that Arctic boundary is going to be hell to deal with. Could see 20-30 deg temp busts from 2-3 days out!!

Does anyone know how the German Model handles shallow Arctic airmasses ?? Look at the difference b/w it and the other Globals for Sunday Noon...what's a 38 Deg F temp difference amongst friends

[txtwister78]

Regarding the potential for cold next week..... this is where models will struggle. Look at the 12z incoming GFS and how it tries to stall the progression of the arctic boundary into Texas for almost a full day. That's not happening with that much cold air and so there is a big bust potential in terms of how soon and how cold we get should the pattern evolve the way I think it will in terms of the threat for significant cold. My guess is we get colder faster than what some of the operational models are hinting at.

[txtwister78]

The flood gates finally open by Wednesday afternoon.