Texas Winter 2020-2021

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orangeblood
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Re: Texas Winter 2020-2021

#2561 Postby orangeblood » Wed Feb 03, 2021 11:29 am

Yikes, 1060 Plus HP ALERT on latest GFS!!! :double:

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Re: Texas Winter 2020-2021

#2562 Postby South Texas Storms » Wed Feb 03, 2021 11:36 am

Snow stretching from Mexico to NC on the 12z GFS in 10 days. Wow that image needs to go in the winter model hall of fame! :lol:
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Re: Texas Winter 2020-2021

#2563 Postby gpsnowman » Wed Feb 03, 2021 11:37 am

orangeblood wrote:Yikes, 1060 Plus HP ALERT on latest GFS!!! :double:

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs/2021020312/gfs_mslpaNorm_us_37.png

Damn that is one good-looking HP.
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Re: Texas Winter 2020-2021

#2564 Postby Haris » Wed Feb 03, 2021 11:37 am

Hour 240 again :roll: . Wish it was like hour 144 at least
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Re: Texas Winter 2020-2021

#2565 Postby Iceresistance » Wed Feb 03, 2021 11:43 am

South Texas Storms wrote:Snow stretching from Mexico to NC on the 12z GFS in 10 days. Wow that image needs to go in the winter model hall of fame! :lol:


Similar to the size of the Storm of the Century in 1993 with the amount of snow
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Winter 2020-2021 :cold:

All observations are in Tecumseh, OK unless otherwise noted.

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Re: Texas Winter 2020-2021

#2566 Postby Iceresistance » Wed Feb 03, 2021 11:44 am

orangeblood wrote:Yikes, 1060 Plus HP ALERT on latest GFS!!! :double:

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs/2021020312/gfs_mslpaNorm_us_37.png


That thing is STRONG! More snow for the Southern Plains for sure!
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Bill 2015 & Beta 2020

Winter 2020-2021 :cold:

All observations are in Tecumseh, OK unless otherwise noted.

Winter posts are focused mainly for Oklahoma & Texas.

Take any of my forecasts with a grain of salt, refer to the NWS, SPC, and NHC for official information

Never say Never with weather! Because ANYTHING is possible!

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Re: Texas Winter 2020-2021

#2567 Postby PTrackerLA » Wed Feb 03, 2021 11:44 am

What the...I've never seen a GFS run this cold down to the coast.

Image
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Re: Texas Winter 2020-2021

#2568 Postby orangeblood » Wed Feb 03, 2021 11:45 am

South Texas Storms wrote:Snow stretching from Mexico to NC on the 12z GFS in 10 days. Wow that image needs to go in the winter model hall of fame! :lol:


Yep, not going to find many better runs from the GFS than that one (might be the best one I've personally seen inside 240 hrs)....below freezing temps for 150 plus hrs with Moderate Snow/temps in high teens for DFW next Saturday!
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Re: Texas Winter 2020-2021

#2569 Postby InfernoFlameCat » Wed Feb 03, 2021 11:47 am

Its beautiful. Too bad it won't likely happen. I would love to eat these words however. :D
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Re: Texas Winter 2020-2021

#2570 Postby Ntxw » Wed Feb 03, 2021 11:48 am

I mean we are looking potentially record breaking -AO. Something close to -6 SD which is absurd. As mentioned before, there is no real consistency of late from the guidance and swings of extremes to holding it up has been happening.

But one thing is consistent, every now and then we get a crazy run from a model (not just 1) but each one of them have shown something wild at one point. I still believe something in the lines of 1985 Jan-Feb is possible. Where you have a fantastic AO and somewhat ok Pacific.
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Re: Texas Winter 2020-2021

#2571 Postby Iceresistance » Wed Feb 03, 2021 11:53 am

Ntxw wrote:I mean we are looking potentially record breaking -AO. Something close to -6 SD which is absurd. As mentioned before, there is no real consistency of late from the guidance and swings of extremes to holding it up has been happening.

But one thing is consistent, every now and then we get a crazy run from a model (not just 1) but each one of them have shown something wild at one point.


The conditions for something like that have to be insane for this to happen
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Winter 2020-2021 :cold:

All observations are in Tecumseh, OK unless otherwise noted.

Winter posts are focused mainly for Oklahoma & Texas.

Take any of my forecasts with a grain of salt, refer to the NWS, SPC, and NHC for official information

Never say Never with weather! Because ANYTHING is possible!

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Re: Texas Winter 2020-2021

#2572 Postby orangeblood » Wed Feb 03, 2021 11:54 am

Ntxw wrote:I mean we are looking potentially record breaking -AO. Something close to -6 SD which is absurd. As mentioned before, there is no real consistency of late from the guidance and swings of extremes to holding it up has been happening.

But one thing is consistent, every now and then we get a crazy run from a model (not just 1) but each one of them have shown something wild at one point.


Yep, and latest CMC falls right in line with the GFS....climatologically speaking, we are due for an extreme outbreak like this!!
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Re: Texas Winter 2020-2021

#2573 Postby InfernoFlameCat » Wed Feb 03, 2021 11:55 am

Iceresistance wrote:
Ntxw wrote:I mean we are looking potentially record breaking -AO. Something close to -6 SD which is absurd. As mentioned before, there is no real consistency of late from the guidance and swings of extremes to holding it up has been happening.

But one thing is consistent, every now and then we get a crazy run from a model (not just 1) but each one of them have shown something wild at one point.


The conditions for something like that have to be insane for this to happen

Yeah, I think a 1061 high north of Montana might do it.
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Re: Texas Winter 2020-2021

#2574 Postby Quixotic » Wed Feb 03, 2021 12:01 pm

1061 mb would be close to the contiguous US record of 1064 during the December 83 outbreak.
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Re: Texas Winter 2020-2021

#2575 Postby Ntxw » Wed Feb 03, 2021 12:03 pm

Iceresistance wrote:
Ntxw wrote:I mean we are looking potentially record breaking -AO. Something close to -6 SD which is absurd. As mentioned before, there is no real consistency of late from the guidance and swings of extremes to holding it up has been happening.

But one thing is consistent, every now and then we get a crazy run from a model (not just 1) but each one of them have shown something wild at one point.


The conditions for something like that have to be insane for this to happen


30-40 day composite post SSW (back in early Jan) favors such an outcome and the models looks just about like it. You need an extreme index, like the AO, and we need the coldest air in the world to be on our side (it is). Unlike December and January I think high 1050s is pretty close to record territory for the month.
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Re: Texas Winter 2020-2021

#2576 Postby Ntxw » Wed Feb 03, 2021 12:03 pm

Quixotic wrote:1061 mb would be close to the contiguous US record of 1064 during the December 83 outbreak.


I don't think Feb has a 1060+. If there was you would need to go back to Feb 1899.
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Re: Texas Winter 2020-2021

#2577 Postby Iceresistance » Wed Feb 03, 2021 12:05 pm

12z GFS

Storm #1, I get a glancing blow & the moisture is so close, yet so far away. (But! It's on a South trend! :D )

Image

Gets nasty cold after that for a looooooong while!

Image

Storm #2 (Cold from Storm #1 is still here, with a Second Push!)

Some snow is possible on I-40 from Amarillo to Sallisaw, then Winter mix along I-10 in Louisiana & Texas, & then, it's showtime for ALL of Texas! :slime:

It looks UNREAL! :shocked!:

Image

INASNE amount of snow for Most of Texas! :jump:

Image
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Winter 2020-2021 :cold:

All observations are in Tecumseh, OK unless otherwise noted.

Winter posts are focused mainly for Oklahoma & Texas.

Take any of my forecasts with a grain of salt, refer to the NWS, SPC, and NHC for official information

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Re: Texas Winter 2020-2021

#2578 Postby InfernoFlameCat » Wed Feb 03, 2021 12:09 pm

This model appears to follow what happened in 1899; a massive high followed by a record snowstorm.
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Re: Texas Winter 2020-2021

#2579 Postby bubba hotep » Wed Feb 03, 2021 12:11 pm

South Texas Storms wrote:Snow stretching from Mexico to NC on the 12z GFS in 10 days. Wow that image needs to go in the winter model hall of fame! :lol:


There is actually pretty good ensemble support for something in that range. Actually, more so than many of the other systems we have tracked this winter.

Also, DFW is in the 20s with snow :lockitup:
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Re: Texas Winter 2020-2021

#2580 Postby Haris » Wed Feb 03, 2021 12:12 pm

Every Gefs member shows ice for TX at some point by hour 192
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